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I did an amenities check off on one of your threads concerning Charlotte and Raleigh. The gap was not large, Charlotte having an edge with pro sports, higher end shopping, and transit. Raleigh had the edge in cultural institutions, college sports, higher regarded restaurants. Charlotte is bigger and has more to do, but the Triangle more than held its own. This idea that the Triangle is bereft of amenities is a false one. It’s an exceedingly rich area with extremely deep cultural amenities.
Houston and Atlanta have separated themselves from the other two for me. Obviously not to the degree of belonging in their own tier, that'll probably never happen, but I place some significance on them being the two that are the singular large city driving success in their regions...
These four will be the Top 4 for the foreseeable future but Hou and Atl, interchangeably, are the Top 2...
II.
Charlotte, Austin, Orlando, Tampa, Nashville, San Antonio, Fort Worth
Will be awhile before any of these cities truly threaten the next tier although right now, Atx's future looks scorching bright. As is, its catapulted towards the top of this tier in such short order its astounding. I still have it behind Clt right now, and probably until Clt loses the population and GDP advantage, which could come this decade. But Clt has been playing at this level for longer and certainly isn't resting so it deserves the benefit of the doubt...
For those who aren't into considering FW in its own merits, I get it, and its inclusion with Dallas in Tier I doesn't bump Dallas over the Top 2 to me. As is FW certainly can make its own case and fits in this group of cities, albeit at the basement...
Nashville is increasingly popular but at best its mid-tier, which shouldn't be taken as a slight---->10-12 years ago Nashville was not even in this tier. Its just that for now I think the Fla metros, Clt, Atx are more established, more dynamic, or both...
III.
Raleigh, Richmond, Jacksonville, New Orleans, Louisville, Memphis, Oklahoma City, Virginia Beach, Birmingham
This tier is a half-decade or less from seeing some enormous change...
Rgh has catapulted itself to the top of the tier, interchangeable with Richmond. There's still some sizable distance to the next tier though, but as with Atx, Rgh's future looks huge to a lesser degree, meaning in a decade it probably firmly belongs in the next group...
Assuredly some of you are itching to include Rgh in Tier II already and as an entire metropolis I guess you could make that case. The issue here is it would still lag significantly in some QOL criteria compared to Tier II cities, even taken as the entire Triangle, with respect to transit infrastructure, spheres of influence, depth and scope of entertainment options, urbanity/urban infrastructure, etc. I live here and while I absolutely view The Triangle as one metro, I don't view "Triangle" and "Raleigh" as synonymous and contrary to Triangle CD heads, neither do the vast majority of people here...
Rgh has enough reach to stand on its own within the larger region but Rgh (the Rgh part of Triangle) in and of itself isn't at the next level yet, and neither is Richmond. More likely what I see occurring in short time is those two, and possibly Jax, distancing themselves to such a degree that they create their own tier, as Rich is also putting considerable distance on the rest of its peers as well (just not as rapidly as Rgh, perhaps)...
The other change is Bham and VB are in danger of being left behind and possibly being joined by the cities of the following tier in a decade. Being from Va and having lived in both, I can directly compare Rich and VB (love em both tremendously) and there continues to be annual widening between the two. As of now I keep them in the same general "league" of cities but this is getting close...
Nola is getting a legacy stamp at this point. I know some of you will argue for its inclusion at Tier II but it just doesn't fit there and is no longer at the top of Tier III...
IV.
Tulsa, Charleston, Greenville, Knoxville, Columbia, Baton Rouge
The SC trifecta is closing in strong in this tier, at this point I do feel Tulsa particularly is pushing towards possibly a separate tier with Bham but it also doesn't have a huge gap in any of these cities...
V.
Durham, Greensboro, Winston-Salem, Little Rock, are the definites, possibly 3-5 more cities
Durm will leap from these cities as soon as it reaches 800,000, its already blowing them all out in growth....
I love coming back to this thread as new info breeds reconsideration, but I'm pretty sold on where I have them all currently...
I'm Trying to figure it How have Atlanta and Houston have separately themselves from Dallas ..Dallas has convincingly surpassed Houston not only in Population Growth but also in Economic GDP growth... And It has 1.5 well now 1.7 going on 2.0 million More People than Atlanta If Anything it could be argued that's it's sits at the Top of This Tier I pack
The only way I could see your line of thinking is if You are counting Dallas as Separate from Forth Worth...As A Stand Alone City (i.e just the Dallas component/ half of dfw) then Yea Dallas may Fall behind Atl and Houston, And Surly as A CITY , just Strictly speaking City Limits Houston crushes Dallas, Houston as A CITY is a juggernaut...But the entire DFW!? No way does DFW play second fiddle to Atlanta unless you factor in the number of rap videos as your criteria
Put Another way Dallas is clawing away at Chicago's heels...does anybody think Atlanta is evening approaching Chicago???
Also I would pull Little rock up to Knoxville's tier. They feel about the same to me and I've been to both . nearly identical city and metro population they're both in the 700,000-800,000 range (metro) and 200,000 range (city)
Last edited by BlueRedTide; 12-15-2020 at 05:41 AM..
^^^ Dallas is more important than Atlanta and Houston. And there should be a 1b for Miami as it falls further behind the others. It’s still the the most popular brand, that’s it.
