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Oh definitely wasn't disagreeing with you. Just emphasizing that even WITH all of our social distancing and lockdown guidelines, we could still approach the number of deaths of a normal flu. Meanwhile, the flu is allowed to permeate our society wherever it pleases totally unchecked since we just regularly pass it around. It's kinda scary to think that we're having these numbers of death even with the strong measure in place.
It's not possible, like others suggest, to compare this to a typical flu season . Hospitals nationwide do not run out of supplies and have beds overflowing and set up refrigerated trucks outside to hold dead bodies. Mortuaries are not overflowing backlogged during regular flu seasons. Which is also why I just DO NOT believe that CA already experienced this if the European version is not worse than the Chinese version. There are no reports of hospitals overflowing or doctors/nurses/EMTs dying left and right or morgues overflowing or entire families dying all at once after celebrating holidays together (this would've hit around Thanksgiving and Christmas if that theory holds up).
The issue with "hospitals and morgues are overflowing" is that we live in a capitalist society and these are generally for-profit businesses (or if non-profit, with tight financial oversight). They very intentionally do not carry excess capacity beyond what is normally needed.
With the possible exception of the hottest of hotspots (NYC, etc), all-cause deaths and hospitalizations are actually lower than normal right now thanks to the lockdown.
The issue with "hospitals and morgues are overflowing" is that we live in a capitalist society and these are generally for-profit businesses (or if non-profit, with tight financial oversight). They very intentionally do not carry excess capacity beyond what is normally needed.
With the possible exception of the hottest of hotspots (NYC, etc), all-cause deaths and hospitalizations are actually lower than normal right now thanks to the lockdown.
On average 7,000 people per day day in April in the US. 2,000 people are dying from Corona and 350 people per day die from non natural causes so I’d highly doubt that math works out.
Last edited by btownboss4; 04-10-2020 at 06:17 PM..
Oh definitely wasn't disagreeing with you. Just emphasizing that even WITH all of our social distancing and lockdown guidelines, we could still approach the number of deaths of a normal flu. Meanwhile, the flu is allowed to permeate our society wherever it pleases totally unchecked since we just regularly pass it around. It's kinda scary to think that we're having these numbers of death even with the strong measure in place.
It's not possible, like others suggest, to compare this to a typical flu season . Hospitals nationwide do not run out of supplies and have beds overflowing and set up refrigerated trucks outside to hold dead bodies. Mortuaries are not overflowing backlogged during regular flu seasons. Which is also why I just DO NOT believe that CA already experienced this if the European version is not worse than the Chinese version. There are no reports of hospitals overflowing or doctors/nurses/EMTs dying left and right or morgues overflowing or entire families dying all at once after celebrating holidays together (this would've hit around Thanksgiving and Christmas if that theory holds up).
I can't imagine a scenario where CA had a widespread infection in the fall and somehow that didn't spread anywhere else in the country over the next few months so only it has lesser mortality rates.
The flu killed 61,000 Americans in 2018 (a particularly bad a season). My belief is that Covid will ultimately be in the same ball park.
That is an estimate. It was not the number of recorded deaths from influenza. You can see the number of recorded deaths by week on the CDC's website below.
The reason for the disparity is because a number of influenza deaths are classified as pneumonia deaths. So the CDC and WHO do a review of the data and estimate the number of influenza deaths and those numbers are subject to revision (no different from monthly jobs numbers). That's why we only saw around 3,000 recorded swine flu deaths in 2009, but the estimates put the number of deaths at anywhere between 8,000 and 18,000. The "Spanish Flu" of 1918 is no different; we're dealing with wide-ranging estimates rather than precise fatality counts.
So if we were to take the data from this week alone, the number of deaths far exceeds the number of influenza and pneumonia-related deaths from the deadliest week of 2018 (week ending January 20, 2018). Over the last 7 days, there have been 11,527 CV-19 deaths compared to 7,038 combined flu and pneumonia deaths for the deadliest week of 2018. And this excludes pneumonia deaths from last week (4,135 deaths). So if you look at all deaths resulting from respiratory failure, 2018 is not even in the same ballpark as COVID-19.
