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Happy rider. Taking an urban area by force is no easy task for any army. If you look at the Soviet and German losses in Stalingrad you will see.
What you need is infantry and lots of it. Airpower and artillery can in fact make the situation worse by creating lots of places for defenders to hide and ambush your troops. Syria does not have an endless horde to sacrifice in great numbers.
Frankly, Russia should have wrapped it up by now. They are the heirs of Stalingrad. What is little Aleppo in comparison? A bunch of ragtag rebels, landlocked and with no reliable supply lines. Should have been over by now.
Russia doesn't have ground presence and Syria barely has a standing army.
It's not an easy task.
But hopefully they'll wrap this up eventually.
Cutting their supply lines is more important at the moment.
The group originated as Jama'at al-Tawhid wal-Jihad in 1999, which pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda and participated in the Iraqi insurgency following the March 2003 invasion of Iraq by Western forces. Joining other Sunni insurgent groups to form the Mujahideen Shura Council, it proclaimed the formation of the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) in October 2006.
As with other commanders, he brings recruits from his home country. It was widely reported in 2015 that he and others had been trained by the US before Syria. (Anyone who paid attention to the CIA-backed revolts in the former Russian republics already knew this.)
Recent reports by the Russians indicate they are still leading ISIS in Syria. ISIS also draws recruits from Libya, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, and other countries, some whose governments provide support for ISIS together with the United State. There was also a recent news article in the German papers about the makeup of the rebel militias in Syrian being 95% foreign fighters (contrary to US claims that the war is a civil war). Any claims that the ISIS in Syria is an outgrowth of the Iraqi rebellion is thus contradicted.
The IS in Iraq is mainly an insurgency that's had two previous incarnations since the US invasion in 2003. The insurgency is led by Sunni insurgents, who were freed from the prisons in 2011-2012, and by former members of Saddam Hussein's military and security organizations. There are also some 50 Sunni tribes that also rose up in support of the uprising.
If you want to know more about IS in Iraq and how it started, the massive prison breaks in 2011-2012 were called "Breaking the Walls" and attributed to 'Al Qaeda', although it's quite unlikely a prison escape of 500 or more insurgents could be done by a few pararmilitaries imo...
No offense taken. The media has not done a good job of objectively reporting this, and unless you've been there, a lot of people are just lining up to blame it one one president (or party) or the other. It's way more complicated than that.
But you are exactly correct that it is a big mess - worse than we've ever seen it. Think about this: The Israeli/Palestinian problem is the least of our worries in the Middle East right now. Did you ever think that would be the case?
(BTW - When the Palestinians begin to feel like they are being ignored, they usually do something spectacular in an attempt to draw attention back to their plight - like another intifada or something. Just sayin...)
There are a few well written books about the Middle East situation. They give context to the media reporting. Without the context, the media reports are confusing.
The invasion of Iraq (in pursuit of the elusive WMD) triggered this situation. A large percentage of Da'esh members are westerners.
If president Obama managed to balance the budget with a flat 10% tax on every one and had free schooling for 16 years and free healthcare for everyone and gave everyone free cake, pie and ice cream, some people would still complain.
There are a few well written books about the Middle East situation. They give context to the media reporting. Without the context, the media reports are confusing.
The invasion of Iraq (in pursuit of the elusive WMD) triggered this situation. A large percentage of Da'esh members are westerners.
Yes, my office is full of them. Two of them are next to me on my end table - Hayden's and Preiss's.
(Let me correct an earlier post - Stan McChrystal's book is entitled, "My Share of the Task.")
While it is convenient (and feels good) to bust Bush 43's chops and lay this all at his feet, we really can't. Bush did destabilize Iraq, thus creating a destination for every nobody who wanted to punch America in the nose but couldn't make it to New York. Every psychotic killer who could hold an AK-47 became welcome cannon fodder for the various terrorist groups (AQI/ISI weren't the only ones) in Iraq after the US dethroned Saddam but didn't install a local government quickly. But for all those sins, Bush had nothing to do with Syria - which is really where ISIS got its first real territorial victories. It also ignores the impact of the 'Arab Spring' on Egypt and Libya, both of which now have a substantial ISIS presence.
Not sure what you mean by ISIS 'members.' With respect to what we call "foreign fighters," (particularly westerners) the numbers aren't quite as big as some think. Western countries are tracking their citizens who are going over there on behalf of ISIS. The last numbers I saw - a month or so ago - were all in the low to mid-hundreds (one or two Europeans countries are in the very low four digits). The total number of ISIS combatants in the Iraq/Syrian region are still floating around or below 50,000 - again, the last numbers I've seen. (30,000 is the most commonly reported number, but some of us think that might be a tad low.)
