The Rise of Cory Booker

[LauraC]

Originally Posted by Smash255

Please see the part of your post I bolded........

Yeah but the same post also says this:

"A Quinnipiac poll released last week showed Booker leading Lonegan by 12 points, and even that poll was considered a positive sign for the former Bogota mayor, as the earliest tallies showed Booker ahead by over 20 points."

[case44]

Originally Posted by eloyfan

Witness the impending ascension of Cory Booker in the political arena. The newest-to-be New Jersey senator, then my prediction is he will be the Democratic nominee for POTUS in 2016. And I'll bet he will be our next president. Would that not torque the GOP?

Discuss.

Don't get too excited yet. I don't know much about him but I've heard a little bit. Nonetheless, I'm skeptical. If he were a conservative, then I'd bet money on him running along with Ted Cruz. Since he is a Democrat, however, I suspect he's going to probably do the same things most liberals do, and that's lie, cover up things, and not be real with people. The last thing America needs is another socialist, not to mention another liar. We've been burned once already.

Besides, it's too early to pronounce him as a presidential candidate. Regardless of affiliation, he's going to need a lot more experience.

[Smash255]

Originally Posted by LauraC

Yeah but the same post also says this:

"A Quinnipiac poll released last week showed Booker leading Lonegan by 12 points, and even that poll was considered a positive sign for the former Bogota mayor, as the earliest tallies showed Booker ahead by over 20 points."

Of course it doesn't mention the other three polls that were taken around the same period. The 12 point margin was the slimest of 4 polls taken around the same time period. The polls range from 12-26, with the average being in the 17 or 18 point range (which is probably where it is)

[Unsettomati]

Originally Posted by LauraC

Yeah but the same post also says this:

"A Quinnipiac poll released last week showed Booker leading Lonegan by 12 points, and even that poll was considered a positive sign for the former Bogota mayor, as the earliest tallies showed Booker ahead by over 20 points."

And 12 points means he's going to win. Easily.

The fact that his lead isn't as vast as it once was is because polls tend to tighten as the election approaches. This is why Governor Christie, who regularly lead by 40+% over Buono at the beginning of the year, has sported leads in the teens in two of the last three polls, and regularly polls in the 20s.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2013/governor/nj/new_jersey_governor_christie_vs_buono-3411.html#polls

Is this because there is 'something wrong' with the Christie campaign? No. It is just typical election dynamics. So it is with Booker, who has never led by more than 35% in any polls, and that poll was an outlier - otherwise, his lead peaked at 28%.

The latest poll on the Senate race has Booker +13%. It is a Monmouth poll - their previous polls on this race had Booker +16% in August and in June. That's your big dropoff, 3%?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2013/senate/nj/new_jersey_senate_special_election_lonegan_vs_book er-3938.html#polls

Average Booker's most recent three polls (and, no, I'm not counting that ridiculous internal poll by the Lonegan campaign, in which they refused to release any internal data at all, or even to identify the pollster) and he leads by 15%. Average his first three polls (from June) and he led by 20%. That erosion of barely 1%/month is just normal tightening. By comparison, Christie's last three polls give him an average lead of 24%, whereas his first three June polls showed him with an average lead of 31%. Just as with Booker, that's normal tightening of the race.

Cherry-pick polls all you want, but a look at the polls as a whole showing nothing unusual.