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Look at those numbers, oooooff! Said it before and I will say it again, if its Hillary and Trump, he will lose in an epic landslide. It will be one of the most lopsided elections in history.
In a hypothetical Clinton v. Trump contest in November, voters under 35 would choose Clinton by a crushing 52%-19%, a preference that crosses demographic lines. Among whites, she'd be backed by nearly 2-1, 45%-26%. Among Hispanics, by more than 4-1, 61%-14%. Among Asian Americans, by 5-1, 60%-11%. Among African Americans, by 13-1, 67%-5%. ...Nearly one in four Republicans would defect to the Democrats if the GOP nominated Trump against Clinton. Just 7% of Democrats would defect to the GOP. A new Reuters poll shows that fully 50 percent of American women hold a "very unfavorable" view of Trump, up ten points since the fall. The survey predicts that Clinton would beat Trump among women by 14 points, while Trump would narrowly carry men. That math portends a decisive loss. A new Gallup poll shows that only 12 percent of U.S. Hispanics have a favorable opinion of Trump, while 77 percent have an unfavorable view of him. By comparison, 59 percent of Hispanics have a favorable view of Democratic hopeful Hillary Clinton.
and your boy Rafael Cruz will do better in the general with his extreme anti-abortion stand, gay bashing and immigration proposals?
Yeah Cruz is a darling for blacks, latinos, independents and democrats.
You can't win with just the white Vote anymore those days are over. Plus plenty of young white mellenials do not like Trump
And, those young white millennials support Sanders and probably won't show up to vote for Hillary. Didn't think about that did you? That is a voting block that usually talks the talk but doesn't walk the walk.
I also found nothing current on a match-up that excluded Rubio. For some reason, the math, along with many other core skills, seems to escape people looking at this. Let's make it simple: The Smith family of 4 has a package of one dozen cookies (that would be 12 cookies), the Jones family of 2 has a package of one dozen cookies (again 12 cookies). They both decide to divide the cookies equally among the family members. In the Smith family of 4, each member gets 3 cookies and in the Jones family of 2, each member gets 6 cookies. Sure, we all want to be a member of the Jones family and get 6 cookies but each time one of us joins the Jones family, there will be less cookies for each family member. I cannot make it more simple.
Also, have you heard the latest on Hillary? It isn't getting any better.
I think Bernie is a better bet than Hillary but if he were doing even better, it would be him getting the "white" powder in the mail and his personal information hacked. Both parties are "dirty".
t he has more of a chance of peeling off black voters than any other Republican would have. He can go to them and say honestly that he is a genuine liberal, and point out that their community is needs the jobs he is promising more than any. He doesn't need much. If he gets to 10% of the black vote he cannot lose the election.
He would never do that - couldn't risk having it taped and played all over the place. Would lose a lot of his supporters if seen selling them out to get black votes.
Originally Posted by AnywhereElse;43410373 For some reason, the math, along with many other core skills, seems to escape people looking at this. Let's make it simple: The Smith family of 4 has a package of one dozen cookies (that would be 12 cookies) I cannot make it more simple.
Thank you for once again showing your superior education and knowledge to all us non-trump dummies.
Your math has a flaw in it, tho... the vote cookies were never divided up 'equally', and trump has, so far, not gotten more than half of the vote cookies in any given election. In fact, he has gotten significantly less than half in some, and his nearest rival has gotten almost as many vote cookies as he in some. Then, there is the 'dozen (that would be 12) cookies' (let's call them 'voters') on the other side, who are really, very unlikely to want trump's cookies. Really, very simple.
The problem the Republican Party has is that neither Trump nor Cruz will do well in a general election with women and minorities. Trump is Hillary's biggest weapon to get people to the polls and vote for her.
Watch and see in November.
In 2012, white college grad voters accounted for 36% of total votes cast and gave 56% to Romney. Their turnout rate was estimated by Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report to be 77%
Non-college whites also accounted for 36% of the total vote (for 72% N/H white overall) and gave Romney 62%, but only 57% turned out.
Blacks voted for Obama 93-7 and turned out at a rate of 66%.
Hispanics voted for Obama 71-29 and turned out at a rate of 48%.
Asians voted for Obama at a rate of 67-33 and had a 49% turnout.
Turnout has historically been tied to educational attainment, so the higher turnout for white college grads than non-college grads is to be expected.
For war gaming purposes though, let's assume that the non-college N/H turnout rate shoots all the way up to 77% to match the 2012 white college numbers. Using the 538 estimator at the link provided, if you leave everything else constant and only jump the non-college white voter turnout to 77%, only Florida would move from the 2012 results. Democrats win the electoral vote 303-235 and the national popular vote 50.1% to 48.2%.
