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The Bay Area has done well all things considered. Early social distancing actions seem to have helped.
Yes, we can opine and downplay this but CA as a whole has really dodged a bullet and early, proactive measures like sheltering millions of people in place, has reduced the number of infected.
We are in no way out of the woods, and this is nothing to brag about, but rather we should be cautiously optimistic and continue doing what we've been doing to avoid infection.
Hopefully the current downward trend in new cases continues.
Yes, we can opine and downplay this but CA as a whole has really dodged a bullet and early, proactive measures like sheltering millions of people in place, has reduced the number of infected.
We are in no way out of the woods, and this is nothing to brag about, but rather we should be cautiously optimistic and continue doing what we've been doing to avoid infection.
Hopefully the current downward trend in new cases continues.
I think there are a couple other factors
1) since it’s a respitory illness early cases in the North could be masked by the flu being more precedent anyway this masking the outbreak until it was wider spread
2) the Feds were very fast to curtail Asian Travel but very slow to do it vs European trave
3) there is some randomness to it, most states other than NY are really roughly in the same boat.
1) since it’s a respitory illness early cases in the North could be masked by the flu being more precedent anyway this masking the outbreak until it was wider spread
2) the Feds were very fast to curtail Asian Travel but very slow to do it vs European trave
3) there is some randomness to it, most states other than NY are really roughly in the same boat.
Agreed.
Also as already hypothesized in this thread, I think many Californians(including myself) probably had Covid-19 earlier from Nov-Feb and have since gotten over it while the recent cases in the state might actually be the tail end of the spread.
Also as already hypothesized in this thread, I think many Californians(including myself) probably had Covid-19 earlier from Nov-Feb and have since gotten over it while the recent cases in the state might actually be the tail end of the spread.
I literally just on the news that some South Korea doctors hypothesize that some people can, in fact, become reinfected with it. So maybe the strain that hit CA at first wasn't as deadly, but built a sorta kinda immunity. Then when this more deadly wave came into the US, CA had some immunity, but went into lockdown very quickly + was not getting the same amount of travel inward from Europe where the worse version of the virus was developing.
In absolute numbers, COVID-19 is killing many more people than the flu. Putting aside the "there could be 332 million asymptomatic cases in America argument," influenza hasn't killed 10,000+ people in a single week since 1918. Last week's death toll was significantly higher than the combined number of influenza and pneumonia fatalities in 2018, which was the deadliest influenza season the U.S. had experienced in the preceding 50 years.
It's hard to compare the extent of flu mortality to COVID mortality because we essentially allow the flu to run wild (fewer than half of Americans receive a flu vaccine each year) while we impose relatively draconian measures to mitigate CV-19. To know for sure whether CV-19 is deadlier than the flu, we'd need to let people go back to business as usual and then count the body bags.
It should also be stated that we won't have a true count on CV deaths until some time from now. For example, in 2009 there were only 3,433 confirmed H1N1 related-deaths, meaning deaths among people who had tested positive for the virus. The estimated death toll--which is the figured that gets tossed around in the media--was several times higher than that. It could be the case that the estimated number of COVID-related deaths ends up being much higher than the recorded count.
The flu killed 61,000 Americans in 2018 (a particularly bad a season). My belief is that Covid will ultimately be in the same ball park.
"deaths per week" is indicative of the speed of spread. I already said that Covid is clearly much more contagious than the flu. Part of that is the lack of immunity, but also the long period of asymptomatic spread.
The flu killed 61,000 Americans in 2018 (a particularly bad a season). My belief is that Covid will ultimately be in the same ball park.
"deaths per week" is indicative of the speed of spread. I already said that Covid is clearly much more contagious than the flu. Part of that is the lack of immunity, but also the long period of asymptomatic spread.
Even if we don't get to 61k, that's with everyone in contact with each other daily. Offices bars restaurants stores all open. People packing into subways and buses and trains. That has to be taken into consideration.
