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I posted earlier somewhere that the Chinese are saying that compare to deadly infections like SARS- the difference is- SARS infected people are arriving clearly very sick, with serious symptoms from the start.
2019-nCov- may have mild symptoms or no symptoms at all- at the beginning- the virus multiplying in organs “quietly”.
The immune system is “aware” of that and mounts a strong defensive response in the process not only working on killing the virus but attacking its own organs where the virus is- most likely lungs, kidneys, liver as well as heart
The Chinese observed that in critical cases one feels decent, than all of a sudden the blood oxygenation falls below 94- and an acute respiratory failure happens, organ failure- liver, kidney, heart inflammation, etc- which is very difficult if not impossible to control/ treat- and a “healthy” person could be dead within 24 hours...
Another difficulty: first test may be negative- I posted about some cases where doctors had 2-3-4 and even 5 tests negative, but there were some symptoms and an evidence of a close contact with infected.
They discovered that the rapid testing nasopharyngeal throat swab only 30-50% effectively showing infection. (which is shocking really)
The only 100% sure way to diagnose the infection- is to go for the bronchalveolar lavage!
The only empirical observation which may indicate a critical outcome- so called “a viral load”
The longer you were exposed to a virus- the more likely your outcome could be serious or even deadly
How one would know how long one was exposed?
I think there is more than one way to die, but it looks like the adaptive immune system being compromised is one way since lymphopenia is a risk factor, a 5 I think. This leaves the innate immune system which tries to compensate .....
The MuLBSTA score system contains six indexes, which are multilobular infiltration, lymphopenia, bacterial co-infection, smoking history, hypertension, and age. Further investigation is needed to explore the applicability of the MuLBSTA score in predicting the risk of mortality in 2019-nCoV infection.
...
Some studies suggest that a substantial decrease in the total number of lymphocytes indicates that coronavirus consumes many immune cells and inhibits the body's cellular immune function. Damage to T lymphocytes might be an important factor leading to exacerbations of patients.25
The low absolute value of lymphocytes could be used as a reference index in the diagnosis of new coronavirus infections in the clinic.
...
When populations with low immune function, such as older people, diabetics, people with HIV infection, people with long-term use of immunosuppressive agents, and pregnant women, are infected with 2019-nCoV, prompt administration of antibiotics to prevent infection and strengthening of immune support treatment might reduce complications and mortality.
In terms of laboratory tests, the absolute value of lymphocytes in most patients was reduced. This result suggests that 2019-nCoV might mainly act on lymphocytes, especially T lymphocytes, as does SARS-CoV. Virus particles spread through the respiratory mucosa and infect other cells, induce a cytokine storm in the body, generate a series of immune responses, and cause changes in peripheral white blood cells and immune cells such as lymphocytes.
Why are we here so concerned and focused on Chinese censorship”?
Imagine that the actual number of infected is 100-1000 times more?
What does it change? The people would start buying out all the food and water supplies, running through the borders of neighboring countries?
Hijacking the planes to fly out?
Wouldn’t you all who are appalled by their censorship like it?
Again, the Chinese do not hide the fact that they are censoring- it is only surprise to you who don’t read the official reports.
The Chinese are saying it is a lot of incorrect information, panic spreading and the information that does harm- like an advice to microwave the masks or use some weird remedies.
They even addressing the issue of the Western vs Traditional Chinese Medicine and inform the citizens on what works and what is useless or helpful
I think all our speculations here and in mass media is the well working notion by media- engage and entertain by creating distress.
It seems working judging by some of the posts here.
Who needs the truth?
BTW, one of the Chinese recommendations to help stay healthy during epidemic : air their homes for 30 min 2-3/times a day, eat well, exercise, get enough sleep, yoga, meditation, do pleasant to you activities and avoid excessive panicky information- do not go on websites - it is bad for one’s health.
Why are we here so concerned and focused on Chinese censorship”?
Imagine that the actual number of infected is 100-1000 times more?
What does it change? The people would start buying out all the food and water supplies, running through the borders of neighboring countries?
Hijacking the planes to fly out?
Wouldn’t you all who are appalled by their censorship like it?
Again, the Chinese do not hide the fact that they are censoring- it is only surprise to you who don’t read the official reports.