Next, since non-college white turnout alone won't change the outcome, lets increase the white non-college R percentage from 62% to 65%. In that scenario, the GOP wins the national popular vote 49.6% to 48.7%, but only add Ohio and Virginia, and still lose in the electoral college 272-266.
Next, lets move the white non-college percentage all the way to 70% GOP. With a 70% margin and a 77% turnout, you finally get a big Republican win, but not a landslide (as defined by a double digit win in the popular vote). In that scenario, you get an R win of 51.8% to 46.5% (+5.3%).
If you take all of the above, and reduce the Democrats edge from 93-7 to 88-12, which is about the Kerry numbers, and reduce black turnout to 60%:
GOP wins the electoral college 354-184 and the national popular vote 52.8%-45.5% (+7.3). That would be about the Obama margin from 2008; a strong win, but no landslide.
It's evident from looking at the math, that the base of the non-college non-Hispanic white voters is not large enough to boost Trump to a legitimate landslide. Even if you don't factor in blowback in the form of even worse minority percentages than a Republican usually gets, the only way to get close to a double digit win is to perform far better among college white grads, and given Trumpf's current polling with college grads and women, it looks highly inprobable.
Look at those numbers, oooooff! Said it before and I will say it again, if its Hillary and Trump, he will lose in an epic landslide. It will be one of the most lopsided elections in history.
In a hypothetical Clinton v. Trump contest in November, voters under 35 would choose Clinton by a crushing 52%-19%, a preference that crosses demographic lines. Among whites, she'd be backed by nearly 2-1, 45%-26%. Among Hispanics, by more than 4-1, 61%-14%. Among Asian Americans, by 5-1, 60%-11%. Among African Americans, by 13-1, 67%-5%. ...Nearly one in four Republicans would defect to the Democrats if the GOP nominated Trump against Clinton. Just 7% of Democrats would defect to the GOP. A new Reuters poll shows that fully 50 percent of American women hold a "very unfavorable" view of Trump, up ten points since the fall. The survey predicts that Clinton would beat Trump among women by 14 points, while Trump would narrowly carry men. That math portends a decisive loss. A new Gallup poll shows that only 12 percent of U.S. Hispanics have a favorable opinion of Trump, while 77 percent have an unfavorable view of him. By comparison, 59 percent of Hispanics have a favorable view of Democratic hopeful Hillary Clinton.
And, those young white millennials support Sanders and probably won't show up to vote for Hillary. Didn't think about that did you? That is a voting block that usually talks the talk but doesn't walk the walk.
I also found nothing current on a match-up that excluded Rubio. For some reason, the math, along with many other core skills, seems to escape people looking at this. Let's make it simple: The Smith family of 4 has a package of one dozen cookies (that would be 12 cookies), the Jones family of 2 has a package of one dozen cookies (again 12 cookies). They both decide to divide the cookies equally among the family members. In the Smith family of 4, each member gets 3 cookies and in the Jones family of 2, each member gets 6 cookies. Sure, we all want to be a member of the Jones family and get 6 cookies but each time one of us joins the Jones family, there will be less cookies for each family member. I cannot make it more simple.
Also, have you heard the latest on Hillary? It isn't getting any better.
I think Bernie is a better bet than Hillary but if he were doing even better, it would be him getting the "white" powder in the mail and his personal information hacked. Both parties are "dirty".
They probably won't and yes I know some of them won't vote for her. I like many others will probably sit this election out. It's a **** show of a election if you ask me.
Look at those numbers, oooooff! Said it before and I will say it again, if its Hillary and Trump, he will lose in an epic landslide. It will be one of the most lopsided elections in history.
In a hypothetical Clinton v. Trump contest in November, voters under 35 would choose Clinton by a crushing 52%-19%, a preference that crosses demographic lines. Among whites, she'd be backed by nearly 2-1, 45%-26%. Among Hispanics, by more than 4-1, 61%-14%. Among Asian Americans, by 5-1, 60%-11%. Among African Americans, by 13-1, 67%-5%. ...Nearly one in four Republicans would defect to the Democrats if the GOP nominated Trump against Clinton. Just 7% of Democrats would defect to the GOP. A new Reuters poll shows that fully 50 percent of American women hold a "very unfavorable" view of Trump, up ten points since the fall. The survey predicts that Clinton would beat Trump among women by 14 points, while Trump would narrowly carry men. That math portends a decisive loss. A new Gallup poll shows that only 12 percent of U.S. Hispanics have a favorable opinion of Trump, while 77 percent have an unfavorable view of him. By comparison, 59 percent of Hispanics have a favorable view of Democratic hopeful Hillary Clinton.
You are right. No chance at all. Let's find out!
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I cannot make it more simple. 
