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Yes, Bernie has long since past the point where he was running FOR something. Now he's just running AGAINST Clinton.
As we've discussed before, this approach is fairly typical when a candidate is losing and becomes desperate. Remember in 2008 how a few days before the election the McCain camp labeled Obama a socialist? Like most desperate attempts it failed.
Bernie seems to be doing pretty much the same thing now, and it also probably won't work. Perhaps he's helping to prepare her for the upcoming general election; she'll certainly face similar and much harsher attacks from the Republican candidate, so maybe Bernie's approach might be beneficial in the long run.
21 primaries - Hillary Clinton +369 delegates
14 caucuses - Bernie Sanders +149 delegates (already accounted for the 4 delegates he flipped in Nevada)
Over 90% of the total votes are in primaries.
Upcoming 22 contests are 17 primaries and 5 caucuses (Puerto Rico, North Dakota, Wyoming, Guam, U.S. Virgin Islands)
Any recent PA polls? It's exciting we actually matter this year hah-usually it's already decided by the time we vote.
There's not all that much polling for PA, but what few there are indicate Hilary is leading by about 25%. I think that's to be expected consider PA's demos - significant minority voters (esp AAs), and a significant portion of urban voters.
And of course PA is among the 5 state primaries on April 26, all of which polling indicates Hilary will win. Even if she does a little worse than expected, it'll be the death knell for Bernie. If he's trailing by 250+ delegates after April 26, it's over because then CA is the only remaining delegate-rich state.
My rule of Thumb for predicting margins using aggregate polling(weighted towards better pollsters) is this:
Caucus favoring Bernie: Add 10% to the margin of victory for Sanders
Open primary: Add 5-10% to the margin of victory for Sanders
Semi-open primary favoring Bernie: Add 5% to the margin of victory for Sanders
Closed primary favoring Clinton: Add 5-10% to the margin of victory for Clinton
WI currently shows a 2.6% margin victory for Sanders in the aggregate polling on RCP. Since this is an open primary, I expect this to be more around a 5%-10% margin victory for Sanders...probably around 52:44 final vote count.
New York currently shows an 11% margin victory for Clinton, however there's only two polls. Clinton beat Obama by 57:40 or so in 2008 and that's with Obama having a stronger advantage in minorities(particularly blacks) than Sanders did. I actually expect a similar margin of victory for Clinton so somewhere around 56:41 or a 15% margin of victory because it's a closed primary and they heavily favor Clinton.
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