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Sounds good, but all I have seen is when anything happens to put more money into a business's pocket, most of it never trickles down unless absolutely necessary. With the increase in population and efficiency of being able to produce more with less, that no longer works.
Exactly! It seems there needs to be more of a cultural change to really have an effect.
As a shareholder in companies- hence being an owner of company of course de-regulations, lower tax rates, accommodating fed policies all sound good but the question to ask is are the changes good for our country as a whole in the long run?
Removing regulations in the 1990's that were created in the 1930's after the great depression brought this country to it's knees again in just over 10 years! Why were these regulations removed? To juice the economy & stock market. What has happened since "the great recession", Fed policies have been juicing the stock market ala the economy. I'm not disagreeing with fed policy for using this strategy to pull the economy out of an all out depression but like Greenspan keeping rates too low for too long..I think this Fed has done the same. Rates could have been slowly raised a few years ago and yes the stock market is going to throw a temper tantrum but companies will learn how to operate within a higher borrowing cost situation. Instead we continue to create these false bubbles of boom to bust markets rather then letting us slowly earn (crawl) our way back up.
Certainly there is a huge mess and I don't know if it's any bigger than at other times in history or not because it seems every generation has faced mountainous issues. No easy answers but easy to see the existing problems.
Interesting, as it seems the overall trend mentioned in this thread is that populations are growing, technologies efficiencies are stealing the workforce and resources are depleting. These are some very scary trends along with global warming, nuclear ambitious countries and of course the squeezing of corporate greed for the top percentage.
I guess most individuals are struggling to control just there small little world in which they live in to not only survive but have a life as well. I was talking with a business associate involved in technology & they were saying in 20 years that 50% of the current workforce will no longer be needed due to advances.
I think the current unemployment figures are so far from the actual numbers of unemployed & I do not think the majority of those unemployed are unproductive leeches as they are continually looking for employment but there is such a large pool of applicants and of course everything is on-line so they no longer have the opportunity to meet face to face to sell themselves. The individual is now a word document.
Serious problems that unsure will really ever be resolved. People like to have optimism but what if the truth is global populations are increasing to the point they have outstripped resources for employment, drinking water etc etc.
Sorry for the negative post but when you look outside of your little world in which you live, it is scary what the bigger picture looks like.
Not negative, just a realistic assessment IMHO...
And I really hope the automation predictions don't end up becoming fact; I don't think anyone wants to ponder what that could lead to
You probably cannot [bring back growth] at this stage of the game. You should have moved into the 5th Level Economy in the mid-1990s, but you lacked the educated work-force to do that. You still lack the educated work-force, so until you get an educated work-force, you're pretty much stuck in a rut.
Let's stipulate for discussion's sake, that this is true. Who then shall lead the world forward? China? The EU? The Hanseatic League? If America's longstanding advantages are spent, and the window for credible reform has passed, then maybe America shall go the way of the former British Empire, or some other cautionary historical example. But markets are global. Stocks and bonds and commodities trade according to the aggregate of global conditions, and not (in the long run) the ebbing or rising prosperity of any one nation. The fear is that not only would America's doldrums infect the whole world, but that without a strong America, we can't have a strong world – period. And from the business and investment point of view, how do we deal with that?
Also, if America really is mired in long-term decline, why has the US Dollar been so doggedly strong over the past decade? A weak dollar is helpful both for US-based investors who diversified in foreign stocks, an for US-based companies. A weakening economy, and especially one supposedly awash in debt, should see its currency fall. But this isn't happening. Why not?
Let's stipulate for discussion's sake, that this is true. Who then shall lead the world forward? China? The EU? The Hanseatic League? If America's longstanding advantages are spent, and the window for credible reform has passed, then maybe America shall go the way of the former British Empire, or some other cautionary historical example. But markets are global. Stocks and bonds and commodities trade according to the aggregate of global conditions, and not (in the long run) the ebbing or rising prosperity of any one nation. The fear is that not only would America's doldrums infect the whole world, but that without a strong America, we can't have a strong world – period. And from the business and investment point of view, how do we deal with that?
