[Cambium]

Unfortunetly this may happen.. I waited a few days to see if there was any changes but the Euro and other models continue to show this happening. The GFS stands alone in going out to Sea but looking back at history the GFS is known to do this.

At this point I'm hoping for luck but IF these models are right, it would be another historic storm.

Understand 3 things...

1. What they are showing IS NOT locked in stone.
2. We are still 7 days away
3. The players on the field all have to work together for this to happen.

The Euro continues to show it with a 939mb Low over NYC. This would be another historic event for the entire Northeast and New England.

Don't hit the panic button yet but I will keep you all informed of the latest.. Here's the last Euro that just came out with new data that got fed into it.

The key is the trough out west. If its 6 hours off, there wont be a phase... Hurricane Sandy will move up the coast and If we get a phase... then it will draw Sandy right into us.

[Cambium]

Timing would be Monday-Tuesday with the start of it possibly Sunday. We wont know timing until we get closer.

All models have it except the GFS

[Cambium]

Here was last nights update. Notice all models have it except the GFS bottom right.

the GFS did not have the October Snowstorm in the 5-7 day range last year, this is whats concerning me.

NO SNOW this time for us..It would be an Irene type event and hopefully that weak because what models are showing as of now is just insane to think about. Irene was a 973mb Low. They are showing a stronger low.

[Mike 75]

NHC has it recurving off of FL.

Tropical Storm SANDY

[Lintu]

I had read yesterday it was a 1 in 5 chance to affect the NYC area.

[yankees28]

Lets hope the hurricane center is right here, ugh.

[Mike 75]

Its interesting that the NHC has it ex-tropical by Sunday, but still with tropical storm force winds.

Here's a pretty interesting post from Geoff Fox's blog in the wake of Irene.

Was Hurricane Irene Hyped? — My Permanent Record

[kidyankee764]

I don't know much about meteorology but isn't it far too early to suggest that we're going to be affected?

[Cambium]

Noaa/HPC now says a Long Island/CT hit. Not good. They are usually conservative and never believe models.

HPC Day 7 Sea Level Pressures and Fronts

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by kidyankee764

I don't know much about meteorology but isn't it far too early to suggest that we're going to be affected?

Yes, in the sense that things can change but, No in the sense that the possibility is there. In other words, there's no possibility tomorrow, last week or the week after next..

Quick info on models. They ingest all ground and upper air data and after a million percentages and senarios they come to a conclusion. This is the conclusion they are seeing for next week.

If that Trough out west slows or speeds up, it will change the solution of the models and the storm will go OTS.

Friday I will have more confidence on what the story is. I wasnt buying it 3 days ago...Its hard to buy it now but my confidence is high we get hit..

I wouldnt worry about it just yet but just keep in on your mind its possible.