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Here's some interesting data (this is CityData after all) regarding the two MSAs and Nashville's CSA.
Austin MSA: Census 2020 was 2,283,371 in 4219 square miles with a growth rate of 2.9% per annum this past decade. The density was 541 ppl/m2
Austin doesn't have a CSA.
Nashville MSA: Census 2020 was 1,989,519 in 5690 square miles with a growth rate of 1.9% per annum this past decade. The density was 350 ppl/m2
Nashville CSA: Census 2020 was 2,118,233 in 7156 square miles with a growth rate of 1.9% per annum this past decade. The density was 296 ppl/m2.
At its most comparable in population (MSA to CSA), Austin has grown faster, is more populated, and almost twice as dense. In short, it added more people and grew faster in 41% less land area than greater Nashville. A similar story can be told regarding the comparison of city proper to city proper, where Austin nearly doubled the absolute population gain of Nashville this past decade.
Keep in mind that about a 1/3 of Nashville's core county (Davidson) is un-developable land. Yes - it's sprawly, but the density figures are a bit misleading. It's denser in the core than one would think (after all - I was born and raised in the core area of the city so first hand experience here lol).
Keep in mind that about a 1/3 of Nashville's core county (Davidson) is un-developable land. Yes - it's sprawly, but the density figures are a bit misleading. It's denser in the core than one would think (after all - I was born and raised in the core area of the city so first hand experience here lol).
Also, keep in mind that Montgomery county, which includes Clarksville, is left completely out of Nashville's metro population. Several people from Montgomery, and to a lesser extent Hickman county, commute each day to work in Nashville. Adding Montgomery County and recently dropped Hickman county would give Nashville an additional 241,000 people.This is a more accurate representation.
Nashville msa final tally = 2,230,519
Last edited by Shakeesha; 10-27-2021 at 06:08 PM..
Sounds promising. It’s been a long time since I’ve seen Nashville in person. I guess I need to stop by and see what’s changed.
It really is impressive how much it has changed just in the last 10 years. Nashville was thought of as a sleepy 9-5 city and had a lackluster skyline. I think for this decade the city is more focused on connecting neighborhoods and attracting big business. Several mixed-use projects help to highlight Nashville's diverse culture.
Also, keep in mind that Montgomery county, which includes Clarksville, is left completely out of Nashville's metro population. Several people from Montgomery, and to a lesser extent Hickman county, commute each day to work in Nashville. Adding Montgomery County and recently dropped Hickman county would give Nashville an additional 241,000 people.This is a more accurate representation.
Nashville msa final tally = 2,230,519
I was curious if commuter data for TN counties was easy to come by, so I googled it and it looks like it is. According to 2018 data, it looks like 12% of commuters from Montgomery travel into Davidson for work or about 11K folks out of a total of almost 90K workers that live in Montgomery (61K live and work in the county). That doesn't meet the 25% threshold for MSA inclusion but within two years' time, it's possible that 12% may have increased to 15% to meet the threshold for CSA inclusion. To be fair, it's possible that commuter outflow to Davidson plus at least one other MSA county combined meets either threshold but I was just looking at Davidson.
Kudos to TN for making this data easy to find and having it in a user-friendly format.
Also, keep in mind that Montgomery county, which includes Clarksville, is left completely out of Nashville's metro population. Several people from Montgomery, and to a lesser extent Hickman county, commute each day to work in Nashville. Adding Montgomery County and recently dropped Hickman county would give Nashville an additional 241,000 people.This is a more accurate representation.
Nashville msa final tally = 2,230,519
This thread is getting hilarious. MSAs are legally designated areas. They do change but no individual on a message board gets to define them. By the above pseudo-logic, I could also claim that I know many individuals from Belton, Killeen and Fort Hood, and I do, who commute to Austin and many more than I know do, so let's add those 475 K people to the Austin MSA and while we are at it, many people commute from New Braunfels which is actually closer to Austin than Clarksville is to Nashville so let's add that 80K too, which gets the Austin MSA to 3 million, and why not add all of San Antonio - there is continuous development between the two cities so the Austin msa final tally is around 5.5 million...This is ridiculous, but no more so than the claim above.