Also, if America really is mired in long-term decline, why has the US Dollar been so doggedly strong over the past decade? A weak dollar is helpful both for US-based investors who diversified in foreign stocks, an for US-based companies. A weakening economy, and especially one supposedly awash in debt, should see its currency fall. But this isn't happening. Why not?
Let's stipulate for discussion's sake, that this is true. Who then shall lead the world forward? China? The EU? The Hanseatic League?
China and India, and the entire ASEAN Region (which includes Australia and New Zealand). The hub of economic activity will eventually be centered on the Indian Ocean, with the US and Europe on the periphery.
The periphery is not a good place to be.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ohio_peasant
If America's longstanding advantages are spent, and the window for credible reform has passed, then maybe America shall go the way of the former British Empire, or some other cautionary historical example.
Yes, it certainly would.
By the end of this Century, the US will be a lot like Russia: lots of nukes, with a weak economy and mad at the World.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ohio_peasant
But markets are global. Stocks and bonds and commodities trade according to the aggregate of global conditions, and not (in the long run) the ebbing or rising prosperity of any one nation. The fear is that not only would America's doldrums infect the whole world, but that without a strong America, we can't have a strong world – period.
There are 2.5 Billion people in India and China. Their Middle Class each numbers 300+Million, which is far more than the US. Another 1 Billion are in the ASEAN Region.
That's strong enough to drive the global economy.
India is where the US was in 1900, and China in is where the US was in 1930, in terms of level of economic development and growth.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ohio_peasant
And from the business and investment point of view, how do we deal with that?
$5 Profit * 3.5 Billion people is $17.5 Billion
Compare that to $5 Profit * 320 Million Americans = $1.6 Billion
There is far more profit to be made in Asia than in the US.
Asia is an investor's dream. And right behind it is Sub-Saharan Africa, although they're still way behind in development, but add another 1 Billion people with 300 Million in the Middle Class.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ohio_peasant
Also, if America really is mired in long-term decline, why has the US Dollar been so doggedly strong over the past decade? A weak dollar is helpful both for US-based investors who diversified in foreign stocks, an for US-based companies. A weakening economy, and especially one supposedly awash in debt, should see its currency fall. But this isn't happening. Why not?
The USD is still the world's reserve currency and currency of trade, at least for the remainder of this decade. That will change in the years following as China and India continue to gain economic power. It will change rapidly if China, Korea and Japan adopt a unified currency.
Interesting, as it seems the overall trend mentioned in this thread is that populations are growing, technologies efficiencies are stealing the workforce and resources are depleting.
That's an ethnocentric view, as it applies only to 1st World States. For those who live in the 3rd and 4th World, the sky's the limit and there's no place to go but up.
Quote:
Originally Posted by oneslip
These are some very scary trends along with global warming, nuclear ambitious countries and of course the squeezing of corporate greed for the top percentage.
Those are irrelevant.
Quote:
Originally Posted by oneslip
I was talking with a business associate involved in technology & they were saying in 20 years that 50% of the current workforce will no longer be needed due to advances.
Again, that's an ethnocentric view, as it applies only to 1st World States.
There's not going to be any technology in Darfur any time soon.
Quote:
Originally Posted by oneslip
I think the current unemployment figures are so far from the actual numbers of unemployed & I do not think the majority of those unemployed are unproductive leeches as they are continually looking for employment but there is such a large pool of applicants and of course everything is on-line so they no longer have the opportunity to meet face to face to sell themselves. The individual is now a word document.
If you had moved into the 5th Level Economy in the mid-1990s like you were supposed to do, then for every 10 manufacturing jobs lost, you'd gain 9 jobs in Research & Development.
Low level manufacturing is below your dignity.
Quote:
Originally Posted by oneslip
Sorry for the negative post but when you look outside of your little world in which you live, it is scary what the bigger picture looks like.
Feel free to move to one of the developing- or emerging-States, as their outlook is fantastic.
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