The Chinese are saying it is a lot of incorrect information, panic spreading and the information that does harm- like an advice to microwave the masks or use some weird remedies.
They even addressing the issue of the Western vs Traditional Chinese Medicine and inform the citizens on what works and what is useless or helpful
I think all our speculations here and in mass media is the well working notion by media- “engage and entertain by creating distress”- seem working judging by some of the posts here.
Who needs the truth?
BTW, one of the Chinese recommendations to help stay healthy during epidemic : eat well, exercise, get enough sleep, yoga, meditation, do pleasant to you activities and avoid excessive panicky information- do not go on websites
This attitude of “who needs the truth” is the very thing that allowed this outbreak to take hold in the first place. Bureaucrats tried to cover up and hide the initial data that alarmed doctors in December.
I think there is more than one way to die, but it looks like the adaptive immune system being compromised is one way since lymphopenia is a risk factor, a 5 I think. This leaves the innate immune system which tries to compensate .....
The MuLBSTA score system contains six indexes, which are multilobular infiltration, lymphopenia, bacterial co-infection, smoking history, hypertension, and age. Further investigation is needed to explore the applicability of the MuLBSTA score in predicting the risk of mortality in 2019-nCoV infection.
...
Some studies suggest that a substantial decrease in the total number of lymphocytes indicates that coronavirus consumes many immune cells and inhibits the body's cellular immune function. Damage to T lymphocytes might be an important factor leading to exacerbations of patients.25
The low absolute value of lymphocytes could be used as a reference index in the diagnosis of new coronavirus infections in the clinic.
...
When populations with low immune function, such as older people, diabetics, people with HIV infection, people with long-term use of immunosuppressive agents, and pregnant women, are infected with 2019-nCoV, prompt administration of antibiotics to prevent infection and strengthening of immune support treatment might reduce complications and mortality.
In terms of laboratory tests, the absolute value of lymphocytes in most patients was reduced. This result suggests that 2019-nCoV might mainly act on lymphocytes, especially T lymphocytes, as does SARS-CoV. Virus particles spread through the respiratory mucosa and infect other cells, induce a cytokine storm in the body, generate a series of immune responses, and cause changes in peripheral white blood cells and immune cells such as lymphocytes.
Wouldn’t let me rep you, you are right- the lymphopenia is one of the first symptoms they watch closely- did not want to be too “medical” for people
This attitude of “who needs the truth” is the very thing that allowed this outbreak to take hold in the first place. Bureaucrats tried to cover up and hide the initial data that alarmed doctors in December.
Oh, please! “The Chinese blame” game!
The Chinese have one of the most efficient direct reporting system. It takes not more than 2-4 hours from the rural village doctor to report suspected case to their CDC directly so they can start analyzing and making decisions - before SARS it took weeks/could be a month+ - a huge country!
I wonder how long it is in the US?
Sometimes it does not work during a human error, complacency.., including a doctor.
I already posted, the Chinese virologists from Beijing, it’s National Center for Disease Control and Prevention, their Military Medical Academy of Sciences already were aware and investigating the cluster of outbreaks of pneumonia in December
How do you think a designated as a hero doctor who died- Li Wenliang who is an ophthalmologist!
knew about these clusters? He most likely overheard some discussions with them or saw some reports? Those people from a far would stand out in a hospital...where everyone knows each other.
He did not treat a virus infected patients, because- he is an ophthalmologist?
Of course, our US bureaucracy is so much better and so much more efficient( not) than the Chinese
We shall see- not impressed so far - has anyone seen any reports on how all our coronavirus patients are doing, their age? Gender?how many close contacts they had? Which public transportation- trains, flights (numbers) they were taking?, treatment types? Prognosis? Costs of their treatments?( free in China for those with the virus)
The Chinese report these facts freely, sometimes even with their names.- the ones who lie and try escaping from the hospitals or those who carelessly disobeyed request not to go to family gatherings and infected 3 large families! Or went to class reunions dinners and coffee-shops knowing that they were in a contact with the infected.
We can argue all day about rounding errors in the first decimal place, but IMO the recent numbers show evidence of goal-seeking/manipulation.
