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Old 01-18-2016, 09:07 PM
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,608 posts, read 16,590,384 times
Reputation: 6055

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Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
Hillary will win rigged primary that has rules which favors her. But she is facing landslide losses in general election where most of America sees this woman for what she is.
If the primary favored her in particular, then why arent we talking about who would replace President Hillary Clinton ????

 
Old 01-19-2016, 10:45 PM
 
34,279 posts, read 19,402,706 times
Reputation: 17261
Sanders is up by 27 points in the latest NH poll. And that was BEFORE last nights debates.

Sanders up 27 points on Clinton in NH, says new poll | TheHill

Wonder what they look like now.
 
Old 01-19-2016, 10:47 PM
 
34,279 posts, read 19,402,706 times
Reputation: 17261
Quote:
Originally Posted by biscuitmom View Post
The Des Moines Register says that Sanders' could lose Iowa delegate votes since the college students who account for his poll lead are concentrated in only 3 precincts.
They point out it's very different since Obama ran there because then the students were at home on break. Now they'll be in class on Caucus night:
Islands of college-town support could hurt Sanders
Which might be of interest if they had polled or provided the polls for the non-college areas. Winning by 52-48 is still winning.
 
Old 01-19-2016, 11:02 PM
 
11,181 posts, read 10,547,027 times
Reputation: 18618
Quote:
Originally Posted by greywar View Post
Winning by 52-48 is still winning.
Only if the +4 show up at caucuses! Which I hope they do, I'd love for Bernie's campaign to have legs that extend past Iowa and NH
 
Old 01-20-2016, 12:05 AM
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,608 posts, read 16,590,384 times
Reputation: 6055
Quote:
Originally Posted by greywar View Post
Which might be of interest if they had polled or provided the polls for the non-college areas. Winning by 52-48 is still winning.
That isnt actually how the caucus works though, It is more like the electoral college than it is like a popular vote.

you can win a majority of precincts, but not a majority of delegates as the delegates chosen to go to the convention are voted on by their own merits, not necessarily which candidate they support.

so technically, Sanders could win the popular vote with 52% and get 0 Delegates, although improbable.

there are 52 Delegates total, Clinton has the bigger ground support and probably the majority of Party leaders who will probably be delegates themselves.

This above all else is why Clinton will win Iowa even if she slightly loses the popular vote.
 
Old 01-20-2016, 02:22 AM
 
14,221 posts, read 6,978,571 times
Reputation: 6059
Let's hope the FDR democrat wins. The latest NH poll is good news. We cant have another corporate democrat. This attitude that democrats must be more like the GOP or they will lose is why the dems lost big time in 2014. It's not that the country is not progressive. It is very progressive and social democratic. Source: What do Americans believe?

But so many dont bother to vote when Goldman Sachs and Citigroup will be the ones who call the shots from the Treasury anyway, whether its a corporate Democrat or GOP administration. Sanders is a breath of fresh air.
 
Old 01-20-2016, 03:56 AM
 
52,430 posts, read 26,688,370 times
Reputation: 21097
Nate Silver is projecting that Hillary Clinton has an 80% chance of winning Iowa.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...wa-democratic/
 
Old 01-20-2016, 07:28 AM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,205 posts, read 19,494,856 times
Reputation: 5309
Quote:
Originally Posted by greywar View Post
Sanders is up by 27 points in the latest NH poll. And that was BEFORE last nights debates.

Sanders up 27 points on Clinton in NH, says new poll | TheHill

Wonder what they look like now.
I'm a Sanders supporter, but this poll is certainly out there. Sanders is up in N.H, and likely fairly comfortably, but I highly doubt its 27.
 
Old 01-20-2016, 07:34 AM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,205 posts, read 19,494,856 times
Reputation: 5309
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsjj251 View Post
That isnt actually how the caucus works though, It is more like the electoral college than it is like a popular vote.

you can win a majority of precincts, but not a majority of delegates as the delegates chosen to go to the convention are voted on by their own merits, not necessarily which candidate they support.

so technically, Sanders could win the popular vote with 52% and get 0 Delegates, although improbable.

there are 52 Delegates total, Clinton has the bigger ground support and probably the majority of Party leaders who will probably be delegates themselves.

This above all else is why Clinton will win Iowa even if she slightly loses the popular vote.
The Convention delegates in Iowa typically come pretty close to matching the results at the initial Caucus, so I don't think that will really be much of an issue. Either way the county Convention delegates won't mean that much in the whole scheme of things. Any difference will be rather small, it's the momentum either candidate gets from Caucus night that will be the bigger story than who gets an extra 2 or 3 delegates in a couple months when they do the county Convention.
 
Old 01-20-2016, 07:39 AM
 
5,719 posts, read 6,454,198 times
Reputation: 3647
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
Nate Silver is projecting that Hillary Clinton has an 80% chance of winning Iowa.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...wa-democratic/
Good. Nate Silver has a great track record.


The Republicans are handing us this election on a silver platter. Nominating Bernie would be foolish.
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