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I think Republicans will be fine in the long term- politics tends to be both cyclical and reactionary. And Trumps agenda is will not be the R agenda after he leaves. The House has basically flipped with each of the last four Presidents- 3 in the first term and W in 06 mainly because 9/11 change politics for the first half of his tenure.
But I think the big issues for many of these Rs is that some have districts trending away from them and others realize that being on the ticket with Trump in certain districts will be a giant drain. There is also another variation on each- so many of these reps serve for not only years but decades- and if you are in your sixties and eligible for a plush retirement, fighting it out with both your opponent and your party is not very enticing.
I think Republicans will be fine in the long term- politics tends to be both cyclical and reactionary. And Trumps agenda is will not be the R agenda after he leaves.
The Pubs have made a big gamble and it's now coming back to bite them.
Wedding themselves to the reactionary, extreme religious right gained them in the short term, but it's a demographic that's shrinking and in all likelihood won't see any kind of future growth. As they die off, their votes will be replaced by a generation that is rejecting religion and social conservatism.
The Special Election for California 25th district formerly held by Democratic Rep Katie Hill has been set for March 3rd. If any candidate receives over 50% of the vote they are elected, if no candidate receives over 50% of the vote, the top two, regardless of party move on to a runoff to be held on May 12th.
Currently there are four Senators not seeking re-election to their Senate seats, three are Republican and one Democrat
Republicans not Seeking Re-election to the Senate
1. KS- Pat Roberts- Retiring
Trump 56.2-35.7, Romney 59.6-38.0
3. WY- Mike Enzi- Retiring
Trump 68.2, Clinton 21.9 Romney 68.6-Obama 27.8
Democrats not seeking re-election to the Senate
1. NM- Tom Udall-Retiring
Clinton 48.3-40.0, Obama 53.0-42.8
Currently, there are twenty eight members of the House who have announced they will not seek re-election,
twenty are Republican and eight are Democrats
19. UT-01 Rob Bishop-Retiring
Trump 49.7-22.4, Romney 77.4-20.4
20. WI-05 Jim Sensenbrenner- Retiring
Trump 57.4-37.3, Romney 61.3-37.7
Democrats not seeking re-election to the House
1. CA- 53 Susan Davis- Retiring
Clinton 64.5-29.6, Obama 61.4-36.4
2. HI-2-Tulsi Gabbard-Running for President
Clinton 61.4-29.6, Obama 71.4-26.7
3. IA-2 Dave Loebsack- Retiring
Trump 49.1-45.0, Obama 55.8-42.7
4. IN-1 Pete Visclosky-Retiring
Clinton 54.1-41.5, Obama 61.2-37.4
5. MA-4 Joe Kennedy III-Running For Senate
Clinton 59.2-35.0, Obama 57.2-41.3
6. NM-3 Ben Ray Lujan- Running for Senate
Clinton 51.8-36.7, Obama 57.5-38.7
7. NY-15 Jose Serrano-Retiring
Clinton 93.8-4.9, Obama 96.7-3.0
8. NY-17 Nita Lowey- Retiring
Clinton 58.6-38.4, Obama 57.1-41.8
Currently there will be one Special Election in the Senate. This is in a Republican held seat
1. Georgia- Johnny Isakson- resigning Dec 31 Appointed Senator unknown- Special Election Date- General Election 2020
Trump 50.4-45.4, Romney 53.2-45.4
Currently there will be four Special Elections in the House, two seats were Republican and open due to resignation, two were Democratic, one open due to a death, the other due to a resignation
Special Elections in seats that Republicans held
1. NY-27 Chris Collins- Resigned October 1st, Special Election TBD
Trump 59.7-35.2, Romney 55.3-42.9
2. WI-7 Sean Duffy- Resigned September 23rd- Special Election May 12th
Trump 57.7-37.3, Romney 50.9-47.8
Special Elections in seats that Democrats held
1. CA-25 Katie Hill- Resigned November 3rd- Special Election March 3rd, Runoff May 12th if no one reaches 50%
Clinton 50.3-43.6, Romney 497.7-47.9
2. MD-7 Elijah Cummings- Passed Away, Special Election April 28th
Clinton 75.8-20.2, Obama 76.2-22.3
Special Election Results. There have been three Special Election so far, all in a Republican districts and
all three were held by the GOP
1. PA-12 Tom Marino- resigned January 23rd- Special Election Held May 21st 2019- Republican Fred Keller Defeated Democrat Marc Friedenberg 68.1-31.9 this was a Republican Hold
Trump 66.1-29.7, Romney 61.5-36.8
2. NC-03 Walter B Jones Jr- Passed Away Special Election Held September 10th, Republican Greg Murphy defeated Democrat Allen Thomas 61.7-37.5. This was a Republican Hold
Trump 60.5-36.9, Romney 58.4-40.6
3. NC-09 Vacant formerly Robert Pittinger, Special Election Held September 10th, Republican Dan Bishop defeated Democrat Dan McCready 50.7-48.7. This was a Republican Hold
Trump 54.4-42.8, Romney 55.4-43.8
Democratic Congressman Denny Heck of Washington's 10th district has stated he will not seek re-election. Heck was first elected in 2012 and is serving in his 4th term. The district primarily covers the Olympia Washington metro area and is pretty solidly Democratic.