There is a backstory to the WMD issue. John Nixon is writing it in his forthcoming book called "Debriefing the President." The teaser is that the deterrence portion of Saddam's foreign policy backfired in spectacular fashion. I won't steal the author's thunder - I know the story - and it is a fascinating one.
As with other commanders, he brings recruits from his home country. It was widely reported in 2015 that he and others had been trained by the US before Syria. (Anyone who paid attention to the CIA-backed revolts in the former Russian republics already knew this.)
Recent reports by the Russians indicate they are still leading ISIS in Syria. ISIS also draws recruits from Libya, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, and other countries, some whose governments provide support for ISIS together with the United State. There was also a recent news article in the German papers about the makeup of the rebel militias in Syrian being 95% foreign fighters (contrary to US claims that the war is a civil war). Any claims that the ISIS in Syria is an outgrowth of the Iraqi rebellion is thus contradicted.
The IS in Iraq is mainly an insurgency that's had two previous incarnations since the US invasion in 2003. The insurgency is led by Sunni insurgents, who were freed from the prisons in 2011-2012, and by former members of Saddam Hussein's military and security organizations. There are also some 50 Sunni tribes that also rose up in support of the uprising.
If you want to know more about IS in Iraq and how it started, the massive prison breaks in 2011-2012 were called "Breaking the Walls" and attributed to 'Al Qaeda', although it's quite unlikely a prison escape of 500 or more insurgents could be done by a few pararmilitaries imo...
In my opinion we've got no idea who's winning or losing what at this point, too soon to tell and there's still too much ground to cover.
The claim of winning will be believable when there's no more bombings or mass killings in the name of a some islamic prophet.
Yes, my office is full of them. Two of them are next to me on my end table - Hayden's and Preiss's.
(Let me correct an earlier post - Stan McChrystal's book is entitled, "My Share of the Task.")
While it is convenient (and feels good) to bust Bush 43's chops and lay this all at his feet, we really can't. Bush did destabilize Iraq, thus creating a destination for every nobody who wanted to punch America in the nose but couldn't make it to New York. Every psychotic killer who could hold an AK-47 became welcome cannon fodder for the various terrorist groups (AQI/ISI weren't the only ones) in Iraq after the US dethroned Saddam but didn't install a local government quickly. But for all those sins, Bush had nothing to do with Syria - which is really where ISIS got its first real territorial victories. It also ignores the impact of the 'Arab Spring' on Egypt and Libya, both of which now have a substantial ISIS presence.
Not sure what you mean by ISIS 'members.' With respect to what we call "foreign fighters," (particularly westerners) the numbers aren't quite as big as some think. Western countries are tracking their citizens who are going over there on behalf of ISIS. The last numbers I saw - a month or so ago - were all in the low to mid-hundreds (one or two Europeans countries are in the very low four digits). The total number of ISIS combatants in the Iraq/Syrian region are still floating around or below 50,000 - again, the last numbers I've seen. (30,000 is the most commonly reported number, but some of us think that might be a tad low.)
There is a backstory to the WMD issue. John Nixon is writing it in his forthcoming book called "Debriefing the President." The teaser is that the deterrence portion of Saddam's foreign policy backfired in spectacular fashion. I won't steal the author's thunder - I know the story - and it is a fascinating one.
Thank you for more book recommendations! I'll pick them up this week.
I was completely confused with what is going on in the Middle East, and could not make sense out of media reports, so I started reading about it over the winter break. The media reports make a lot more sense now, but they are also more of a concern. Bush de-stablization of Iraq did not directly cause mass terrorism in Syria, but it did lead to Iraq rebels traveling to Syria to regroup. After regrouping, we have the situation in Syria today. Da'esh terrorists are armed with munitions made in the USA.
I am astounded at how naive the US government was in their thinking that they could invade the Middle East to set up what they believed was a democratic government, and that thousands of years of indoctrinated culture, conflicting religious beliefs, and tradition would morph into a happy democratic community in a matter of a couple of years. In retrospect, it was one of the stupidest things that the US has ever done - moreso because the initial aggression was justified with a lie and fed to the international community.
Da'esh members from Belgium are specifically mentioned in James Harkin's book, with very interesting timing as the book was published shortly before the Belgian Da'esh terrorists killed so many in Paris.
You're welcome. If you want specific book reccos for specific hotspots, PM me and I'll answer from my office.
I could not believe Bush wanted to install a democracy in Iraq either. But he's a democracy kinda' guy, believes everyone should be allowed to have one, and so that was his marching order. This is goning to be one of the best examples of 'hindsight is 20/20' in modern history.
Paris was the fourth try for that cell. I've even heard that if he didn't succeed this time, his butt was on the line. This time he provided noticeable, on the ground leadership. This time it worked.
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