The desperation of Nashville boosters to try and prove the statistically impossible, ie that Nashville can catch, let alone overtake Austin by 2030 reduces them to such absurdities as attempting to redefine the Nashville msa, claims that Nashville is an 8 hour drive to Chicago will somehow miraculously help it grow faster, that since Nashville was bigger than Austin in 1940 it will be bigger in 2030, that when presented with density data that shows Austin has significantly higher population density that Nashville has large tracts of undevelopable land as if the same if were not true for Austin. And while we are on urbanity, Austin's core is significantly more urban than Nashville's in both the built environment and population density. Both cities are sprawlsville and so the numbers are pathetic, but here they are: Nashville has ONE zip code with a population density over 5 K per square mile, Austin has 6, including one over 11K. Nashville's highest is around 6,5 K. There is not a SINGLE Nashville neighborhood with a walk score over 90. Granted Austin only has one, but Austin has 7 neighborhoods over 80 and Nashville has only 2. Metrics never tell the whole story but these disparities cannot be wished away.
Despite all the unsubstantiated claims about Nashville's tourism industry - and tourism economic impact stats are notoriously difficult - Austin's tourism economy is close to 50% larger than Nashville's. I would agree that Nashville's music industry is more sophisticated, but Austin has DOUBLE the number of live music venues. Great that Nashville got an Oracle campus, Austin got the headquarters and the Tesla plant and the Tesla headquarters. And on and on . . .
Nashville is doing fabulously and better than any other MSA in its tier besides Austin. Enjoy it. There are many subjective reasons to prefer Nashville to Austin. I think suburban Nashville is much nicer than suburban Austin. I am not a suburb person but I would much rather live in Nashville's Williamson county than Austin's, though downtown Georgetown is pretty sweet. I would also take Belle Meade over West Lake Hills unless I were right on Lake Austin. Nashville is objectively better for African Americans in the same way that Austin is objectively better for Latinos, Asian Americans and LGBTQ people. And if you care about pro-sports - easily Nashville.
But in terms of economic and population growth - the topic of this thread - the facts all show that in 2021, Austin is larger, richer, safer, better-educated, building more, growing faster, attracting more corporate relocations, incubating more start-ups, has higher wages. And short of a meteor wiping out central Austin, the trends all show this is most likely to continue for at least the next ten years.
The most likely scenario in 2030 is that Austin will double its lead on Nashville. Currently, Austin is ahead in GDP by around $20 billion, look for that to double to around $40 billion by 2030. In terms of population the current lead of around 250K will be closer to half a million.
I think it is great the Nashville got the announcement of a 2.5 billion dollar development. These kind of things are a bit old news in Austin . . .
Civic pride is strong in both Austin and Nashville, and is a great thing, but not if it leads to denialism, goal-post shifting, and frantic off the point scrambling. The clear and incontrovertible answer to the OP's question can only be a resounding NO.
Both MSAs are will probably jump a tier by 2030: If present trends continue, Austin could be a top 20 MSA and Nashville will probably be a top 30 one. Currently Austin is a top 30 MSA, and Nashville is a top 40 one.
The desperation of Nashville boosters to try and prove the statistically impossible, ie that Nashville can catch, let alone overtake Austin by 2030 reduces them to such absurdities as attempting to redefine the Nashville msa, claims that Nashville is an 8 hour drive to Chicago will somehow miraculously help it grow faster, that since Nashville was bigger than Austin in 1940 it will be bigger in 2030, that when presented with density data that shows Austin has significantly higher population density that Nashville has large tracts of undevelopable land as if the same if were not true for Austin. And while we are on urbanity, Austin's core is significantly more urban than Nashville's in both the built environment and population density. Both cities are sprawlsville and so the numbers are pathetic, but here they are: Nashville has ONE zip code with a population density over 5 K per square mile, Austin has 6, including one over 11K. Nashville's highest is around 6,5 K. There is not a SINGLE Nashville neighborhood with a walk score over 90. Granted Austin only has one, but Austin has 7 neighborhoods over 80 and Nashville has only 2. Metrics never tell the whole story but these disparities cannot be wished away.
Despite all the unsubstantiated claims about Nashville's tourism industry - and tourism economic impact stats are notoriously difficult - Austin's tourism economy is close to 50% larger than Nashville's. I would agree that Nashville's music industry is more sophisticated, but Austin has DOUBLE the number of live music venues. Great that Nashville got an Oracle campus, Austin got the headquarters and the Tesla plant and the Tesla headquarters. And on and on . . .
.
Every data point past, present and future points to Austin growing faster. It's bigger, denser, more educated, more expensive but higher median income. And, no data points point to Nashville closing the gap.