Currently there are four Senators not seeking re-election to their Senate seats, three are Republican and one Democrat
Republicans not Seeking Re-election to the Senate
1. KS- Pat Roberts- Retiring
Trump 56.2-35.7, Romney 59.6-38.0
3. WY- Mike Enzi- Retiring
Trump 68.2, Clinton 21.9 Romney 68.6-Obama 27.8
Democrats not seeking re-election to the Senate
1. NM- Tom Udall-Retiring
Clinton 48.3-40.0, Obama 53.0-42.8
Currently, there are twenty nine members of the House who have announced they will not seek re-election,
twenty are Republican and nine are Democrats
19. UT-01 Rob Bishop-Retiring
Trump 49.7-22.4, Romney 77.4-20.4
20. WI-05 Jim Sensenbrenner- Retiring
Trump 57.4-37.3, Romney 61.3-37.7
Democrats not seeking re-election to the House
1. CA- 53 Susan Davis- Retiring
Clinton 64.5-29.6, Obama 61.4-36.4
2. HI-2-Tulsi Gabbard-Running for President
Clinton 61.4-29.6, Obama 71.4-26.7
3. IA-2 Dave Loebsack- Retiring
Trump 49.1-45.0, Obama 55.8-42.7
4. IN-1 Pete Visclosky-Retiring
Clinton 54.1-41.5, Obama 61.2-37.4
5. MA-4 Joe Kennedy III-Running For Senate
Clinton 59.2-35.0, Obama 57.2-41.3
6. NM-3 Ben Ray Lujan- Running for Senate
Clinton 51.8-36.7, Obama 57.5-38.7
7. NY-15 Jose Serrano-Retiring
Clinton 93.8-4.9, Obama 96.7-3.0
8. NY-17 Nita Lowey- Retiring
Clinton 58.6-38.4, Obama 57.1-41.8
9. WA-10 Denny Heck- Retiring
Clinton 51.3-39.9, Obama 56.3-41.1
Currently there will be one Special Election in the Senate. This is in a Republican held seat
1. Georgia- Johnny Isakson- resigning Dec 31 Appointed Senator unknown- Special Election Date- General Election 2020
Trump 50.4-45.4, Romney 53.2-45.4
Currently there will be four Special Elections in the House, two seats were Republican and open due to resignation, two were Democratic, one open due to a death, the other due to a resignation
Special Elections in seats that Republicans held
1. NY-27 Chris Collins- Resigned October 1st, Special Election TBD
Trump 59.7-35.2, Romney 55.3-42.9
2. WI-7 Sean Duffy- Resigned September 23rd- Special Election May 12th
Trump 57.7-37.3, Romney 50.9-47.8
Special Elections in seats that Democrats held
1. CA-25 Katie Hill- Resigned November 3rd- Special Election March 3rd, Runoff May 12th if no one reaches 50%
Clinton 50.3-43.6, Romney 497.7-47.9
2. MD-7 Elijah Cummings- Passed Away, Special Election April 28th
Clinton 75.8-20.2, Obama 76.2-22.3
Special Election Results. There have been three Special Election so far, all in a Republican districts and
all three were held by the GOP
1. PA-12 Tom Marino- resigned January 23rd- Special Election Held May 21st 2019- Republican Fred Keller Defeated Democrat Marc Friedenberg 68.1-31.9 this was a Republican Hold
Trump 66.1-29.7, Romney 61.5-36.8
2. NC-03 Walter B Jones Jr- Passed Away Special Election Held September 10th, Republican Greg Murphy defeated Democrat Allen Thomas 61.7-37.5. This was a Republican Hold
Trump 60.5-36.9, Romney 58.4-40.6
3. NC-09 Vacant formerly Robert Pittinger, Special Election Held September 10th, Republican Dan Bishop defeated Democrat Dan McCready 50.7-48.7. This was a Republican Hold
Trump 54.4-42.8, Romney 55.4-43.8
Republican Duncan Hunter of California's 50th district has announced he will be resigning after the Holidays following his guilty plea to Misuse of Campaign funds. Hunter was facing a slew of corruption charges as both him and his wife were indicted last year. Hunter is in his 6th term after first being elected in 2008 when he won and took over the seat being vacated by his father who held it for 28 years prior to his run for the GOP Presidential nomination in 2008. The seat primarily covers suburban portions of northern San Diego County and a small portion of Riverside County. The seat is the most Republican in Southern California and should be held by the GOP following his departure. No date has been set yet for the Special Election.
