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Old 09-28-2008, 08:21 AM
 
Location: SoCal
316 posts, read 692,937 times
Reputation: 70

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I work in commercial construction and it seems to be
slowing down and alot of my friends are now unemployed !

I was thinking by around Jan 2009 we will be in full recession !
(Or maybe were in one now? Not sure ? )
But Im just guessing by the way things are heading now!
We must be really close to one ?


Any Ideas ? Opinions ? Predictions ?

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Old 09-28-2008, 08:50 AM
 
Location: Hope, AR
1,509 posts, read 3,084,927 times
Reputation: 254
Definition of recession is 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth, so technically not until spring of 2009 when they have the #s.
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Old 09-28-2008, 09:04 AM
 
Location: SoCal
316 posts, read 692,937 times
Reputation: 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lulu101 View Post
Definition of recession is 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth, so technically not until spring of 2009 when they have the #s.
Thanks LULU101 .

I found this website which has a recession probability calculator
it uses current

3 month t - bond yield
10 year t - bond yield
fed funds rate

Then it spits out , in percentage recession possibility ?

I ran it .It said 0 possibily of a recession in the next 12 months ? (HUH?) Can that be right?

I HOPE ITS RIGHT!

This is weird !



Anybody ever see this?

Political Calculations: Reckoning the Odds of Recession

Last edited by jetway777; 09-28-2008 at 09:24 AM..
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Old 09-28-2008, 11:25 AM
 
213 posts, read 520,321 times
Reputation: 184
We're already in one. The only reason the "official" numbers don't show it is because the official numbers are cooked.
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Old 09-28-2008, 11:30 AM
 
1,788 posts, read 3,921,731 times
Reputation: 1055
Think of the US economy as a huge ship, that to turn is a long slow process. This long process takes a long time to turn up or down. Right now the ship is heading south and most factors in our economy are pushing it frther south. It does not get turned in the opposite direction overnight. It takes time and many, many changes. You won't see a overnight crash, but a long steady decrease in economic production. I predict we are in for a good long decade of very slow economic times with very little to no growth. We will see a decrease in jobs over the next 10 years too. That being said, as a nation, I do believe we will survive.

It is basically our turn to go through the storm. Russia had theirs, Then developing Asia, then Europe and Japan. Those areas all rebounded and are doing much better. It's now our turn and we have nobody to blame but ourselves.
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Old 09-28-2008, 11:42 AM
 
Location: SoCal
316 posts, read 692,937 times
Reputation: 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by lastinshow View Post
We're already in one. The only reason the "official" numbers don't show it is because the official numbers are cooked.
I have a feeling your right ! And I have a BAD (Gut) feeling were
sliping into a deep recession right now !

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Old 09-28-2008, 11:43 AM
 
485 posts, read 1,840,569 times
Reputation: 390
President Bush inherited a strong economy and put us in recession in mid 2000, and leaves America in the worst economic situation since the 1930s. Thanks George!

Yes I know many of the Republicans will tell you that Bush Inherited the recession. That is false. We had very low unemployment and a budget surplus when Bush took office and then he drove the economy into recession.

Last edited by Refugee56; 09-28-2008 at 11:51 AM..
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Old 09-28-2008, 11:48 AM
 
1,788 posts, read 3,921,731 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Refugee56 View Post
President Bush inherited a strong economy and put us in recession in mid 2000, and leaves America in the worst economic situation since the 1930s. Thanks George!
Umm, actually that is totally false. We had the HUGE crash and burst of the .com era days after Bush took office. Spring of 2000 ring a bell? We had a house of cards based on a fake .com stock market with a nasdaq pushing 6000 under Clinton. All hot air, nothing of substance. We had ahuge spike in unemployment. Bush actually got into office and made drastic and bold changes via a huge tax cut to save us from a major, major recession. Unemployment dropped to a historical average low of under 5% for most of his term. This despite the .com bust, 9-11 and so on.

Fast forward to where we are now? I blame all those bassstards in Congress, republicans and democrats. I blame every last one!
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Old 09-28-2008, 11:51 AM
 
Location: Hope, AR
1,509 posts, read 3,084,927 times
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Japan went into recession in 1990 and they still haven't come out of it, I believe. But the Japanese have a high savings rate, which helped them weather the storm.

Unfortunately, we don't have that.
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Old 09-28-2008, 11:55 AM
 
Location: Denver metro
1,225 posts, read 3,230,422 times
Reputation: 2301
I think that it's pretty obvious that we are in a recession now. The Christmas shopping season is coming up shortly, and that should tell us alot. It should be interesting to hear the reports early next year.
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