Austinites shy away from growth, Nashvillians crave it. And yet, Austin is still winning this race.
8 hour trip to Chicago? Knoxville is down the road? Ok.
Last edited by JMT; 10-28-2021 at 11:51 AM..
Reason: Discuss the topic, not other posters.
This thread is getting hilarious. MSAs are legally designated areas. They do change but no individual on a message board gets to define them. By the above pseudo-logic, I could also claim that I know many individuals from Belton, Killeen and Fort Hood, and I do, who commute to Austin and many more than I know do, so let's add those 475 K people to the Austin MSA and while we are at it, many people commute from New Braunfels which is actually closer to Austin than Clarksville is to Nashville so let's add that 80K too, which gets the Austin MSA to 3 million, and why not add all of San Antonio - there is continuous development between the two cities so the Austin msa final tally is around 5.5 million...This is ridiculous, but no more so than the claim above.
The desperation of Nashville boosters to try and prove the statistically impossible, ie that Nashville can catch, let alone overtake Austin by 2030 reduces them to such absurdities as attempting to redefine the Nashville msa, claims that Nashville is an 8 hour drive to Chicago will somehow miraculously help it grow faster, that since Nashville was bigger than Austin in 1940 it will be bigger in 2030, that when presented with density data that shows Austin has significantly higher population density that Nashville has large tracts of undevelopable land as if the same if were not true for Austin. And while we are on urbanity, Austin's core is significantly more urban than Nashville's in both the built environment and population density. Both cities are sprawlsville and so the numbers are pathetic, but here they are: Nashville has ONE zip code with a population density over 5 K per square mile, Austin has 6, including one over 11K. Nashville's highest is around 6,5 K. There is not a SINGLE Nashville neighborhood with a walk score over 90. Granted Austin only has one, but Austin has 7 neighborhoods over 80 and Nashville has only 2. Metrics never tell the whole story but these disparities cannot be wished away.
Despite all the unsubstantiated claims about Nashville's tourism industry - and tourism economic impact stats are notoriously difficult - Austin's tourism economy is close to 50% larger than Nashville's. I would agree that Nashville's music industry is more sophisticated, but Austin has DOUBLE the number of live music venues. Great that Nashville got an Oracle campus, Austin got the headquarters and the Tesla plant and the Tesla headquarters. And on and on . . .
Nashville is doing fabulously and better than any other MSA in its tier besides Austin. Enjoy it. There are many subjective reasons to prefer Nashville to Austin. I think suburban Nashville is much nicer than suburban Austin. I am not a suburb person but I would much rather live in Nashville's Williamson county than Austin's, though downtown Georgetown is pretty sweet. I would also take Belle Meade over West Lake Hills unless I were right on Lake Austin. Nashville is objectively better for African Americans in the same way that Austin is objectively better for Latinos, Asian Americans and LGBTQ people. And if you care about pro-sports - easily Nashville.
But in terms of economic and population growth - the topic of this thread - the facts all show that in 2021, Austin is larger, richer, safer, better-educated, building more, growing faster, attracting more corporate relocations, incubating more start-ups, has higher wages. And short of a meteor wiping out central Austin, the trends all show this is most likely to continue for at least the next ten years.
The most likely scenario in 2030 is that Austin will double its lead on Nashville. Currently, Austin is ahead in GDP by around $20 billion, look for that to double to around $40 billion by 2030. In terms of population the current lead of around 250K will be closer to half a million.
I think it is great the Nashville got the announcement of a 2.5 billion dollar development. These kind of things are a bit old news in Austin . . .
Civic pride is strong in both Austin and Nashville, and is a great thing, but not if it leads to denialism, goal-post shifting, and frantic off the point scrambling. The clear and incontrovertible answer to the OP's question can only be a resounding NO.
Both MSAs are will probably jump a tier by 2030: If present trends continue, Austin could be a top 20 MSA and Nashville will probably be a top 30 one. Currently Austin is a top 30 MSA, and Nashville is a top 40 one.
Nashville is also invading Austin more than vice versa. The owners of the Grand Ole Opry just bought the ACL Moody Theater in Austin. LOL.
You could've saved yourself a bunch of time by not writing this. You'll find those of us who know Nashville a reasonable group of folks. No one is saying Nashville is larger than Austin. Folks are just providing additional context. Hopefully, that will free-up your time going forward.
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