The Blue Wave Just Evaporated

[mrpeatie]

Originally Posted by Smash255

While the party out of power typically picks up seats, not sure where you get 40 as typical. Over the last 50 years, only twice has the party out of power picked up more than 40 (1994 and 2010), and only 2 other times have they picked up over 30 (1974 and 2006)

Good point. 1974 was obviously a Watergate year so can be pushed aside. But the last six mid terms have produced 4 wave elections- 1994, 2006, 2010 and 2104 that went against the party in power. That is the trend. The two elections in that span that bucked the trend tend to be exceptions that proved the rule- 1998 being an anti-impeachment backlash and 2002 being a reaction to 9/11. The other 4 were all seen as rebukes of the most recent Presidential elections.


Another trend has been regional realignments- particularly in 1994 (Rs finally won the down ballot races in the South), 2006 (New England went Dem), and 2014 (rural areas, exurbs swung completely R.) This years threshold will really be how Democrats fair in R districts that were carried or closely contested by Clinton.

[Smash255]

Originally Posted by mrpeatie

Good point. 1974 was obviously a Watergate year so can be pushed aside. But the last six mid terms have produced 4 wave elections- 1994, 2006, 2010 and 2104 that went against the party in power. That is the trend. The two elections in that span that bucked the trend tend to be exceptions that proved the rule- 1998 being an anti-impeachment backlash and 2002 being a reaction to 9/11. The other 4 were all seen as rebukes of the most recent Presidential elections.


Another trend has been regional realignments- particularly in 1994 (Rs finally won the down ballot races in the South), 2006 (New England went Dem), and 2014 (rural areas, exurbs swung completely R.) This years threshold will really be how Democrats fair in R districts that were carried or closely contested by Clinton.

My main point was while there is a trend for the party to be out of power to pick up seats, suggesting 40 is typical is just false. If the Democrats pick up 40, it will certainly be because of more than just the party out of power picking up seats.

As far as this year goes, old school Republican suburban (especially well educated middle to upper middle class) districts are going to be key. The GOP holds quite a few of these that swung hard against Trump in 2016. These have generally been reliably Republican down ballot, and if it stays that way the GOP should be in good shape and retaining the Majority. However, if it shifts down ballot come closer to matching the shifts at the top of the ballot, the Democrats likely will take over the House.

[Atlwarrior]

If democrats get rid of Nancy, they still have a shot.