[Wilton2ParkAve]

Originally Posted by jp03

So

Bridgeport +4 for November

Hartford +5

Have to hand it to folks ,their long term forecasting is really improving. Still far from great but they nailed last month.

Edit: for December Long term looks to be 4-5 degrees above normal for both. See if that pans out

Big miss (miss isn't even the appropriate word) for the first six months of 2015.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

https://twitter.com/MPRweather/statu...96606215979008

If I'm reading that map right Alaska is going to be a lot colder than normal though.....

+7F would be a "torcher" but not 'unprecedented', winter months have had swings in the average of +/- 10 or more, especially in the Midwest more than the Northeast and more so inland than coastal.

Originally Posted by Cambium

FYI .. Thanks to Google and Excel Forums out there I was able to retrieve the work.. Amazing what stays in your computer even if you close the program without saving.



Warmest November
Islip

2nd Warmest November
NYC
Albany
Burlington
Philly

Warmest Fall 2015
Poughkeepsie, NY
Islip, NY

2nd Warmest Fall
Bridgeport
NYC
Burlington
Philly

Thanks. Is the reason for "2nd warmest" in November the mysterious 1931 as you mentioned earlier? Even without that, it turns out it is "warmest" by only 0.1 degree as the month ended 52.8 in Central Park and record was 52.7 in 2001, so it was a much closer call than I expected.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Thanks. Is the reason for "2nd warmest" in November the mysterious 1931 as you mentioned earlier? .

Yup. I'm leaving it in. Don't understand how we can ignore a whole month. NWS NY better step up and do the right thing. lol

[Cambium]

Here's what I think of the pattern still.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Now you believe long term forecasting? I'm sure you know what it goes by. Models. That's all forecasting is. Looking at models, blending them, using own opinions. So the models have gotten better.

The CFS model showing a mild December as well. Unreal.

GFS is hinting at coldest air of season mid month but its the GFS and it's 2 weeks away and it might as well just be in and out again..

This is sad.. even more sad than last year because at least November was cold with snow around.

Then I see this post... Haven't looked into it to confirm.

I believe they are getting better at up to a month. Lets see how close December turns out. Outside a month I don't even bother to look. And of COURSE they look at the models..what else would they look at????

[RunD1987]

Any word on January or February yet? If we can make it through the first week of February with nothing over 2 inches think we're in the clear. Keep our fingers crossed.

[papafox]

Originally Posted by RunD1987

Any word on January or February yet? If we can make it through the first week of February with nothing over 2 inches think we're in the clear. Keep our fingers crossed.

I don't think so pal

What you describe is exactly what happened in the winter of 2006-07, and the we got nailed on Valentines Day, and again 5 weeks later on St Patty's Day.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by papafox

I don't think so pal

What you describe is exactly what happened in the winter of 2006-07, and the we got nailed on Valentines Day, and again 5 weeks later on St Patty's Day.

An extreme case is 1997-98 when almost nothing fell until March 22!

Cambium, as for November 1931, they didnt ignore so much as change the number, but not sure where they got their info from.

[RunD1987]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

An extreme case is 1997-98 when almost nothing fell until March 22!

Cambium, as for November 1931, they didnt ignore so much as change the number, but not sure where they got their info from.

I remember 1998 oh no

[Cambium]

Missing Snowfall is another peeve of mine.. I understand it's detailed and maybe hard to keep up each time but if a couple of days is missing, then just add what you have for the rest of the month! Sucks both ways but at least there's some data showing for it.

Take Hartford for instance

1st of all, was there a strike or just laziness from 1996 to 2003? WTF. I mean they've kept track since 1905 nicely each month each day then they stopped?

But more importantly 1995-96 showing missing number for season total just because Apr-May-June is.

I mean you have the bulk of the season, so what if it may have snowed in April, at least add the rest of the season into a season total. WTF.

Same with 2000-01. Just add up what you have.

So what we, (non NWS employees) do, is just add what is available. Maybe dig deeper into the month and add the dailies up too for those missing months. So like we would have 107.1" for the 1995-96 and make our own graphic and ranking.

107 inches? What?? That would be the snowiest season for them.. Now I question that entire year. That's substantially more than 2nd snowiest at 86.4" 2010-11

So which is it? What was the snowiest winter for Hartford. 2010-11 or 1995-96?




http://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=box