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Arizona already has higher turnout than 2008 and Hillary won by 15%
And the alleged voter suppression, if true which I don't comment on, would not be able to overcome that amount anyways since it affects both Clinton and sanders supporters
Really? Arizona only had 409 000 votes from what I've seen, more than 10% lower than in 2008, which wasnt great either. Do you have a link to turnout percentage by year for AZ primaries?
I dont think you can say that a state with 6 hour long lines to vote and ongoing investigations of massive voter suppression is a good example of high voter turnout. And Sanders actually won same day voting in AZ.
Really? Arizona only had 409 000 votes from what I've seen, more than 10% lower than in 2008, which wasnt great either. Do you have a link to turnout percentage by year for AZ primaries?
I dont think you can say that a state with 6 hour long lines to vote and ongoing investigations of massive voter suppression is a good example of high voter turnout. And Sanders actually won same day voting in AZ.
Lets wait and see what the voter suppression investigation says. It is not good to use such a state as a great example of a state with high voter turnout (was 2008 even the highest ever?).
Lets wait and see what the voter suppression investigation says. It is not good to use such a state as a great example of a state with high voter turnout (was 2008 even the highest ever?).
Either way there won't be a revote
Unless they know who you voted for and change the results, there is no way the results will not be honored because the so called suppression doesn't target any candidate specifically
Either way there won't be a revote
Unless they know who you voted for and change the results, there is no way the results will not be honored because the so called suppression doesn't target any candidate specifically
It heavily favored Clinton who had worked those early voters. Who knows how many Bernie supporters just left after waiting hours in line in scorching heat. 450k voters in a state of 7 million is not a lot.
GOP tactics to suppress the vote favors Clinton. The new voter ID laws in WI affecting young people in particular is another one.
My rule of Thumb for predicting margins using aggregate polling(weighted towards better pollsters) is this:
Caucus favoring Bernie: Add 10% to the margin of victory for Sanders
Open primary: Add 5-10% to the margin of victory for Sanders
Semi-open primary favoring Bernie: Add 5% to the margin of victory for Sanders
Closed primary favoring Clinton: Add 5-10% to the margin of victory for Clinton
WI currently shows a 2.6% margin victory for Sanders in the aggregate polling on RCP. Since this is an open primary, I expect this to be more around a 5%-10% margin victory for Sanders...probably around 52:44 final vote count.
New York currently shows an 11% margin victory for Clinton, however there's only two polls. Clinton beat Obama by 57:40 or so in 2008 and that's with Obama having a stronger advantage in minorities(particularly blacks) than Sanders did. I actually expect a similar margin of victory for Clinton so somewhere around 56:41 or a 15% margin of victory because it's a closed primary and they heavily favor Clinton.
Hmmm, so far my margin seems pretty close...8%, but I think Bernie will win by 10% so my rule of thumb seems correct based on how this primary season has gone. Bernie will always overperform the RCP average when it's a caucus, semi or open primary and Clinton will overperform the RCP average when it's a closed primary. The exit polls in Wisconsin had her winning black voters by a near 50% margin and Democrats in Wisconsin are still choosing her over Bernie which bodes VERY well in New York, PA, and Maryland so Clinton just has to survive one more state(Wyoming), then it's time to rock and roll.
I expect both Clinton and Trump to put daggers in their respective opponents by April 26th.
Hmmm, so far my margin seems pretty close...8%, but I think Bernie will win by 10% so my rule of thumb seems correct based on how this primary season has gone. Bernie will always overperform the RCP average when it's a caucus, semi or open primary and Clinton will overperform the RCP average when it's a closed primary. The exit polls in Wisconsin had her winning black voters by a near 50% margin and Democrats in Wisconsin are still choosing her over Bernie which bodes VERY well in New York, PA, and Maryland so Clinton just has to survive one more state(Wyoming), then it's time to rock and roll.
I expect both Clinton and Trump to put daggers in their respective opponents by April 26th.
It's very likely Clinton will have it locked up by then, but it's entirely possible Trump won't have enough delegates to secure the nomination. That is, he'll have more delegates than anyone else, but won't have the majority of delegates. He'd still be the likely nominee, but getting there via a contested convention could be ugly.
National (McClatchy-Marist) : Sanders +2
Pennsylvania (Qunnipiac) : Clinton +6
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanapolicRiddle
It's very likely Clinton will have it locked up by then, but it's entirely possible Trump won't have enough delegates to secure the nomination. That is, he'll have more delegates than anyone else, but won't have the majority of delegates. He'd still be the likely nominee, but getting there via a contested convention could be ugly.
I think Sanders now has all the energy, momentum and most importantly, money to run an impressive campaign.
Even though Hillary still leads by about 210 delegates after taking into account Wisconsin and Nevada new results, Sanders got about 239 delegates while Hillary got only 133 delegates since March 15th. There are still 1661 pledged delegates in upcoming contests and there is certainly a probable chance for Sanders to overtake her. Since the media includes superdelegates in delegate count, Hillary will likely be declared the Presumptive Nominee by MSM on the night California votes, regardless whether she still leads Sanders in terms of pledged delegates.
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