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I am now of the belief that Mr. John Kasich, the governor from Ohio, will be our next President. Here's how it happens:
1. Trump falls short of 1,267 delegates
2. Trump threatens to run as an Independent if he's not chosen by the GOP, but the GOP says go ahead and do that, and they nominate Kasich
3. Trump runs as an Independent
4. Hillary wins a plurality in the electoral college, but fails to get to 270. Kasich wins Ohio and maybe 1-3 other states. The GOP keeps him off the ballot in many states, letting Trump win.
5. The election goes to the newly elected Congress and they vote for Kasich
Our newly elected President is sworn in with something like 25% of the popular vote.
I am now of the belief that Mr. John Kasich, the governor from Ohio, will be our next President. Here's how it happens:
1. Trump falls short of 1,267 delegates
2. Trump threatens to run as an Independent if he's not chosen by the GOP, but the GOP says go ahead and do that, and they nominate Kasich
3. Trump runs as an Independent
4. Hillary wins a plurality in the electoral college, but fails to get to 270. Kasich wins Ohio and maybe 1-3 other states. The GOP keeps him off the ballot in many states, letting Trump win.
5. The election goes to the newly elected Congress and they vote for Kasich
Our newly elected President is sworn in with something like 25% of the popular vote.
Kasich will never be nominated by the GOP with 13% of the popular vote in the GOP primaries.
But they would have to vote to repeal the 8 primary wins rule aka Rule 40(g) which both Cruz and Trump obviously have said they will vote against. Kasich won't even be eligible as it stands.
Kasich will never be nominated by the GOP with 13% of the popular vote in the GOP primaries.
Kasich is the only person left with positive favorability.
You could have a situation where Trump can get a majority, because he has ticked off too many. But too many Trump supporters that won't go with Cruz...then the convention is forced into a 3rd choice.
But they would have to vote to repeal the 8 primary wins rule aka Rule 40(g) which both Cruz and Trump obviously have said they will vote against. Kasich won't even be eligible as it stands.
No, they don't. That was a rule for 2012. The 2016 rules committee gets to make their own rules and they are under absolutely no obligation to keep that rule.
OP, interesting theory. Personally, I don't see them picking Kasich in a contested convention - he can barely get any vote now, why would they think he's going to start getting tons of votes if he's handed the nomination? I think if they aren't going to go with Trump or Cruz, they reinvent the wheel and go outside any of the 17 that started off this year.
Kasich is the only person left with positive favorability.
You could have a situation where Trump can get a majority, because he has ticked off too many. But too many Trump supporters that won't go with Cruz...then the convention is forced into a 3rd choice.
Kasich is too nice of a guy, the kind of "aw shucks" personality HRC would devour in a series of debates in a general election. Polls mean nothing ...
I am now of the belief that Mr. John Kasich, the governor from Ohio, will be our next President. Here's how it happens:
1. Trump falls short of 1,267 delegates
2. Trump threatens to run as an Independent if he's not chosen by the GOP, but the GOP says go ahead and do that, and they nominate Kasich
3. Trump runs as an Independent
4. Hillary wins a plurality in the electoral college, but fails to get to 270. Kasich wins Ohio and maybe 1-3 other states. The GOP keeps him off the ballot in many states, letting Trump win.
5. The election goes to the newly elected Congress and they vote for Kasich
Our newly elected President is sworn in with something like 25% of the popular vote.
I agree with #1, matter of fact I think it is likely. I can see #2 but not #3, 4, or 5.
I don't think, despite his threats, Trump will run independent, eventually he'll decide he's wasting his money. Why on Earth would the GOP leave Kasich off any state ballots? If Kasich is the nominee he is the most likely to win. If not him, then Hillary.
I would not be surprised to see the GOP swallow their bitter pill and go with Cruz. Trump will only be the nominee if he gets 1,237 delegates.
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No, they don't. That was a rule for 2012. The 2016 rules committee gets to make their own rules and they are under absolutely no obligation to keep that rule.
OP, interesting theory. Personally, I don't see them picking Kasich in a contested convention - he can barely get any vote now, why would they think he's going to start getting tons of votes if he's handed the nomination? I think if they aren't going to go with Trump or Cruz, they reinvent the wheel and go outside any of the 17 that started off this year.
Because he is the ONLY GOP candidate that beats Hillary in every national poll and is ahead of her in EVERY SINGLE SWING STATE.
If Trump and Cruz can't get a majority and they are forced to go to a third person on later ballots, then why not go with the only GOP candidate with a net positive favorability rating?
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