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The effect may in substantial part result from acquiring language through hearing (TV) rather than seeing (books). Writing can then come to focus on recreating the sound of a word rather than recreating the actual word itself.
An article in the most recent The Economist Magazine: Breaking the Baby Strike:
"Turkey is no longer delivering enough babies to sustain its population in the long-term. Turkey's president rails against abortion and tells women to bear at least 3 children, and the gov't is introducing "birth aid" payments for each baby born to a citizen and longer parental leave for civil servants."
"In Singapore, couples receive $4,450 for having one child, $4,450 for a 2nd child, and $5,000+ for a 3rd child, and families with babies go to the front of the queue for government housing. Singapore watches its fertility the way other countries track their balance of payments."
"in Russia, couples are encouraged to get it on for the sake of the motherland on an official "fertility day", a patriotic woman who gives birth exactly 9 months later might be entered into a raffle to win a car."
"Baby booming is becoming fervent, even desperate."
And for all those countries trying to increase their fertility rate, the real winners is subsidized child care, evidenced by both Sweden and France!
And will the U.S. ever be ready for that? Free child care, subsidized by taxpayers.
A couple years ago I read a book called "what to expect when we're not expecting" and the most interesting statistic to me was - that since the middle ages - the more educated women get, the fewer children they have. That trend transcends capitalism, modernism, everything. If you educate a girl, she'll have fewer kids.
So we have a trend worldwide of more education for both girls and boys, as a result they're having fewer children. The only countries with high fertility rates are in places like the mideast and Africa where they hold their women back.
The most developed countries are actually in a state of shrinkage. My bet is that as the economy becomes more technologically advanced, this will continue and we'll have a population plateau around 11-12 billion then start a slow, 150 year decline back to around 5-6 billion.
My bet is that as the economy becomes more technologically advanced, this will continue and we'll have a population plateau around 11-12 billion then start a slow, 150 year decline back to around 5-6 billion.
That might make sense if advanced robotics stalled at the current level. But if it keeps progressing, we'll see a decline in population well before it gets to 10B, and will drop to less than 1B. Probably less than 100M.
That might make sense if advanced robotics stalled at the current level. But if it keeps progressing, we'll see a decline in population well before it gets to 10B, and will drop to less than 1B. Probably less than 100M.
What, are you predicting Terminators? Even the countries with very low fertility are declining by a very low percentage every year. To fall that much the decline would have to be more than just attrition.
The world had 1.5 billion more or less for most of recorded history. So I don't see it going below that.
I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around this one!
Recently, I read China wants to allow parents to have 2 children, but 69% of those polled claimed they weren't interested in having another child, and the younger people simply don't want any children, period!
I see falling fertility rates all over the world, even Mexico falling to 2.0, and a healthy fertility rate is 2.1, and I recently read that Iran is even trying hard to reverse a fertility rate decline there.
I know excess population results in worker exploitation, more destruction to the environment, but who's to say, even with fewer people in the world, the environmental destruction will not continue.
Yes, there are parts of Africa where the fertility rate is still up there around 6.0/7.0, but how many of those being born there will even attend their 1st birthday party or their 12th birthday party!
What kind of scenario's do you see being played out, in the world, economically, if these fertility rates continue to fall? Will China, Japan (1.2 rate) and South Korea (1.3 rate) provide some of the answers?
The world will be taken by Indian soon.
Genes favor numbers more than quality since no genes can foresaw which quality can survive unforeseen future environment.
The more genes have the higher genes survival rate.
Rember we never die. From the first life form on earth until we exist, our genes never die.
We live, if our genes reproduce more genes.
I'm predicting that automation will make most human labor obsolete, consumer capitalism will be dead, and the oligarchs will have a huge incentive to reduce the human population.
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