Obama will win...electoral map fun (voters, Reagan, environmentalist, myth)

[jasper12]

Which is why I don't bother to vote. The popular vote is completely meaningless. Only electoral college votes matter. My vote is null. May as well live in Iran.

[mateo45]

Originally Posted by Ed from California

I'll say again, obama will lose in a landslide. Have fun with your charts but they're meaningless and we all know it.

This is a good example of the neo-cons these days. Their "magical thinking", and indeed everything they know about the world now comes from the Right Wing echo chamber (which pretty much just tells 'em whatever they wanna hear).... and everything else they just dismiss as a "meaningless" product of the "lib-rul media" (aka, "facts")!

But of course come November when they inevitably get a rude awakening, they'll still be in denial and playing the "victim", because obviously it had to be due to some vast conspiracy by "Hollywood".... and (you guessed it) the "lib-rul media"!

[marcopolo]

Originally Posted by DC's Finest

Shows us the states that Romney will win to get to 270?

FL, OH, NC, WI, IA, MO, AZ, plus any one of NV, CO, VA, MI, NH. If the president's approval rating continues in the 45% range, Romney will likely win all of these. Obama seems to be doubling down on policy proposals that are not selling and campaign strategies that are flawed, and his syncophants tell him it is just a matter of talking more. By election day, 53-55% of us might be awfully tired of hearing him talk.

[mateo45]

Originally Posted by Ed from California

I'll say again, obama will lose in a landslide. Have fun with your charts but they're meaningless and we all know it.

This is a good example of the problem with the neo-cons these days. Their "magical thinking", and indeed everything they know about the world comes from the Right Wing echo chamber (which pretty much just tells 'em whatever they wanna hear).... and so everything else they just dismiss as a "meaningless" product of the "lib-rul media" (aka, "facts")!

But of course when they inevitably get a rude awakening come November, they'll still be in denial and playing the "victim", because it had to caused by some vast conspiracy by "Hollywood" and (you guessed it) the "lib-rul media"!

Originally Posted by jasper12

Which is why I don't bother to vote. The popular vote is completely meaningless. Only electoral college votes matter. My vote is null. May as well live in Iran.

You might want to rethink the desirability of that "popular" vote:
Behind the Republican Resistance to Compromise - NYTimes.com

[LordSquidworth]

Originally Posted by Clark Park

I think it is still too soon to make predictions ... even if it is already mid-June. We'll just have to wait and see the polls after the political conventions (Romney will get a bump up after the GOP Convention), and the presidential debates (someone could make a huge gaff).

This might be a very close election. If someone out there is hoping for a huge landslide for their guy and a total repudiation of the other candidate, that is not going to happen.

Elections are easy to call a year before they happen these days.

They're boring now.

[chucksnee]

Originally Posted by LordSquidworth

Elections are easy to call a year before they happen these days.

They're boring now.

Did you call the November 2010 elections? What about the Wisconsin election?

[Ferd]

Very little in the polls are currently showing right now matters.

What matters is what Americans think of the economy on Oct 1. If Americans think the economy is not good and not improving advantage Romney. In Americans think the economy is improving, advantage Obama.

And the tie breaker always goes to the incumbent.

The things you can take from the polls are
1. Does Obama break 50%?
2. Does the. Right track/wrong track number go above or below 50%
3. Does Obamas personal approval break 50%.

And then with all three what direction does the trend go?

These things matter now. The rest is just fodder.

[LordSquidworth]

Originally Posted by chucksnee

Did you call the November 2010 elections? What about the Wisconsin election?

Overall? Yes. Repubs got house. Wasn't that hard to tell. The recall failing? Wasn't that difficult to tell.

Watch the tone of the media. Listen to what everyone is saying (though ignore the loud ones, they're often the minority). Just look at the overall emotions of the country. Be a logical thinker. Don't let emotions cloud your mind.

McCain lost as soon as he picked up Palin. Though it could be argued he lost even soon because of Bush. But Palin was the nail in the coffin.

Repubs gained the house soon as the Tea Party sprung up.

Recall vote failed because he got elected in the first place and see above (loudest ones rarely represent the majority).

Santorum lost because he went too deep in the religious stuff.

Gingrich lost because he's gone off the crazy train and he's been around too long.

Paul never stood a chance.

Romney lost because of the mess that was picking a Republican candidate. Aside from the fact all the candidates were sub par, they did nothing to attract independents by going far right and continue to do so. In a general election, the independents are far more important than your party. Him being Romney and the actions of the house the past couple years haven't helped.

Originally Posted by Ferd

And the tie breaker always goes to the incumbent.

and Obama is the incumbent.

The only chance Romney has is the economy cratering. But October would be too late. It has to be in the next couple months, and I don't foresee the economy crashing this summer. Soon as the Euros get their stuff figured out the markets will resume going upwards. If they vote favorably Sunday, then my estimate of the market rebound from the recent selloff for 6/20 would be close enough. But this is the first time I've estimated a market rebound.

[Ed from California]

We're going to love November.

[Clark Park]

At this point in time, I think Obama will beat Romney.