Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
You're the one who brought up the whole idea of "automatic", in your post #35. No one else in this thread implied or suggested it. There is no "automatic", that idea exists solely in your mind.
Quote:
I said "delegates," unqualified by an adjective.
Here's the thing: the adjective matters. Bernie is losing hugely when it comes to pledged delegates, who are the only ones who count.
You're the one who brought up the whole idea of "automatic", in your post #35. No one else in this thread implied or suggested it. There is no "automatic", that idea exists solely in your mind.
And you don't want to mention that I used it for the same context NYT uses it: nomination.
Quote:
Originally Posted by biscuitmom
Here's the thing: the adjective matters. Bernie is losing hugely when it comes to pledged delegates, who are the only ones who count.
Adjective doesn't matter when describing that even when the super delegates are added to the pledged ones, HRC still will not meet the threshold number "2,383 to win nomination" [-NYT]* (which is there whether you want to acknowledge it or not).
Whatever happens at the convention after she doesn't get to that number is going to be the fun part.
In that case, Hillary is a little bit over 600 delegates away right now. There are that many delegates just in the rest of April . I'm not saying she gets all them, but even with a 50/50 split, she's only about 300 away with about 1000 more delegates left in May and June. Highly unlikely she won't get what she needs to win on the first ballot, Bernie Bros fantasies notwithstanding.
What the hell does Bernie Bros have to do with your argument with a far right Trumper??
Regardless, when it comes down to it, whoever winds up with the most pledged delegates will wind up winning the nomination. With that being said Clinton will likely wind up with a 205-215 Pledged Delegate advantage as it heads into the NY Primary (range is due to some sources having slightly different counts, + the upcoming Colorado Conventions which could shift things slightly)
That is a very steep hurdle for Sanders to climb, but not an impssoble one. If he can manage an upset in NY, it could very well be a game changer and give him momentumto start racking up solid margins including in California. If not, his long shot bid, becomes that much tougher.
Adjective doesn't matter when I say that even when the super delegates are added to the pledged ones, HRC still won't meet the threshold number for nomination, which is there whether you want to acknowledge it or not.
Desperate much? Keep on dreaming about imaginary thresholds and super delegates. Clinton will win handily without either.
Whatever happens at the convention after she doesn't get to that number is going to be the fun part.
It's not so much 'fun' as it will be simple: As emm74 as noted numerous times, if she leads maintains a significant lead both in terms of pledge delegates and the popular vote, which is highly probable, the super delegates who already support her have no reason whatsoever to switch their support.
After all the primaries and caucuses are finished she'll probably lead by at least 200 delegates and at least 2 million votes. In other words she's the overwhelming favorite to be the nominee. Period. It's that simple.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255
That is a very steep hurdle for Sanders to climb, but not an impssoble one. If he can manage an upset in NY, it could very well be a game changer and give him momentumto start racking up solid margins including in California. If not, his long shot bid, becomes that much tougher.
April 26. She's favored to win all five primaries, including PA which has the most delegates. Even if he narrowly wins NY, which is a big 'if', it won't matter. If she wins PA, esp by a significant margin it's over even if he manages to narrowly win CA.
It's not so much 'fun' as it will be simple: As emm74 as noted numerous times, if she leads maintains a significant lead both in terms of pledge delegates and the popular vote, which is highly probable, the super delegates who already support her have no reason whatsoever to switch their support.
After all the primaries and caucuses are finished she'll probably lead by at least 200 delegates and at least 2 million votes. In other words she's the overwhelming favorite to be the nominee. Period. It's that simple.
April 26. She's favored to win all five primaries, including PA which has the most delegates. Even if he narrowly wins NY, which is a big 'if', it won't matter. With wins PA by a significant margin it's over, even if he manages to narrowly win CA.
PA has closed up a bit with recent polls as well. However, my main point was a win in NY could certainly have huge momentum which wwould help him greatly with the April 26th contests and into California. Now of course I don't expect him to win NY, but in the unlikely event that it does occur the dynamics of the race completely change. Not that I'm saying he would be favored at that point either (she would still have a large pledged delegate advantage), but it certainly could have a huge impact on the upcoming states/
PA has closed up a bit with recent polls as well. However, my main point was a win in NY could certainly have huge momentum which wwould help him greatly with the April 26th contests and into California. Now of course I don't expect him to win NY, but in the unlikely event that it does occur the dynamics of the race completely change. Not that I'm saying he would be favored at that point either (she would still have a large pledged delegate advantage), but it certainly could have a huge impact on the upcoming states/
Except there's little evidence 'momentum' is actually real. It just happens the last several states have been small, homogeneous, mostly caucus states that typically favor Sanders. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...momentum/?_r=0
We do know this: Sanders does well in less populous, ethnically homogeneous states while Clinton does well in more populous, ethnically diverse states. Exceptions to this trend are minimal. Most of the next 6 states are relatively populous and diverse. If Sanders manages to buck the trend that will be meaningful, but if not his 'momentum' is illusory.
Last edited by PanapolicRiddle; 04-10-2016 at 12:51 AM..
Dude I knew Sanders would take Cali and if he takes NY think he might win all the Primaries to the end. This will be HUGE#!!
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Desperate much? Keep on dreaming about imaginary thresholds and super delegates. Clinton will win handily without either.