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Rick Perry has no chance at all. The only republican that would stack up against obama is huntsman IMO but his own party has gone so extreme that he could never win the republican nomination to run against obama.
Keep in mind, anyone can beat anyone else depending on tricks played.
Remember George W Bush had a 4 point lead over Gore and almost lost when Gore's operatives revealed some 15 year old ticket Bush had of driving real slow while drunk before he gave up booze.
That swung enough last minute votes so that Gore almost won.
So based on that and Kennedy stealing the election with the mob from Nixon, I believe anything could happen.
That ticket was revealed like three days before the election and the Democrat press ran 24-7 with it.
Exactly! The one advantage that Obama has is that ALL of his negatives are already out there. People will be bored of the same old same old Obama Muslim/birther/economy/no experience bashing. But with Perry, whatever negatives come out in the open will be a moment. It will be new for the media and voters to soak in.
Perry has no shot at winning, and I did not vote for Obama in '08, and dislike his performance. Romney would win with ease. Swing states are the whole race. Last I checked, Texas does not have 270 electoral votes, and is a solid red state every single race. Not Ohio, not Colorado, or any other swing state.
I think this is pretty accurate. Romney beats Obama. Obama beats Perry. Times are hard, and in hard times left leaners will look to the other side and think -- eh, why not roll the dice? If they look over and see a mild mannered guy with a business background, they will probably go for it. If they look over and see a rootin' tootin' blustery cowboy who can't even abide something as entrenched as Social Security, they are going to remember why they lean left in the first place and stick with their guy.
To once again quote slick Willy.. "It's the economy stupid". If unemployment is still at or around 9% and we are in a recession, the GOP could nominate "Daffy Duck" and get him elected.
Obama could easily beat anyone in the GOP field besides Paul or Huntsman, though neither of them could ever get the nom.
I think the only thing Obama can beat these days is himself.
Would take a near act of God to give him something that people would keep him in office for.
Bin Laden only gave him a few points of approval for a week.
Obama did win North Carolina in 2008 but the GOP took over the state general assembly in 2010 for the first time since the 1800s. The GOP in North Carolina already has a trick up its sleeve to keep Obama from winning the state in 2012 and that is to put a state gay marriage ban on the ballot. Since most republicans oppose gay marriage, That issue alone would encourage republicans to come to the polls in 2012. We see this every election year. Social issues are brought to the forefront as bait to increase turnout at the polls. Social security is no different but Perry is making it easy for the deomcrats.
Bingo, westcobb, as for your last 2 phrases, the inverse also holds true. Anyone not scaring off the indys leaning the other way, 1980 Reagan vs Carter, wins. Had a TP run in '80, Carter wins. Just need to present an acceptable, not extreme option.
Romney's answer on SS was as smart politically as BC's handling of similar tricky questions.
To once again quote slick Willy.. "It's the economy stupid". If unemployment is still at or around 9% and we are in a recession, the GOP could nominate "Daffy Duck" and get him elected.
Go ahead and think that, but history is made all the time. It would be unusual for a president to get reelected in this economic climate, but it's still very doable. Obama has to make the case that he didn't cause the mess, which is true -- the economy tanked before he took office, and most Americans can still remember four years of history. And then Obama has to convince the public that his solution is better than what the Tea Party plans to do. The TP champions Harding. Obama champions FDR. If you don't think FDR can beat Harding, you've been listening to too much talk radio. Most Americans still like New Deal legilsation and credit it with saving us from the Great Depression.
Bingo, westcobb, as for your last 2 phrases, the inverse also holds true. Anyone not scaring off the indys leaning the other way, 1980 Reagan vs Carter, wins. Had a TP run in '80, Carter wins. Just need to present an acceptable, not extreme option. Romney's answer on SS was as smart politically as BC's handling of similar tricky questions.
I didn't really think much of Romney until the last debate. Up until then, he didn't really stand out much. However, he proved he was ready for the Perry threat. I agree his statement about Social Security was perfect. He was able to both reassure those who want to see it changed as well as those who want to keep it.
As good as Romney was, Perry was dissappointing. He acted completely caught off guard by the questions about Gardisal and Social Security. Really? He wasn't prepared for them? It didn't occur to him that they would come up?
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moment. It will be new for the media and voters to soak in.
