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More retailers report strong Q3 results this week:
Wal-Mart's comp store sales were +1.5% to LY. 5th straight quarter of sales increases. Customer traffic UP. EComm sales +10% to LY. Earnings topped analyst estimates
TXJ (parent company of TX Maxx, Marshalls, and Home Goods) reported comp sales +5% to LY. Earnings beat analyst estimates.
Home Depot's comp store sales were +5.1% to LY, with US stores +7.3%. Earnings +13% to Q3 LY which best analyst expectations.
I'm sure J.Thomas will spin these results in his usual way to "prove" we're in a retail recession, but it just isn't true. In any industry, there are winners and losers. Retail is competitive and if companies rest on their laurels and don't innovate (ah-hem, Macy's!!!), they get beat. Macy's didn't post a sales decline because customers are out of money; Macy's is down because their customer is spending money at the retailers posting sales gains (Macy's, Kohl's and TXJ). And they have a legit problem in NYC with less international tourism due to the strong dollar, but most of their issues are competitive, not consumer.
Retail pays me, so, I want retail to do gangbusters!
That being said, I see a decline on my end of the business that has a lot of people worried right now. Christmas should help boost that, but, what about Q1?
On a personal note, I have decreased consumption big time, and others I talk to are in the same boat. How much stuff can one have? The people on the lower end of the totem pole aren't making any more.
Thank you so much man!!
That's what i'm talking about
There is no incentive to buy or hire.
Consumers are done for!!
And everybody's talking about this.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TurtleCreek80
More retailers report strong Q3 results this week:
Wal-Mart's comp store sales were +1.5% to LY. 5th straight quarter of sales increases. Customer traffic UP. EComm sales +10% to LY. Earnings topped analyst estimates
TXJ (parent company of TX Maxx, Marshalls, and Home Goods) reported comp sales +5% to LY. Earnings beat analyst estimates.
Home Depot's comp store sales were +5.1% to LY, with US stores +7.3%. Earnings +13% to Q3 LY which best analyst expectations.
I'm sure J.Thomas will spin these results in his usual way to "prove" we're in a retail recession, but it just isn't true. In any industry, there are winners and losers. Retail is competitive and if companies rest on their laurels and don't innovate (ah-hem, Macy's!!!), they get beat. Macy's didn't post a sales decline because customers are out of money; Macy's is down because their customer is spending money at the retailers posting sales gains (Macy's, Kohl's and TXJ). And they have a legit problem in NYC with less international tourism due to the strong dollar, but most of their issues are competitive, not consumer.
These are hopeless figures.
Sales are only up because everything is more expensive compared to last year
I'd be more interested in unit sales and volume, remember industrial output is hitting bottom.
And i LOVE Walmart!!!
Also they're topping estimates all thanks to financial engineering.
Sales are only up because everything is more expensive compared to last year
I'd be more interested in unit sales and volume, remember industrial output is hitting bottom.
NONE of what you say is true.
Let's look at Home Depot's Q3 report, which is posted on ir.homedepot.com
*Average ticket $58.03, +.8% to LY. I doubt paying 48 cents more is hurting their average customer. And it's certainly not the picture you're painting of huge increases
*Number of transactions: 371k, +4.4% to LY
Home Depot's sales increase is HEALTHY, driven by flat-ish prices and more customers shopping this year than last year.
TJX's call today mentioned flat AUR's and increased traffic, as well. (transcript will be available online if you don't believe me)
Wal-Mart is pushing Asian suppliers hard for discounts due to the RNB devaluation in August. They are passing cost savings on to customers with lower prices AND onto employees with higher wages. Win-win!!
Last week's winner was JCP with +6% comp sales. Their call (transcript at ir.jcpenney.com) mentioned transaction counts and units per transaction being UP, while AUR was down slightly (while delivering higher gross margins, to boot!)....so, more customers buying more items at lower prices than LY. Completely flies in the face of the lies you're trying to spin on this thread and others.
As i said before i'm very suspicious about these figures.
