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Old 02-27-2016, 03:42 PM
 
Location: Secure, Undisclosed
1,984 posts, read 1,699,285 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scrat335 View Post
Rescue3 in reference to post 24.

Nice spin job there. Accept the fact that the second gulf war and the destruction of the Iraqi state is what sowed the seeds of the misery we see today throughout the region.

These terrorist organizations we find ourselves dealing with today evolved from the acts going back long ago. The US and friends in fact have covertly supported and enabled them by various means to destabilize governments that dare to not willing to heel.
Okay, if you are going to use the "Second Gulf War caused all of this..." argument, you are missing the effect of the first gulf war. That was the one that rendered Saddam impotent in the eyes of everyone in the Middle East. We ran him out of Kuwait in what, 26 hours? 56 hours? I forget, but it was measured in hours. And that was after Iran kicked his butt in the 1980 - 88 Iran-Iraq war.

So call the spade a spade. Blame it on Bush 41, not Bush 43. (Arguably, he just made it worse.)

According to an OpEd I read Friday from inside the IC, Syria and Iraq have been relatively stable for about 4,000 years. How unlikely is it that both fell at the same time? The US clearly destabilized Iraq - but what destabilized Syria? And the 'Arab Spring' that toppled governments in Egypt and Libya is a huge factor. That's the same Arab Spring that the current administration applauded. So how is all of that directly attributable to the destruction of the Iraqi state?

Answer: It isn't. Bush should have never gone into Iraq in 2003 (IMHO), but if you are looking for a single scapegoat for "the seeds of the misery we see today throughout the region," you are applying eighth grade thinking to a PhD level problem.

As to governments developing terrorist organizations to use them as proxy armies or to carry out foreign policies which the stated government cannot be seen to carry out, you are correct. That happens. A lot. But the US had kinda learned its lesson - until Obama tried it with a group in Syria. THAT was just a freakin' disaster - amateur hour writ large.

So I guess both parties make mistakes... don't they?

 
Old 02-27-2016, 04:10 PM
 
9,511 posts, read 5,434,021 times
Reputation: 9092
Rescue3.

You seem to be well versed on this subject so my first reaction was off the mark. My bad.

You got me thinking and Im going to go hit the books time allowing. This whole thing is a big steaming mess.
 
Old 02-27-2016, 04:33 PM
 
4,231 posts, read 3,555,945 times
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So who's winning??

Definitely not US.
 
Old 02-27-2016, 04:43 PM
 
9,511 posts, read 5,434,021 times
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I don't think anyone is winning. This is an ongoing political struggle where there's no clear objective let alone outcome.
 
Old 02-27-2016, 04:59 PM
 
40 posts, read 42,790 times
Reputation: 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rescue3 View Post
No, with all due respect, you are wrong. (Have you ever even been to the Middle East?)

I currently do this full time for a living. So here is a free briefing:

Zarqawi formed Tawid wal Jihad back in the late 90's - yes, in Afghanistan. Then he got in bed with one of the Ansar groups (al-Sharia, I think) in far northern Iraq prior to 2003. The Bush administration almost used them as an excuse to invade Iraq (Saddam harboring terrorists) except that Saddam didn't control that part of Iraq. So they went the WMD route. (An entirely separate discussion - but I still think they screwed the pooch on that one.)

ISIS, however, is a completely different animal. Al-Baghdadi formed ISIS in 2013 around the concept of a caliphate. That is 180 degrees out from what AQ has had as its goal since OBL and Zawahiri and one other guy (his name escapes me at the moment) formed it back in the mid-1990s. If you don't know the difference between the 'near war' and the 'far war' and a caliphate, you don't belong in this debate.

When you work with and study terrorist groups, one of the things you quickly learn is that they morph and change and adapt and adopt - each other. TwJ begat AQI, which begat ISI, which begat ISIS - but they had different sponsors and goals with each rebranding.

So to say that ISIS was doing the bombings in 2008 is ridiculous. It didn't exist for another five years. It's predecessor, ISI, did exist, but had an entirely different goal (and in 2008 - entirely different leadership). (ISI, by the way, did most of the 2008 bombings, according to my database.) And they were thrown out of AQ for blowing up other Muslims.

Nowhere have I alleged that Obama created ISIS - or even allowed it to develop. Obama sees himself as a domestic policy president, not a foreign affairs president. From what I knew when I was in Washington (and what I've subsequently read out of there) he was completely unaware - or didn't care - ISIS was even forming. If I had to characterize his foreign policy, it would be 'ignorance is bliss.'

As to sources, Wiki will get you started. Here are a few you might want to try if you really want to know what was happening in Iraq from 2003 to 2010 (pardon my spelling; I'm not in my office):

Bernie Trainor - Both of his books; start with Cobra II. His second is called Endgame (I'm pretty sure).