Republican Congressman Dan Graves of Georgia's 14th district has announced he will not seek re-election. Graves was first elected in a Special Election in 2010 and is currently serving in his 5th Term (4th full). The 14th district is mostly rural covering the Northwest corner of Georgia and a sliver of the further out Atlanta exurbs. The district is very heavily Republican and is ultra safe.
Republican Congressman George Holding of North Carolina's 2nd district has announced he will not seek re-election following redistricting. Holding was first elected in 2012 and serving in his 4th term. Holding initially ran for the 13th district in 2012, but following another redistricting battle ran in the 2nd in 2016 against fellow Republican Renee Elmers and defeated her in a Primary. Following another Court battle, the State Court ruled the current Congressional map was a partisan gerrymander. The GOP Assembly redrew the map and the map was approved by the Courts. The previous 2nd district generally was drawn to pick off some of the more Republican suburbs of Raleigh and combine in with some rural areas further outside the city to make it more Republican. The new district is generally centered more around Raleigh covering it and its inner suburbs. All of the 2nd is now in Wake County. The new seat is safe Democratic.
Currently there are four Senators not seeking re-election to their Senate seats, three are Republican and one Democrat
Republicans not Seeking Re-election to the Senate
1. KS- Pat Roberts- Retiring
Trump 56.2-35.7, Romney 59.6-38.0
3. WY- Mike Enzi- Retiring
Trump 68.2, Clinton 21.9 Romney 68.6-Obama 27.8
Democrats not seeking re-election to the Senate
1. NM- Tom Udall-Retiring
Clinton 48.3-40.0, Obama 53.0-42.8
Currently, there are thirty one members of the House who have announced they will not seek re-election,
twenty-two are Republican and nine are Democrats
21. UT-01 Rob Bishop-Retiring
Trump 49.7-22.4, Romney 77.4-20.4
22. WI-05 Jim Sensenbrenner- Retiring
Trump 57.4-37.3, Romney 61.3-37.7
*North Carolina maps were re-drawn by the Assembly after the previous maps were thrown out by the State Court
Democrats not seeking re-election to the House
1. CA- 53 Susan Davis- Retiring
Clinton 64.5-29.6, Obama 61.4-36.4
2. HI-2-Tulsi Gabbard-Running for President
Clinton 61.4-29.6, Obama 71.4-26.7
3. IA-2 Dave Loebsack- Retiring
Trump 49.1-45.0, Obama 55.8-42.7
4. IN-1 Pete Visclosky-Retiring
Clinton 54.1-41.5, Obama 61.2-37.4
5. MA-4 Joe Kennedy III-Running For Senate
Clinton 59.2-35.0, Obama 57.2-41.3
6. NM-3 Ben Ray Lujan- Running for Senate
Clinton 51.8-36.7, Obama 57.5-38.7
7. NY-15 Jose Serrano-Retiring
Clinton 93.8-4.9, Obama 96.7-3.0
8. NY-17 Nita Lowey- Retiring
Clinton 58.6-38.4, Obama 57.1-41.8
9. WA-10 Denny Heck- Retiring
Clinton 51.3-39.9, Obama 56.3-41.1
Currently there will be one Special Election in the Senate. This is in a Republican held seat
1. Georgia- Johnny Isakson- resigning Dec 31 Appointed Senator unknown- Special Election Date- General Election 2020
Trump 50.4-45.4, Romney 53.2-45.4
Currently there will be five Special Elections in the House, three seats were Republican and open due to resignation, two were Democratic, one open due to a death, the other due to a resignation