If they are performing rock solid why hedge funds dumped all these stocks
WMT is down 30% YTD
WMT is down for 2 specific reasons:
1. They have significant international exposure with stores around the globe. Because WM China is underperforming doesn't mean the US is in a recession. It does however impact the value of an INTERNATIONAL company's stock price. Doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that:
2. Wal-Mart's stock took a nosedive earlier this year when they cut future earning forecasts to fund raising pay of all store associates to a minimum of $10/hour. They are still making a ton of money, just not as much as they would have with more min wage associates. Hedge funds only care about maximizing their wealth so of course they're dumping shares. Thought you of all posters would applaud raising wages at the expense of maximizing earnings since all you talk about is how no one has any money and companies are just greedy liars.
Listen, retail is a tough industry for Wall Street to understand. It's a low EBITDA, high SG&A industry. It's highly tied to the fickle consumer (who loves Urban Outfitters one year and H&M the next). It's a barometer oh consumer confidence - though only one barometer as the consumer spends discretionary on about a dozen different categories. When Wall Street is greedy, shares fly (merited or not). When Wall Street is fearful, shares plummet (merited or not).
1. They have significant international exposure with stores around the globe. Because WM China is underperforming doesn't mean the US is in a recession. It does however impact the value of an INTERNATIONAL company's stock price. Doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that:
2. Wal-Mart's stock took a nosedive earlier this year when they cut future earning forecasts to fund raising pay of all store associates to a minimum of $10/hour. They are still making a ton of money, just not as much as they would have with more min wage associates. Hedge funds only care about maximizing their wealth so of course they're dumping shares. Thought you of all posters would applaud raising wages at the expense of maximizing earnings since all you talk about is how no one has any money and companies are just greedy liars.
Listen, retail is a tough industry for Wall Street to understand. It's a low EBITDA, high SG&A industry. It's highly tied to the fickle consumer (who loves Urban Outfitters one year and H&M the next). It's a barometer oh consumer confidence - though only one barometer as the consumer spends discretionary on about a dozen different categories. When Wall Street is greedy, shares fly (merited or not). When Wall Street is fearful, shares plummet (merited or not).
TurtleCreek80 in which sector are you working now??
I see you have good amount of knowledge on economics and finance.
TurtleCreek80 in which sector are you working now??
I see you have good amount of knowledge on economics and finance.
Your contributions are always appreciated
I gotta be vague - worked in corporate retail for two of the largest US retailers for 15 years, still in the industry but not on the retail side. But knowing everyone's business is a big part of my job
Lot of anecdotal experience being passed off as being everyone's reality. Several stories posted here that do not apply to me. Everyone in my circles are continuing to spend. However, that doesn't mean everyone is.
I know it sounds counter intuitive (at least it must to OUR corp execs) but I think the best thing for these chains to do is to re-invest in their payroll. The only way they're going to stay at all competitive with online is to offer better, faster, and more personal service. Unfortunately they seem to have spent too long going in the other direction with cutting budgets and cutting staff as if they think they can compete on price alone.
Exactly. Why pay more and waste time in line to buy things cheaper and immediately on-line? From a biz POV, Target needs to supplement it's stores with add ons like same day home delivery and personal shoppers.
And while I'm not trying to make this political, the common stereotype is that Rs shop Walmart and Ds shop Target. Not surprised to see it happen to Target first because many Ds who are younger are shopping on line and news online so MSNBC is also suffering.
Nope. Designed by Western (American/European/Canadian/Australian) Engineers, and spec'd by Western draftsmen. The Chinese can reverse-engineer at best. And they do have the cash to buy technology if/when they want.
No, they don't.
Many American Universities, especially second tier Universities, are more Chinese than American, if we to look just at science and engineering departments where Chinese faculty and Chinese graduate students dominate all other ethnic groups including "native borns". Academia simply cannot resist temptation to exploit people willing to labor 24/7/365. Chinese are really good at that even compare to the rest sci&eng aspirants who are expected to be single minded zombies laboring on their research with abandon. People have to realize that much of that alleged technological advantage they allude to is touched by Chinese in one way or another. Much of American engineering education is shaped by Chinese.
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