[JayCT]

Originally Posted by Mike 75

Agreed. In my experience its been 20-25% as well. It helps to shop the project if you can. We also found our architect to be a wealth of knowledge and helpful in navigating the selection process, especially with coming up with a list of GCs who would likely be interested in the project.

That’s an excellent suggestion as well. Architects will know the better contractors to work with in the area and help guide you through the design and building process. This is particularly important when building a $2 million home. I’ve seen too many horrible homes built because the owner tried to save money. It sadly shows. Jay

[17Christian76]

Originally Posted by JayCT

I am not sure where you got that figure but our GC’s markup was no where near that. It was more like 25%. In fact it depended on the sub price. Sometimes he did not mark up the price. Still worth the price. Time is money and anything that gets you done faster is worth it. You won’t regret it. Jay

I have heard many accounts of very high GC markups in this market. 35% was a common figure thrown around.

[Mike 75]

Originally Posted by JayCT

That’s an excellent suggestion as well. Architects will know the better contractors to work with in the area and help guide you through the design and building process. This is particularly important when building a $2 million home. I’ve seen too many horrible homes built because the owner tried to save money. It sadly shows. Jay

Yeah, the architect should be the first person hired on the project. Looking at GCs before the architect is putting the cart before the horse. The good ones aren't cheap, but are worth every penny.

[mels]

Yesterday's NYTimes headline:

Something Has to Give in the Housing Market. Or Does It?
There appears to be no quick reprieve coming for rising prices: “It’s not a bubble, it really is about the fundamentals.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/20/u...s-surging.html

If you get paywalled, the gist is this:

“It’s not a bubble, it really is about the fundamentals,” said Jenny Schuetz, a housing researcher at the Brookings Institution. “It really is about supply and demand — not enough houses, and huge numbers of people wanting homes.”

“My pessimistic view is that the economy is perfectly capable of running with unaffordable housing,” said Daryl Fairweather, the chief economist at Redfin. This was evident over the last decade, she said, when affordability worsened even as the economy continued to grow. And that reality has enabled politicians and the public to largely neglect the issue of housing affordability.

None of this is rooted in the kind of risky borrowing that inflated the housing bubble. Rather, home buyers flush with pandemic savings and strong credit have been taking out conventional loans (if they’re taking out loans at all)…Add to all of this a few more forces stressing the housing market even without a pandemic: Baby boomers who own a lot of housing stock are sticking around in their primary homes longer than previous generations did, at a time millennials have reached peak home-buying age. That ties up existing supply. Local governments have further stymied new housing supply with zoning and building restrictions that will remain a problem even when home-building supply chain kinks resolve.

[tsek]

It doesn't make sense to deny we're in a bubble because the cause of the last one isn't a factor today. All sorts of factors can result in a bubble. This is a Fed-blown bubble. There is a 1:1 relationship between the Fed purchases of MBS and the parabolic rise in home prices.

See:

https://ibb.co/1qwP6FP

This is a time where people are paying millions of dollars for pictures of monkeys. It will end badly.

[SteveM85]

Originally Posted by tsek

It doesn't make sense to deny we're in a bubble because the cause of the last one isn't a factor today. All sorts of factors can result in a bubble. This is a Fed-blown bubble. There is a 1:1 relationship between the Fed purchases of MBS and the parabolic rise in home prices.

See:

https://ibb.co/1qwP6FP

This is a time where people are paying millions of dollars for pictures of monkeys. It will end badly.

I think were ok for the time being. Big Pharma has decided to take all control of the country right now and did so without any resistance and they have no plans on relinquishing that control. They're in charge. Migration to suburbs and forests should continue, but you're right, someone or something will come along that causes people not to be able to honor or meet their monthly mortgage responsibiltity. That's when it will end. We just don't know who or what that someone or something is. What we do know is that bubbles pop. History says so.

[CTartist]

FYI

‘No SALT, no deal.’ Some House Democrats say deduction must be in Build Back Better
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...?ocid=msedgntp

This sure we be great for Fairfield County.

[17Christian76]

Originally Posted by tsek

It doesn't make sense to deny we're in a bubble because the cause of the last one isn't a factor today. All sorts of factors can result in a bubble. This is a Fed-blown bubble. There is a 1:1 relationship between the Fed purchases of MBS and the parabolic rise in home prices.

See:

https://ibb.co/1qwP6FP

This is a time where people are paying millions of dollars for pictures of monkeys. It will end badly.

Very interesting suggestion. I hadn't realized this before.

[Stylo]

Originally Posted by CTartist

FYI

‘No SALT, no deal.’ Some House Democrats say deduction must be in Build Back Better
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...?ocid=msedgntp

This sure we be great for Fairfield County.

I’m bummed Biden hasn’t put this through separately. This would be such an easy win for his base, but typical to lump it in with a pie in the sky massive bill.

[tsek]

Originally Posted by SteveM85

I think were ok for the time being. Big Pharma has decided to take all control of the country right now and did so without any resistance and they have no plans on relinquishing that control. They're in charge. Migration to suburbs and forests should continue, but you're right, someone or something will come along that causes people not to be able to honor or meet their monthly mortgage responsibiltity. That's when it will end. We just don't know who or what that someone or something is. What we do know is that bubbles pop. History says so.

I think we're in the most obvious bubble in history and seeing it pop in real time right now. As in it is literally popping this week.

I looked at a new-construction house that was $1.3M, built with the most shoddy materials on the market (single-pane Silverline windows) and presumably by the cheapest subcontractors available. I said no thanks. Next week, the price was raised by 3%. It's still sitting.

Every bubble has breathless rationalization, just enough of which is rooted in reality to make the rest of the hyperbole seem credible. Bitcoin is limited, so grab it now at 70k before it runs to 500k. Houses will go up another 20%, there are no houses available so you better act fast or you'll risk being on the street because rental prices and availability are under huge pressure too. Buy this Omega now so you can get in line for the Rolex that's sold out for years, otherwise you'll never get it. Etc.

The bottom line is the Fed put a massive tide of money under every asset class creating many bubbles and gave rise to a speculative circus. The lights are now going off.

If you're looking at a home now is the time to hold off if you can, but keep in mind the housing market is slow to react. Patience will be rewarded.