Special Elections in seats that Republicans held
1. CA-50 Duncan Hunter- Resigning after Holidays- Special Election to be announced
Trump 54.6-39.6, Romney 60.4-37.6
2. NY-27 Chris Collins- Resigned October 1st, Special Election TBD
Trump 59.7-35.2, Romney 55.3-42.9
3. WI-7 Sean Duffy- Resigned September 23rd- Special Election May 12th
Trump 57.7-37.3, Romney 50.9-47.8
Special Elections in seats that Democrats held
1. CA-25 Katie Hill- Resigned November 3rd- Special Election March 3rd, Runoff May 12th if no one reaches 50%
Clinton 50.3-43.6, Romney 497.7-47.9
2. MD-7 Elijah Cummings- Passed Away, Special Election April 28th
Clinton 75.8-20.2, Obama 76.2-22.3
Special Election Results. There have been three Special Election so far, all in a Republican districts and
all three were held by the GOP
1. PA-12 Tom Marino- resigned January 23rd- Special Election Held May 21st 2019- Republican Fred Keller Defeated Democrat Marc Friedenberg 68.1-31.9 this was a Republican Hold
Trump 66.1-29.7, Romney 61.5-36.8
2. NC-03 Walter B Jones Jr- Passed Away Special Election Held September 10th, Republican Greg Murphy defeated Democrat Allen Thomas 61.7-37.5. This was a Republican Hold
Trump 60.5-36.9, Romney 58.4-40.6
3. NC-09 Vacant formerly Robert Pittinger, Special Election Held September 10th, Republican Dan Bishop defeated Democrat Dan McCready 50.7-48.7. This was a Republican Hold
Trump 54.4-42.8, Romney 55.4-43.8
I have removed the Georgia Special Senate election from this list as soon to be appointed Republican Kelly Loeffler has indicated she will run in the Special (I'm trying to keep this thread primarily focused on the truly open seats so this one and McSally's in Arizona are kept off for now)
Republican Congressman Ted Yoho of Florida's 3rd district has announced he will not seek re-election. Yoho was first elected in 2012 and serving in his 4th term after knocking off former Republican Congressman Cliff Steams in a 2012 Primary challenge. The district generally covers parts of northeastern Florida around Gainesville and portions of the Jacksonville suburbs. The district is fairly Republican.
Republican Congressman Mark Walker of North Carolina's 6th district has announced he will not seek re-election following redistricting. Walker was first elected in 2014 and serving in his 3rd term. Following the state court throwing out the Congressional districts the GOP State Legislature drew another map. The previous map had the Greensboro and Winston-Salem areas split within three districts, adding large rural Republican chunks to a Democratic leaning region. The 6th was one of those districts. Now the 6th is fairly compact and primarily covers the Greensboro and Winston-Salem region in one district. The district is a pretty safe Democratic pickup.
Republican Congressman Mark Meadows of North Carolina's 11th district has announced he will not seek re-election. Meadows was first elected in 2012 and is serving in his 4th term. The 11th district did undergo some changes with redistricting as well. The 11th district generally covers the western part of the state. Asheville is now back fully in the district, after half of it was removed in order to make it virtually impossible for then Democratic Congressman Heath Shuler to hold on to the district. Putting liberal Asheville back fully into the district does make it a bit more Democratic, however the district is still quite Republican and should be safe for the GOP to hold.