Some people have a very difficult time wrapping their heads around the idea that the number we see today (18,699 deaths) could be significantly higher once mortality statistics have been audited (much the same way some people had a difficult time understanding how 20 cases could become 100,000 cases in a short period of time). Mortality estimates are made every single year, but the tin foil hats will definitely come out when it happens next year for COVID.
A great source for COVID information is Marc Lipsitch at Harvard's School of Public Health. He gets picked up in a lot of publications, but I read his Twitter threads, which helps to cut through a lot of the spin and noise. He's a little more knowledgeable than most of the epidemiology and virology experts that have apparently acquired their qualifications within the last month or so.
I can't imagine a scenario where CA had a widespread infection in the fall and somehow that didn't spread anywhere else in the country over the next few months so only it has lesser mortality rates.
Seriously. It's not like people from CA don't visit other places, especially NYC. The tech industries of both SF and LA are very connected to NYC. Trade and business and law and finance and entertainment are connected between NYC and LA heavily. LA and NYC are a revolving door for friendships/families. Tourists visiting the US often will visit both at the same time. There is no way it was widespread in CA, but never made it to NYC. All it would have take one was one person with it in CA to visit NYC and we'd all have gotten it at some point with us packed on subways and packing into small restaurants/bars.
Seriously. It's not like people from CA don't visit other places, especially NYC. The tech industries of both SF and LA are very connected to NYC. Trade and business and law and finance and entertainment are connected between NYC and LA heavily. LA and NYC are a revolving door for friendships/families. Tourists visiting the US often will visit both at the same time. There is no way it was widespread in CA, but never made it to NYC. All it would have take one was one person with it in CA to visit NYC and we'd all have gotten it at some point with us packed on subways and packing into small restaurants/bars.
If a virus can make its way from Wuhan to the Northern Mariana Islands and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, then it can make its way from NYC and LA to small town America and everywhere else in between.
Cities hit hardest by the COVID-19 pandemic
New York, NY
New Orleans, LA
Detroit, MI
Boston, MA
Indianapolis, IN
Hartford, CT
Chicago, IL
Philadelphia, PA
Seattle, WA
Buffalo, NY
Cities spared by the COVID-19 pandemic
Raleigh, NC
Austin, TX
Minneapolis, MN
San Antonio, TX
Phoenix, AZ
Virginia Beach, VA
Sacramento, CA
Tampa, FL
Grand Rapids, MI
Charlotte, NC
Also as already hypothesized in this thread, I think many Californians(including myself) probably had Covid-19 earlier from Nov-Feb and have since gotten over it while the recent cases in the state might actually be the tail end of the spread.
My wife is an RN in primary care and I remember her telling me how bad, and early starting, the flu season was around the holidays when I had a gnarly one with a cough that lingered for over 2 months. I was also very sluggish the whole time too. I’ve had pneumonia in the past and I was expecting to see it in my chest X-ray but there was nothing? I was shocked as sh** because it felt like pneumonia for 2 months but apparently it wasn’t? Obviously I don’t know if I had it or not, but it would help explain a lot?
Regardless of my personal situation, I think it would be very naive to think it wasn’t here before being discovered seeing California is the gateway to China for the United States. I know we got ahead of it by locking things down while most cities and states went about like it was business as usual, but I firmly believe there’s some herd immunity going on around here.
I usually go grocery shopping 3-4x a week but now I’ve gone 2 times in the last month. When I was there Thursday, and only a couple of days after workers were required to wear a mask, I saw all the same faces on staff (and plenty of new ones). I talked with the manager who I’ve gotten to know and he says no workers have gotten sick which floored me seeing how contagious this is? Despite this, I’m still taking this very seriously, especially because I have an elderly mother living across town.
My wife, BTW, has had several patients get it and go to the ICU and put on ventilators (one dying) shortly after seeing her, but they all had very serious health issues before hand. She’s had a couple of coworkers test positive and everyone has their temperature checked before walking in the building, staff included. Needless to say while I’m trying to keep it cool, it’s still very nerve wracking in my house.
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Cities Hit Hardest by the COVID-19 Pandemic