In absolute numbers, COVID-19 is killing many more people than the flu. Putting aside the "there could be 332 million asymptomatic cases in America argument," influenza hasn't killed 10,000+ people in a single week since 1918. Last week's death toll was significantly higher than the combined number of influenza and pneumonia fatalities in 2018, which was the deadliest influenza season the U.S. had experienced in the preceding 50 years.
It's hard to compare the extent of flu mortality to COVID mortality because we essentially allow the flu to run wild (fewer than half of Americans receive a flu vaccine each year) while we impose relatively draconian measures to mitigate CV-19. To know for sure whether CV-19 is deadlier than the flu, we'd need to let people go back to business as usual and then count the body bags.
It should also be stated that we won't have a true count on CV deaths until some time from now. For example, in 2009 there were only 3,433 confirmed H1N1 related-deaths, meaning deaths among people who had tested positive for the virus. The estimated death toll--which is the figured that gets tossed around in the media--was several times higher than that. It could be the case that the estimated number of COVID-related deaths ends up being much higher than the recorded count.
Something to consider:
We have a vaccine and effective treatment for the flu that’s widely available. We have neither for the coronavirus. When those things do become available for the coronavirus, we will have a better idea of how it actually relates to the flu in killing power.
I literally just on the news that some South Korea doctors hypothesize that some people can, in fact, become reinfected with it. So maybe the strain that hit CA at first wasn't as deadly, but built a sorta kinda immunity. Then when this more deadly wave came into the US, CA had some immunity, but went into lockdown very quickly + was not getting the same amount of travel inward from Europe where the worse version of the virus was developing.
The stains are almost identical to one another so that probably isn’t it. Plus, according to the most recent data, no one strain is more deadly than another.
What’s more likely is that it’s a mix of false positives and a case of someone who has already recovered being exposed to large amounts of the virus a second time. It’s important to remember that the PCR test originally used had a 30-50% accuracy rate.
Even if we don't get to 61k, that's with everyone in contact with each other daily. Offices bars restaurants stores all open. People packing into subways and buses and trains. That has to be taken into consideration.
Oh I agree. To be clear, I am not saying that Coronavirus is "just a flu".
What I'm saying is that the level of danger to an individual who gets is in the same ballpark. I'm confident that the death rate, when considering ALL cases, not just confirmed ones, is nowhere near the 2% quoted in a previous post.
This thing is very capable of finishing off people who are close to dieing from other issues, but the danger to otherwise healthy people is very anecdotal and overstated in the media. What makes this scary is how extremely contagious it is. It's basically flu-like in severity but common cold-like in contagiousness.
Oh I agree. To be clear, I am not saying that Coronavirus is "just a flu".
What I'm saying is that the level of danger to an individual who gets is in the same ballpark. I'm confident that the death rate, when considering ALL cases, not just confirmed ones, is nowhere near the 2% quoted in a previous post.
This thing is very capable of finishing off people who are close to dieing from other issues, but the danger to otherwise healthy people is very anecdotal and overstated in the media. What makes this scary is how extremely contagious it is. It's basically flu-like in severity but common cold-like in contagiousness.
Oh definitely wasn't disagreeing with you. Just emphasizing that even WITH all of our social distancing and lockdown guidelines, we could still approach the number of deaths of a normal flu. Meanwhile, the flu is allowed to permeate our society wherever it pleases totally unchecked since we just regularly pass it around. It's kinda scary to think that we're having these numbers of death even with the strong measure in place.
It's not possible, like others suggest, to compare this to a typical flu season . Hospitals nationwide do not run out of supplies and have beds overflowing and set up refrigerated trucks outside to hold dead bodies. Mortuaries are not overflowing backlogged during regular flu seasons. Which is also why I just DO NOT believe that CA already experienced this if the European version is not worse than the Chinese version. There are no reports of hospitals overflowing or doctors/nurses/EMTs dying left and right or morgues overflowing or entire families dying all at once after celebrating holidays together (this would've hit around Thanksgiving and Christmas if that theory holds up).
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