Currently there are four Senators not seeking re-election to their Senate seats, three are Republican and one Democrat
Republicans not Seeking Re-election to the Senate
1. KS- Pat Roberts- Retiring
Trump 56.2-35.7, Romney 59.6-38.0
3. WY- Mike Enzi- Retiring
Trump 68.2, Clinton 21.9 Romney 68.6-Obama 27.8
Democrats not seeking re-election to the Senate
1. NM- Tom Udall-Retiring
Clinton 48.3-40.0, Obama 53.0-42.8
Currently, there are thirty four members of the House who have announced they will not seek re-election, twenty-five are Republican and nine are Democrats
24. UT-01 Rob Bishop-Retiring
Trump 49.7-22.4, Romney 77.4-20.4
25. WI-05 Jim Sensenbrenner- Retiring
Trump 57.4-37.3, Romney 61.3-37.7
*North Carolina maps were re-drawn by the Assembly after the previous maps were thrown out by the State Court
Democrats not seeking re-election to the House
1. CA- 53 Susan Davis- Retiring
Clinton 64.5-29.6, Obama 61.4-36.4
2. HI-2-Tulsi Gabbard-Running for President
Clinton 61.4-29.6, Obama 71.4-26.7
3. IA-2 Dave Loebsack- Retiring
Trump 49.1-45.0, Obama 55.8-42.7
4. IN-1 Pete Visclosky-Retiring
Clinton 54.1-41.5, Obama 61.2-37.4
5. MA-4 Joe Kennedy III-Running For Senate
Clinton 59.2-35.0, Obama 57.2-41.3
6. NM-3 Ben Ray Lujan- Running for Senate
Clinton 51.8-36.7, Obama 57.5-38.7
7. NY-15 Jose Serrano-Retiring
Clinton 93.8-4.9, Obama 96.7-3.0
8. NY-17 Nita Lowey- Retiring
Clinton 58.6-38.4, Obama 57.1-41.8
9. WA-10 Denny Heck- Retiring
Clinton 51.3-39.9, Obama 56.3-41.1
Currently there will be five Special Elections in the House, three seats were Republican and open due to resignation, two were Democratic, one open due to a death, the other due to a resignation
Special Elections in seats that Republicans held
1. CA-50 Duncan Hunter- Resigning after Holidays- Special Election to be announced
Trump 54.6-39.6, Romney 60.4-37.6
2. NY-27 Chris Collins- Resigned October 1st, Special Election TBD
Trump 59.7-35.2, Romney 55.3-42.9
3. WI-7 Sean Duffy- Resigned September 23rd- Special Election May 12th
Trump 57.7-37.3, Romney 50.9-47.8
Special Elections in seats that Democrats held
1. CA-25 Katie Hill- Resigned November 3rd- Special Election March 3rd, Runoff May 12th if no one reaches 50%
Clinton 50.3-43.6, Romney 497.7-47.9
2. MD-7 Elijah Cummings- Passed Away, Special Election April 28th
Clinton 75.8-20.2, Obama 76.2-22.3
Special Election Results. There have been three Special Election so far, all in a Republican districts and
all three were held by the GOP
1. PA-12 Tom Marino- resigned January 23rd- Special Election Held May 21st 2019- Republican Fred Keller Defeated Democrat Marc Friedenberg 68.1-31.9 this was a Republican Hold
Trump 66.1-29.7, Romney 61.5-36.8
2. NC-03 Walter B Jones Jr- Passed Away Special Election Held September 10th, Republican Greg Murphy defeated Democrat Allen Thomas 61.7-37.5. This was a Republican Hold
Trump 60.5-36.9, Romney 58.4-40.6
3. NC-09 Vacant formerly Robert Pittinger, Special Election Held September 10th, Republican Dan Bishop defeated Democrat Dan McCready 50.7-48.7. This was a Republican Hold
Trump 54.4-42.8, Romney 55.4-43.8
Republican Congressman Phil Roe of Tennessee's 1st district has announced he will not see re-election. Roe is in his 6th term and was first elected in 2008. The 1st district of Tennessee generally covers the northeastern portion of the state. This is one of the most Republican districts in the country and is super safe for the GOP.
