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I am now of the belief that Mr. John Kasich, the governor from Ohio, will be our next President. Here's how it happens:
1. Trump falls short of 1,267 delegates
2. Trump threatens to run as an Independent if he's not chosen by the GOP, but the GOP says go ahead and do that, and they nominate Kasich
3. Trump runs as an Independent
4. Hillary wins a plurality in the electoral college, but fails to get to 270. Kasich wins Ohio and maybe 1-3 other states. The GOP keeps him off the ballot in many states, letting Trump win.
5. The election goes to the newly elected Congress and they vote for Kasich
Our newly elected President is sworn in with something like 25% of the popular vote.
I think you are right until your step 3... trump will never run independent. He won't waste money on that - if he isn't being backed by the republicans, he won't go it alone. Pouty threat aside, he just won't work that hard for it. So, Kasich could possibly beat Hillary, since he is already beating her in those disgusting polls.
The GOP needs to understand that with the changing demographics of the U.S., someone as right-wing as Cruz will never win.
It's time for the GOP to move more toward the middle and attempt to broker bipartisan deals rather than lose every election.
Romney's defeat should have been a lesson as to why not to push Cruz ...
Even as part Latino, does anyone really think Ted appeals to the Latino population ? Blacks ?
The GOP needs to understand that with the changing demographics of the U.S., someone as right-wing as Cruz will never win.
It's time for the GOP to move more toward the middle and attempt to broker bipartisan deals rather than lose every election.
Romney's defeat should have been a lesson as to why not to push Cruz ...
Even as part Latino, does anyone really think Ted appeals to the Latino population ? Blacks ?
I could go on...
to anyone who is fiscally conservative but socially liberal ? to anyone who supports Abortion rights or equal rights for the LGBT community, to any hardcore Trump supportor (because if Trump is robbed of the nomination why would you vote for the robber ?) and remember he lost several key swing states, namely Ohio and Florida.
Because he is the ONLY GOP candidate that beats Hillary in every national poll and is ahead of her in EVERY SINGLE SWING STATE.
If Trump and Cruz can't get a majority and they are forced to go to a third person on later ballots, then why not go with the only GOP candidate with a net positive favorability rating?
I'm very skeptical on the reliability of general election polling at this stage. And because Kasich hasn't been seen as a threat by any of his republican rivals, he's gotten very little negative attention.
Quote:
Originally Posted by michiganmoon
Hillary has played nice against Bernie...because she doesn't want the mountain of her dirt aired.
Hillary has a mountain of dirt, Kasich a mound of dirt. Hillary knows better...with Trump she would be forced to throw dirt, because his mountain may be bigger.
Hillary has had decades of dirt thrown at her, and she's still standing. People that hate her believe it all, people that don't hate her are still waiting for actual proof on 99% of it and the 1% that has stuck has already been aired so many times that it's no longer interesting, except of course to those who already hate her. And so on and so on, etc.
Quote:
Originally Posted by WRnative
Kasich has a lot of dirty linen that is unknown to most of the nation and even to Ohioans, as Ohio's journalism community is pathetically bad. Things will change when Democrats do opposition research.
How many women will vote for Kasich when they hear about his rape counselor gag law against discussing abortion options? Yet Kasich tried to pass himself off as a "moderate" on abortion rights and his defunding of Planned Parenthood women's health services (PP abortion services already were defunded).
Note in the article a similar action resulted in an increase in birth rates among low-income mothers, likely increasing the burden on Medicaid and other welfare services.
Hillary will eviscerate Kasich in a debate. And I'm not a fan of Hillary.
Agree with WRnative. Kasich has plenty of dirt, and he's susceptible to attack from both the left and the right. Not a great place to be squeezed in the middle like that.
to anyone who is fiscally conservative but socially liberal ? to anyone who supports Abortion rights or equal rights for the LGBT community, to any hardcore Trump supportor (because if Trump is robbed of the nomination why would you vote for the robber ?) and remember he lost several key swing states, namely Ohio and Florida.
The GOP will never understand there are various shades of red and moving toward purple might be the best option. That doesn't mean they have to capitulate on every issue (closing the border being one), but to continue to be thousand year old oak trees is to be left behind at every turn.
Kasich is the GOPs least offensive candidate. Unfortunately the GOP has dug themselves to a point where that doesn't work for their constituents anymore.
With this very warm winter in the Midwest, it's possible that the toxic algal bloom in Lake Erie will be monstrous. I can just see Hillary standing on an empty Lake Erie beach asking if the man most responsible for the catastrophe is worthy of being elected President.
No American who remotely considers the environment a priority will consider voting for Kasich.
Kasich signed a bill that permitted fracking in Ohio's small state parks and forests. You don't think Hillary would ask him why he wouldn't sign a bill allowing fracking in national parks? Kasich likely would try to ignore such an inquiry, as he did when pressed to the wall on his rape counselor gag rule.
As someone said, Electoral College is designed precisely to hinder a third party's ability to win the Presidency.
In 1992, Ross Perot spent nearly $100M (in today's dollars) to launch his independent Presidential run. His campaign was the strongest independent challenge since 1912. He got almost 20,000,000 votes and received about 19% of the popular vote, pulling votes from both Democrats and Republicans.
Do you know how many electoral votes he got? Zero. Zilch. Nada.
Mr. Trump won't do much better than Perot in a 3-way race. He is no dummy. He knows that he can't win against Hillary and GOP establishment candidate . . . . and he knows that if the House selects the President, they will select an establishment guy. The whole point, however, of mounting an expensive third party run is to spite the GOP establishment . . . . if he cannot achieve that objective, why would he do it? Again, he is no dummy.
As someone said, Electoral College is designed precisely to hinder a third party's ability to win the Presidency.
In 1992, Ross Perot spent nearly $100M (in today's dollars) to launch his independent Presidential run. His campaign was the strongest independent challenge since 1912. He got almost 20,000,000 votes and received about 19% of the popular vote, pulling votes from both Democrats and Republicans.
Do you know how many electoral votes he got? Zero. Zilch. Nada.
Mr. Trump won't do much better than Perot in a 3-way race. He is no dummy. He knows that he can't win against Hillary and GOP establishment candidate . . . . and he knows that if the House selects the President, they will select an establishment guy. The whole point, however, of mounting an expensive third party run is to spite the GOP establishment . . . . if he cannot achieve that objective, why would he do it? Again, he is no dummy.
Mick
You may be right Mick, but Perot was up against Bill and GHWB. Much different IMO than a 3rd party run against HRC and TBD ... I honestly think he would run not just to spite the GOP but to win.
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