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Austin will probably still be ahead in the future, but maybe not as much as we think. Nashville does have Amazon, and rumors are Amazon might expand from the proposed 5k jobs with the center of excellence. Also, GM is planning on having EV production and development at the new plant they're building in Spring Hill.
We already have a decent amount of investments from Nissan, GM, and Mitsubishi. If Volkswagen decided to get serious, they could build an office or an extra manufacturing plant in the Nashville metro.
Nashville's healthcare industry is no joke as well. I also heard Amazon is trying to get into the healthcare industry. Both cities will probably still be in the same peer group in the future, but Austin will probably be a nudge higher. Austin is somewhat attempting to add a transit system. Meanwhile, Nashville is upgrading their airport. Ironically both need to work on their infrastructure, especially Nashville. One thing Nashville has over Austin is their tourist industry. Austin doesn't even come close to it.
Though Austin is a bit ahead of Nashville at the moment, it's incredibly naive to believe that that light rail (extremely financially inefficient) and a soccer stadium will ensure Austin's, or any area's, dominance. Austin's COL is increasing above the national average, which is more significant that some realize. I've visited Austin several times. For an area of 2+ million, there is very little to do in terms of unique recreational assets (ie things that most other metro do not have). That is very important to the average American family. If some who have been flooding from CA to Austin carry the same mindsets with them to Austin, Austin WILL level off and lose its competitive edge. You can't ignore financial realities simply because you have a personal affinity with walkability and trains. That may be what YOU prefer, but the average American wants a high quality of life they can afford and knows that you can't have everything. You have to pick. Though light rail is nice, the cost-to-benefit ratio in terms of ridership vs. $$ is foolish. No wise person would do that in their personal finances. Most of what is being stated is very subjective based in personal tastes. Too, what does "overtake" mean? "Overtake" in what way? In terms of livability, there's nothing to "overtake". I'm familiar with both cities/metros and been to both numerous times. I much prefer Nashville to Austin. So, again, subjective. You guys are totally underestimating Nashville.
With Oracle and General Motors both investing billions, can we safely assume Nashville > Austin?
And that new Soccer stadium
A couple of companies and a soccer stadium won't do it. It's still just soccer.
I will give Nashville credit for managing to have both football and hockey teams.
Those are two things to do there that Austin doesn't have that help put Nashville in a national spotlight for people that aren't chasing the latest trendy move-to destination.
I'd rather see Austin or San Antonio get MLB because between the two of them there should be enough population to support it. Nashville, not so much, and also the southeast in general doesn't have the best record of supporting baseball.
It's kind of odd Austin doesn't have something like that already.
Outside of pro sports, Austin is still rapidly growing. I don't see Nashville overtaking it anytime soon.
Austin and San Antonio are already joined at the hip, so they could easily be the next metroplex or whatever, making it more than double the size of Nashville.
I'll join the chorus here. Nashville is doing fantastically as far as growth is concerned, but Austin is doing just that much better. In 2020, they both had an impressive amount of new housing units constructed - 25k for Nashville and 40k for Austin.
Nashville isn't poised to surpass Austin in the way that it is poised to surpass Cleveland, Cincinnati, or Pittsburgh. The MSA is more than likely on track to surpass each of those metros by the end of the decade and in many ways, it is surpassing each of those in amenities already. Meanwhile, Austin has its sights set on Portland and Baltimore in regard to amenities and MSA.
I totally agree with this post.
Nashville will surpass Cleveland, Cincinnati and Kansas City in the next decade, and most likely St Louis and Baltimore by 2040. But Austin will keep pushing higher and faster with its growth than Nashville.
Austin has way too much momentum and it won't be slowing down anytime soon. Nashville won't either, but it will still be a bit behind Austin with economic and population growth.
Austin lags behind in pro sports for the time being, but Nashville lags behind without a rail plan for the time being.
Last edited by jjbradleynyc; 04-24-2021 at 08:18 AM..
Nashville's healthcare industry is no joke as well. I also heard Amazon is trying to get into the healthcare industry. Both cities will probably still be in the same peer group in the future, but Austin will probably be a nudge higher. Austin is somewhat attempting to add a transit system. Meanwhile, Nashville is upgrading their airport. Ironically both need to work on their infrastructure, especially Nashville. One thing Nashville has over Austin is their tourist industry. Austin doesn't even come close to it.
How is that exactly? I'm pretty sure that Austin gets more annual visitors and has more hotel rooms than does Nashville.
One big difference is wages are much higher in Austin. Among metros with more than 500,000 jobs, Austin is now 7th in avg wages behind the Bay Area, Seattle, Boston, DC, New York, and Denver. Nashville's actually below nat'l average in terms of its avg wages.
That's true, I wonder how much of it are actual tourist vs business travel. Then again being in-between 3 major US metros helps.
To me they look pretty similar in terms of tourism. Big weekend party hubs, bachelorette parties, festivals, football games, etc. Not really places that are getting lots of international tourism or family vacations.
Who determines when a city actually "overtakes" another city? I would think that is a subjective thing.
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