Currently there are four Senators not seeking re-election to their Senate seats, three are Republican and one Democrat
Republicans not Seeking Re-election to the Senate
1. KS- Pat Roberts- Retiring
Trump 56.2-35.7, Romney 59.6-38.0
3. WY- Mike Enzi- Retiring
Trump 68.2, Clinton 21.9 Romney 68.6-Obama 27.8
Democrats not seeking re-election to the Senate
1. NM- Tom Udall-Retiring
Clinton 48.3-40.0, Obama 53.0-42.8
Currently, there are thirty five members of the House who have announced they will not seek re-election, twenty six are Republican and nine are Democrats
25. UT-01 Rob Bishop-Retiring
Trump 49.7-22.4, Romney 77.4-20.4
26. WI-05 Jim Sensenbrenner- Retiring
Trump 57.4-37.3, Romney 61.3-37.7
*North Carolina maps were re-drawn by the Assembly after the previous maps were thrown out by the State Court
Democrats not seeking re-election to the House
1. CA- 53 Susan Davis- Retiring
Clinton 64.5-29.6, Obama 61.4-36.4
2. HI-2-Tulsi Gabbard-Running for President
Clinton 61.4-29.6, Obama 71.4-26.7
3. IA-2 Dave Loebsack- Retiring
Trump 49.1-45.0, Obama 55.8-42.7
4. IN-1 Pete Visclosky-Retiring
Clinton 54.1-41.5, Obama 61.2-37.4
5. MA-4 Joe Kennedy III-Running For Senate
Clinton 59.2-35.0, Obama 57.2-41.3
6. NM-3 Ben Ray Lujan- Running for Senate
Clinton 51.8-36.7, Obama 57.5-38.7
7. NY-15 Jose Serrano-Retiring
Clinton 93.8-4.9, Obama 96.7-3.0
8. NY-17 Nita Lowey- Retiring
Clinton 58.6-38.4, Obama 57.1-41.8
9. WA-10 Denny Heck- Retiring
Clinton 51.3-39.9, Obama 56.3-41.1
Currently there will be five Special Elections in the House, three seats were Republican and open due to resignation, two were Democratic, one open due to a death, the other due to a resignation
Special Elections in seats that Republicans held
1. CA-50 Duncan Hunter- Resigning after Holidays- Special Election to be announced
Trump 54.6-39.6, Romney 60.4-37.6
2. NY-27 Chris Collins- Resigned October 1st, Special Election TBD
Trump 59.7-35.2, Romney 55.3-42.9
3. WI-7 Sean Duffy- Resigned September 23rd- Special Election May 12th
Trump 57.7-37.3, Romney 50.9-47.8
Special Elections in seats that Democrats held
1. CA-25 Katie Hill- Resigned November 3rd- Special Election March 3rd, Runoff May 12th if no one reaches 50%
Clinton 50.3-43.6, Romney 497.7-47.9
2. MD-7 Elijah Cummings- Passed Away, Special Election April 28th
Clinton 75.8-20.2, Obama 76.2-22.3
Special Election Results. There have been three Special Election so far, all in a Republican districts and
all three were held by the GOP
1. PA-12 Tom Marino- resigned January 23rd- Special Election Held May 21st 2019- Republican Fred Keller Defeated Democrat Marc Friedenberg 68.1-31.9 this was a Republican Hold
Trump 66.1-29.7, Romney 61.5-36.8
2. NC-03 Walter B Jones Jr- Passed Away Special Election Held September 10th, Republican Greg Murphy defeated Democrat Allen Thomas 61.7-37.5. This was a Republican Hold
Trump 60.5-36.9, Romney 58.4-40.6
3. NC-09 Vacant formerly Robert Pittinger, Special Election Held September 10th, Republican Dan Bishop defeated Democrat Dan McCready 50.7-48.7. This was a Republican Hold
Trump 54.4-42.8, Romney 55.4-43.8
It's good to know who to target for elimination when I get begging letters.
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