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Texas’ growth is incredible and I doubt it will slow down.
Generally AAs are moving to the south for COL and jobs, in that order. Most of the people moving are college educated and/or have families. Certain areas, such as Baltimore, St Louis, Birmingham, are affordable but have other deeply entrenched issues like crime, poor schools etc.
Your fourth point re: AA and foreign born growth being unrelated is incorrect in places like Atlanta, Houston and Dallas. All three have also seen large increases in the Caribbean and African populations.
Atlanta and Charlotte are no longer "cheap" though. It costs as much to live in those cities now as many cities in the Northeast.
If people were moving down south solely due to COL, they would choose Mississippi and Alabama over places like Atlanta, Dallas, and Houston.
This is kind of the deal anywhere rural and cheap.
I live in a small city in northeast TN. There has never been much in the way of professional work here. There are some fairly highly paid jobs - a Fortune 500 chemical company, lawyers/doctors/pharmacists that you'll find anywhere, some higher end jobs with the regional health system, but that's really about it. Wages for the jobs we do have are quite low.
Pre-pandemic, we could at least get by on the wages because the property prices were low. That's not really true anymore, but wages haven't gone up with the prices.
A white collar job that might pay $45k here could pay $70k-$80k in Atlanta. That's assuming you can find a job to begin with. Also, if your job vaporizes here, you're probably having to move to find something comparable. That's probably not the case in a larger metro.
Which cities in the Northeast are as cheap as Atlanta and Charlotte?
Most, outside of the usual suspect of Bos, NYC.
Worcester, PVD (outside of the Eastside), Hartford, Albany, Manchester, Lowell, New Bedford, Fall River, Bridgeport, New london, Harrisburg, Pittsburg, etc. Born and raised in the NE.
Worcester, PVD (outside of the Eastside), Hartford, Albany, Manchester, Lowell, New Bedford, Fall River, Bridgeport, New london, Harrisburg, Pittsburg, etc. Born and raised in the NE.
Thats apples to orange though- non of those cities are on a tier or offer the amenities that Atlanta and Charlotte do- a point I keep going back too..
As a 27 year old black man living in Philadelphia, you couldn't pay me to move down South. Outside of Philly, there are only a few cities I'd consider moving to: Boston, NYC, DC (city proper or Alexandria, VA only), Chicago, SF, Seattle, or potentially Denver. I understand why the South appeals to some people, especially those who grew up in the Northeastern US; however, I would quickly grow bored and frustrated down there. I own a nice house in a safe, walkable, transit-accessible neighborhood in Northwest Philly. Everything I want and need is a short train or bus ride away. The access to PA's wilderness in the north and west, and the Jersey Shore to the south and east sweetens the deal. If living a normal life requires car ownership, then I see very few redeeming qualities about those communities. There aren't a ton of walkable communities with transit in the South.
It's a shame that so many urban black neighborhoods are in the states of disarray that they're in, as I believe that too many black people have had negative interactions with urban environments. As someone who grew up in the city, it's so easy to assign a negative connotation to dense urban neighborhoods if the one you grew up in was a chaotic one. Walkability, transit accesibility, and architectural detail are such important attributes to me, and it's a shame that I know few other black people who share these ideals.
Same, except not San Fran.
In Boston I wasn't used to black neighborhoods in disarray of course... and crime and jobs weren't a push factor. I actually had the opportunity to get a master's in Education for free from BC and was living for free at my place of employment.
I only ever moved to Maryland for love and just to explore and spread my wings. I kinda got stuck though.
The numbers we see in decline aren't significant for a lot of Northeastern cities, and in Boston case, isn't a decline but an increase eif you simply use 5-year estimates rather than 2021 estimates or compare 2010 to 2021 or 2011 to 2019.
So to me, it seems a larger push factor is occurring in midwestern areas. But also each city has a very different trajectory and different micro needs an issue we probably cant get into here reasonably.
Thats apples to orange though- non of those cities are on a tier or offer the amenities that Atlanta and Charlotte do- a point I keep going back too..
A point you challenged me on, I answered, and you didn't respond to was the fact that there are still a good amount of options that aren't DFW, Houston, Atlanta, or Charlotte, that would fit the bill. The real question is "why is the growth so concentrated among just a few metro areas?". It isn't the case with the other groups.
For reference, here are the GDP per capita of the six cities in question. I am including Vegas and Phoenix as they have a strong 5th and 6th place for African American re-location:
Cost of living index. This is harder to measure, so Ill use NYC's cost of living as a baseline. The number below represents how much you'd need to make per metro area to have the same life style as $100,000 in the NYC metro:
Metro Areas with similar costs of living and unemployment rates that still have healthy African American populations.
Miami/Fort Lauderdale
GDP per Capita: $68,477
Unemployment Rate: 2.2%
COL: $88,835
Nashville
GDP per Capita: $81,010
Unemployment Rate: 2.5%
COL: $77,923
Denver
GDP per Capita: $85,246
Unemployment Rate: 2.7%
COL: $86,917
Birmingham
GDP per Capita: $63,606
Unemployment Rate: 1.8%
COL: $72,608
Minneapolis/St. Paul:
GDP per Capita: $80,468
Unemployment Rate: 2.8%
COL: $83,565
Raleigh
GDP per Capita: $74,763
Unemployment Rate: 3.1%
COL: $78,691
Don't think I'm implying that these should be growing like ATL, HOU, DFW, and Charlotte. But it is blatantly obvious: African American growth is very concentrated in just a few places. There has to be a complex list of reasons. Some more pronounced than others I know, but "it's cheaper and they are still big cities" cannot possibly be the whole explanation.
So Denver is out- more expensive than the rest, especially housing.
MPLS is same price and cold as hell and has horrible black metrics
Birmingham is not in the same sphere for GDP
Raleigh is popular with folks for relcation- for sure
Miami is most expensive of the list, GDP isn't there, and its a large if not mostly foreign-born black population and has horrible terrible laws in the state.
Vegas and Phoneix are growing and in the southwest not the South. I'd move to Vegas in a heartbeat if I could.
So the only valid one here that fits your mold of why isn't it more popular is Nasvhille and that's probably because its too close to Atlanta and perceived as "White Atlanta" but ain't its black population growing?
Thats apples to orange though- non of those cities are on a tier or offer the amenities that Atlanta and Charlotte do- a point I keep going back too..
I agree. But I was just responding to the poster's question. I used to live in Milton, MA and Providence, and Newport. But the few nice places in the NE (Bos, NY and parts of the metro) are unattainable for most people. What's left is a collection of unattractive cities that many do not think to be wise to buy a home in. The big metros of the South appear more attractive when the only option is a slew of struggling small and midsized cities in the NE.
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