As far as second tier
I would still couple Raleigh as Raleigh-Durham and put it in this tier where it belongs. Just at the bottom of it. Tampa is at the top of 2 imo. Charlotte, Nash, ATX and ORL interchangeable. SA might need to drop
I Once Thought like many of you That Raleigh belongs in Tier II
But once you delve into the actual data , demographic and economic information it becomes clear, that Raleigh-Durham just doesn't fit there yet and it falls quite short of the Tier II cities. And It Correctly belongs at the Top of Tier III
Tampa being at the top of Tier II is understandable and debatable, dropping San Antonio is laughable and understandable but drop it to where?? San Antonio is clearly above the Tier III cities
Nashville, Seattle and Austin have been overhyped for decades.
Seattle has almost caught up to the hype, Austin is making strides, Nashville is still a ways away. I say in 30 years they will be towards the top of the tier but still in that tier.
I still think their are sleepers like Tampa that will be jostling for position in the Top 25, but people are talking like Austin and Nashville are already busting into that tier behind the Top 12.
They are not yet near there
None of this constitutes evidence that Austin has "surpassed" Charlotte in any meaningful, objective way.
Anecdotal observations from your Midwestern peers are just that...anecdotal. I bet they aren't talking about Philadelphia or Miami in the same way as Austin either, but that proves nothing in and of itself. Also, Charlotte gets the bulk of its non-Southern transplants from Northeast/mid-Atlantic, and I can tell you that folks in the DC/Baltimore area are well-acquainted with Charlotte and it is often mentioned as a potential city to relocate to by people in the area.
The opinions expressed here are always going to be somewhat anecdotal in nature, especially because the idea of a city "tier" is not an objective measure.
In terms of the cultural significance debate of Austin vs. Charlotte, I wouldn't say that you have to rely on my anecdotes at all. Austin is in the news every other day for one thing or another, whereas I can't remember the last time Charlotte has got the spotlight for anything. That's not a dig on Charlotte, it's just that the metro is more low key. And even though it is difficult to quantify, the amount people talk about a metro or hear about it is a big factor in what tier a city resides in.
I will agree with you that Charlotte is more well known among people in the Northeast, and a big part of that is because North Carolina is such as big destination for transplants from NY, NJ, etc. However, I think Austin has gets quite a bit more recognition nationwide.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutiny77
Austin is certainly an important tech hub; no doubt about that. I don't think that in and of itself means it has surpassed Charlotte, although the potential is certainly there. Also I think you underestimate Charlotte a bit as it has carved out a rather nice fintech niche that is receiving more attention as well as VC funding over time: https://fortune.com/2019/07/23/charl...artup-capital/ https://www.us.jll.com/en/views/snap...apshot-8-17-20
It does look like Charlotte has a budding tech scene, but it doesn't have momentum and scale of Austin. If we were just comparing the two economies in a traditional sense, I would agree that it would be harder to argue Austin that is better than Charlotte because of its tech scene. Charlotte has a ton of white collar jobs in banking and is pretty important in that regard. However, we are talking about what tier Austin is in, and the companies in Austin have quite a bit more prestige and name recognition.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutiny77
The amenities Charlotte has that Austin currently lacks are major league professional sports and a rapid transit system. If including MLS as a major league sport, then Austin will be getting both soon enough but as it stands now, those would be the most obvious examples.
I don't think pro sports are a super important amenity for the vast majority of people that aren't season ticket holders. Yeah, it's nice to go to a game every once in awhile, but I would never choose to move to one metro over another because one city had a football team.
Rapid transit is a moot point because both metros are still super car centric. Charlotte does have a more robust rail system, but I wouldn't move to either cities without a car.
The amenities Charlotte has that Austin currently lacks are major league professional sports and a rapid transit system. If including MLS as a major league sport, then Austin will be getting both soon enough but as it stands now, those would be the most obvious examples.
None of this constitutes evidence that Austin has "surpassed" Charlotte in any meaningful, objective way.
Anecdotal observations from your Midwestern peers are just that...anecdotal. I bet they aren't talking about Philadelphia or Miami in the same way as Austin either, but that proves nothing in and of itself. Also, Charlotte gets the bulk of its non-Southern transplants from Northeast/mid-Atlantic, and I can tell you that folks in the DC/Baltimore area are well-acquainted with Charlotte and it is often mentioned as a potential city to relocate to by people in the area.
Austin is certainly an important tech hub; no doubt about that. I don't think that in and of itself means it has surpassed Charlotte, although the potential is certainly there. Also I think you underestimate Charlotte a bit as it has carved out a rather nice fintech niche that is receiving more attention as well as VC funding over time: https://fortune.com/2019/07/23/charl...artup-capital/ https://www.us.jll.com/en/views/snap...apshot-8-17-20
The amenities Charlotte has that Austin currently lacks are major league professional sports and a rapid transit system. If including MLS as a major league sport, then Austin will be getting both soon enough but as it stands now, those would be the most obvious examples.
Charlotte has a NBA and NFL team.
So it wasn't lacking in profesional sports, even before the MLS team.
I Once Thought like many of you That Raleigh belongs in Tier II
But once you delve into the actual data , demographic and economic information it becomes clear, that Raleigh-Durham just doesn't fit there yet and it falls quite short of the Tier II cities.
I’d be interested in any actual data you have showing any separation between the Triangle and Nashville MSA.
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