[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by meg31816

Where's the 6+ inches of snow? I dunno why I'm itching for winter so much lol...

I think any chance of snow in the Tri-State area is at least 10 days away.

Now that meteorological winter 2013/2014 has officially started…its interesting to note on what date we start to see real winter type weather. Since I live in southern Connecticut I looked at the last five years at NWS Bridgeport and the date of the first 1 inch of snowfall:

2008/2009 = December 8th:
2009/2010 = December 9th
2010/2011 = December 26th
2011/2012 = October 29th
2012/2013 = November 7

Based on the current forecast for the next 8 days or so – we might just challenge the winter of 2010/2011 in terms of waiting for the first inch of snow. Looking at NWS 7 day forecast, it looks like temps will be too warm for any snow right through next Sunday. In fact, after tonight, it looks like lows struggle to even get below freezing right into next weekend:




If this forecast holds true (highs in the 40’s and 50’s….lows in the 30’s F), this would take us to and past December 8/9th …and leave only December 2010 as the latest date for the first 1 inch of snow at NWS Bridgeport in the last 5 years.

[Cambium]

Enjoy the next few days. Starting Thursday we get active and need to stay on our toes.

3 Waves of Low Pressures.

Thursday - Light Rain
Friday night into Saturday - Rain into Ice & Snow
Monday - Possible accumulating snows

This is all about where that front setups I mentioned before. The Monday storm there's more consistency with snow "SOUTH" of us for the Mid Atlantic but some hints that we might get involved now.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

I think any chance of snow in the Tri-State area is at least 10 days away.

Now that meteorological winter 2013/2014 has officially started…its interesting to note on what date we start to see real winter type weather. Since I live in southern Connecticut I looked at the last five years at NWS Bridgeport and the date of the first 1 inch of snowfall:

2008/2009 = December 8th:
2009/2010 = December 9th
2010/2011 = December 26th
2011/2012 = October 29th
2012/2013 = November 7

Based on the current forecast for the next 8 days or so – we might just challenge the winter of 2010/2011 in terms of waiting for the first inch of snow. Looking at NWS 7 day forecast, it looks like temps will be too warm for any snow right through next Sunday. In fact, after tonight, it looks like lows struggle to even get below freezing right into next weekend:




If this forecast holds true (highs in the 40’s and 50’s….lows in the 30’s F), this would take us to and past December 8/9th …and leave only December 2010 as the latest date for the first 1 inch of snow at NWS Bridgeport in the last 5 years.

Granted the other 4 dates (especially the last 2 years) are "early", but it's a long time between the 9th and the 26th. It's just as likely (and closer to normal) that the first inch will fall somewhere between those two dates.

[Cambium]

KBOX issued an autumn review for their coverage sites. Here's Hartford, see all with link.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary= 0&highlight=off&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS

Look at the average low in November. 3.3 below normal. The above normal aren't impressive.

[GraniteStater]

An item to watch is that pesky southeast ridge. Positive heights at 500mb level spell model troubles for the end of the week. I also find the GFS a bit suspicious as I think it weakens the arctic air upstream too quickly.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by GraniteStater

An item to watch is that pesky southeast ridge. Positive heights at 500mb level spell model troubles for the end of the week. I also find the GFS a bit suspicious as I think it weakens the arctic air upstream too quickly.

The only thing the SouthEast ridge will do is keep the northern jet stream from sinking further south into the southeast. It means more moisture will be in play for us here and storm spitting out the Del marva area. Perfect for winter storms. SouthEast ridge is very beneficial for snows when setup the way its showing because storms cant exit too far south and the northern Jet Stream is south of NYC.

December 8-9, 2013 Storm Update for Connecticut:

GFS has 3-5" all snow for Northern half, Snow to rain for southern
Canadian has 2-4" of snow then changes to rain
Euro has 5-10" of snow north of Merit

Fun times and to think I said this back on November 5th.. It's nice to see the activity being shown now.

Originally Posted by Cambium

2 words... Get Ready.
Put it this way... The water is in the pot. The Knob has been turned. (Don't watch a boiling pot)

[gmdealerguy]

Originally Posted by Cambium

The only thing the SouthEast ridge will do is keep the northern jet stream from sinking further south into the southeast. It means more moisture will be in play for us here and storm spitting out the Del marva area. Perfect for winter storms. SouthEast ridge is very beneficial for snows when setup the way its showing because storms cant exit too far south and the northern Jet Stream is south of NYC.

December 8-9, 2013 Storm Update for Connecticut:

GFS has 3-5" all snow for Northern half, Snow to rain for southern
Canadian has 2-4" of snow then changes to rain
Euro has 5-10" of snow north of Merit

Fun times and to think I said this back on November 5th.. It's nice to see the activity being shown now.

How about no snow at all........

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Granted the other 4 dates (especially the last 2 years) are "early", but it's a long time between the 9th and the 26th. It's just as likely (and closer to normal) that the first inch will fall somewhere between those two dates.

Yes, it is a long time between the 9th and the 26th....so it would be rare I would guess to go past the 26th of December without even an inch of snow in the Tri-State area.

I do think we have a chance of getting past the 8/9th without seeing an inch of snow in most of the area NWS stations.

It will be interesting to see how the first month of meterological winter plays out.

Originally Posted by gmdealerguy

How about no snow at all........

My guess is a late start to the snow season in Connecticut and much of the USA:

Right now the snowcover over much of the USA is not very impressive. There is some snow cover in the eastern Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, upper New England, and in the Western Mts. Outside of these areas - no one has a deep snow pack, and that means much of the mainland is somewhat vulnerable to any kind of warm up. There will be some warming into Wednesday up into the Midwest and the Great Lakes, as well as across the Ohio Valley and, eventually, even northern New England. This will likely eat away at what little snow there is along the fringes of the snow cover. For this reason, I think we in the CT/NYC/NJ area will struggle to see much snow cover for the next few weeks:

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by GraniteStater

An item to watch is that pesky southeast ridge. Positive heights at 500mb level spell model troubles for the end of the week. I also find the GFS a bit suspicious as I think it weakens the arctic air upstream too quickly.

Agree 100%....the subtropical high has now moved into its winter home between Northwest Africa and the Bahamas. It seems rather strong again this December. The southeast ridge was a big part of the stable, sunny weather I enjoyed last December when I was in Florida most of the month. Highs everyday were in the 70's and 80's F. I'm hoping for a repeat performance this December as I hope to be down by the 20th or so.

I think you might be right in how it will effect storms this December - the subtropical high might help deflect storms toward the Great Lakes as well as send warm air toward the Middle Atlantic/Tri-State area. We should see this pattern play out this coming weekend, as the cold air is pushed toward the Great lakes, and we on the East Coast see nothing but rain:

[Tubeworm]

Here's to our November roller coaster temperatures:

Credit: WXEDGE - November 2013 Was a Cold Month
By Ralph Fato on December 1, 2013, 3:14pm