Task Force Black (a Brit wrote it)

Black Flag of ISIS (I think Bergen wrote it - but I may be wrong)

Playing to the Edge (Mike Hayden)

My Part of the Struggle (I think it's called) by Stan McChrystal

The Sheriff of Ramadi (Dick Couch, I think, wrote that one)

If you really, really want to get into this, Google something called the Counter Terrorism Center (CTC) at the USMA at West Point. There you can download years' worth of scholarly studies about all of this in .pdf format. It is all unclassified now.

These should get you started. But a fair warning: if you actually think Zarqawi's Tawid wal Jihad is the same as al-Baghdadi's ISIS, you have a long, steep learning curve ahead of you.

Briefing concluded; no charge.

So only those living in the Middle East know what's going on? That's as dumb as someone claiming only those living in North Korea know what's going on there.

So you think an army of 200,000 rose out of thin air in 2013 calling themselves ISIS? LOL. Another dumb comment. Every reputable Middle East historian and expert agrees the forerunner to ISIS was created in 1999, joined forces with al Qaeda of Iraq (which didn't exist until Bush invaded Iraq) and conducted thousands of terrorist bombings & attacks in Iraq. They were indeed the JV team as Obama referred to until Bush destabilized Iraq and fired all of Saddam's military, who eagerly joined up with them to form the current iteration of ISIS.

These FACTS are not disputable even by conspiracy theory whackjobs such as yourself.
 
Old 02-27-2016, 07:30 PM
 
Location: Secure, Undisclosed
1,984 posts, read 1,699,285 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scrat335 View Post
Rescue3.

You seem to be well versed on this subject so my first reaction was off the mark. My bad.

You got me thinking and Im going to go hit the books time allowing. This whole thing is a big steaming mess.
No offense taken. The media has not done a good job of objectively reporting this, and unless you've been there, a lot of people are just lining up to blame it one one president (or party) or the other. It's way more complicated than that.

But you are exactly correct that it is a big mess - worse than we've ever seen it. Think about this: The Israeli/Palestinian problem is the least of our worries in the Middle East right now. Did you ever think that would be the case?

(BTW - When the Palestinians begin to feel like they are being ignored, they usually do something spectacular in an attempt to draw attention back to their plight - like another intifada or something. Just sayin...)
 
Old 02-27-2016, 07:44 PM
 
Location: Secure, Undisclosed
1,984 posts, read 1,699,285 times
Reputation: 3728
Quote:
Originally Posted by jalapenolink View Post
So only those living in the Middle East know what's going on? That's as dumb as someone claiming only those living in North Korea know what's going on there.

So you think an army of 200,000 rose out of thin air in 2013 calling themselves ISIS? LOL. Another dumb comment. Every reputable Middle East historian and expert agrees the forerunner to ISIS was created in 1999, joined forces with al Qaeda of Iraq (which didn't exist until Bush invaded Iraq) and conducted thousands of terrorist bombings & attacks in Iraq. They were indeed the JV team as Obama referred to until Bush destabilized Iraq and fired all of Saddam's military, who eagerly joined up with them to form the current iteration of ISIS.

These FACTS are not disputable even by conspiracy theory whackjobs such as yourself.
Wow. Just... Wow.

Not even going to argue with you - you're so far off the planet it would be like trying to teach a pig to sing. (I'd get all muddy and it would just **** off the pig.)

Tell you what. Go spend thirty years working in the field, get your graduate and post graduate work done, gain some real insight into terrorism and international relations and then come back and let's talk. Until then, please continue to steep yourself in whatever political tea you think is your flavor. Just please stay out of the foreign affairs business because you are way, way out of your league.

(By the way - been to North Korea, too. )
 
Old 02-27-2016, 09:29 PM
 
7,736 posts, read 4,984,285 times
Reputation: 7963

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mtQZwXOb3_Q
 
Old 02-27-2016, 09:48 PM
 
Location: Montgomery County, PA
16,569 posts, read 15,258,911 times
Reputation: 14590
Frankly, Russia should have wrapped it up by now. They are the heirs of Stalingrad. What is little Aleppo in comparison? A bunch of ragtag rebels, landlocked and with no reliable supply lines. Should have been over by now.
 
Old 02-27-2016, 10:17 PM
 
Location: Corona the I.E.
10,137 posts, read 17,472,767 times
Reputation: 9140
Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyRider View Post
Frankly, Russia should have wrapped it up by now. They are the heirs of Stalingrad. What is little Aleppo in comparison? A bunch of ragtag rebels, landlocked and with no reliable supply lines. Should have been over by now.
Putin doesn't want it to end it deflects from their bankrupt economy which is a 1 trick pony= Crude Oil

Besides his comrades are cheering for him as he flexes his nationalistic muscle.
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