Rounding errors? It appeared you either forgot basic arithmetic or purposely rounded incorrectly to produce a misleading post, there is nothing to argue about with regards to you saying changes in fatality rates were all 2.1% when it clearly wasn't by your own numbers. Seriously who claims 0.0197 and 0.0217 are both 2.1% to prove the fatality rate hasn't changed? Are they really interested in facts or just chasing a conclusion?
It's amazing irony that you were posting about China manipulating numbers, then you did the exact same thing to try to make point.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimAZ
Bureaucrats tried to cover up and hide the initial data that alarmed doctors in December.
What about a poster who divides two numbers, sees the result, then types in something different so that the data aligns with their world views?
#395 Nice details though to support your argument. Thank you for your contribution.
No need to get nasty and sacarstic over a known criminal and rapist, whose highest education attained was primary 6.
I may not agree with your arguments with proven clinicians / MDs on CD here, I gave you credit for digging out those links which are worth going over.
Why are we here so concerned and focused on Chinese censorship”?
Imagine that the actual number of infected is 100-1000 times more?
What does it change? The people would start buying out all the food and water supplies, running through the borders of neighboring countries?
Hijacking the planes to fly out?
Wouldn’t you all who are appalled by their censorship like it?
Again, the Chinese do not hide the fact that they are censoring- it is only surprise to you who don’t read the official reports.
The Chinese are saying it is a lot of incorrect information, panic spreading and the information that does harm- like an advice to microwave the masks or use some weird remedies.
They even addressing the issue of the Western vs Traditional Chinese Medicine and inform the citizens on what works and what is useless or helpful
I think all our speculations here and in mass media is the well working notion by media- engage and entertain by creating distress.
It seems working judging by some of the posts here.
Who needs the truth?
BTW, one of the Chinese recommendations to help stay healthy during epidemic : air their homes for 30 min 2-3/times a day, eat well, exercise, get enough sleep, yoga, meditation, do pleasant to you activities and avoid excessive panicky information- do not go on websites - it is bad for one’s health.
Your argument is basically logical fallacies.
If I lie and prove someone else is a liar I am still a liar.
If I tell the truth once I can lie again.
....
Its matters because the level of preparation needs accurate information. Seems to me most governments ignored the WHO and the complaint from China, so it looks I am not the only one skeptical.
In my opinion censorship makes it worse. The solution to bad free speech is good free speech. I know my own media lies to me all the time. So all it does is make me have to double check every thing they say. I was standing inside Russia when they were having "food shortages from sanctions". It was complete propaganda BS.
No need to get nasty and sacarstic over a known criminal and rapist, whose highest education attained was primary 6.
You gave me a simple, one line retort emphasizing the source( not even of the data). The return on your investment will be zero.
I don't care. Shoot the messenger logic. If jackass has a camera mounted on its back, I have no problem looking at the footage independently. It does not mean I ask for its opinion.
Quote:
I may not agree with your arguments with proven clinicians / MDs on CD here, I gave you credit for digging out those links which are worth going over.
I don't care about that either. I lost a lot of "friends" because I do not engage in tribalism. I may be against you or with you on any argument.
The one who posted the video itself made the disclaimer to take in the information as is. I did not elevate that status by claiming the greatest authority on the matter has spoken. I don't want to talk about the so called source unless it was his data. He pointed a finger at their data which I can see. Had he come up with super secret source then I can discount the messenger.
If you can to stick to the data, I can grow to expect high quality from a handle and grow to like their content. However I will play it straight.
You gave me a simple, one line retort emphasizing the source( not even of the data). The return on your investment will be zero.
I don't care. Shoot the messenger logic. If jackass has a camera mounted on its back, I have no problem looking at the footage independently. It does not mean I ask for its opinion.
I don't care about that either. I lost a lot of "friends" because I do not engage in tribalism. I may be against you or with you on any argument.
The one who posted the video itself made the disclaimer to take in the information as is. I did not elevate that status by claiming the greatest authority on the matter has spoken. I don't want to talk about the so called source unless it was his data. He pointed a finger at their data which I can see. Had he come up with super secret source then I can discount the messenger.
If you can to stick to the data, I can grow to expect high quality from a handle and grow to like their content. However I will play it straight.
Ok! Fair enough.
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