Biden only leads by ONE point and TWO points in the most recent Michigan polls. Let's hope Democrats don't replace him! (thought, represent)
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
You have to know that many hated Hilary including many Democrats. I didn’t even vote for her because I live in a blue state. So my vote wasn’t necessary. Biden has a much more favorable rating. And with the current crisis in our country we need a change.
I agree, it will be an even lower voter turnout than 2016.
yes, among conservatives. Liberal and the important centrists are mobilized to get rid of the disaster, make-up stained collar, tie askew, actor in the White House.
Too early right now. Wayy too many variables can change before election. Tune back in later, or you'll wear yourself out with all the little non-events causing spikes both ways here and there.
yes, among conservatives. Liberal and the important centrists are mobilized to get rid of the disaster, make-up stained collar, tie askew, actor in the White House.
Lower voter turnout always favors Republicans.
We hear it in every election cycle.
And don't forget, those protesters are only a very small percentage of the population, completely insignificant in an election.
I would look at who has been offended the most, Trump supporters or Trump haters? Trump supporters, and they will be the most motivated to vote.
Because Wisconsin is an example of Trump winning a state after being 6.5 down, meaning he only needs to be within 6.5 to win any state.
Now Michigan is down to 8.0, so Trump is moving closer to 6.5, and with many months still remaining....
Just flat out wrong.
Here are some states Trump lost while being within 6.5 points:
Colorado: Clinton +2
Maine: Clinton +2
Minnesota: Clinton +3
Nevada: Even
New Hampshire: Clinton +3
New Mexico: Clinton +3
Virginia: Clinton +5
Fun fact, one of the last polls in Wisconsin was Clinton +1
Point is, you can't use just one instance of polls being off as your reasoning why all polls forever are wrong. Historically, even national polls have nailed the winner every time since 1980 except for 2016.
I wonder if in 2024 when Trump runs to reclaim the presidency if we'll be hearing about "remember 2016?" any time there's a discussion of polls.
That's like saying Eli Manning is a greater quarterback than Tom Brady because Manning bested the Patriots (twice). Things went the wrong way for the Patriots in those Super Bowls. And there was some luck on Trump's side, I mean the Giants' side.
^ I'm referring to the RealClearPolitics Wisconsin average deficit, it was 6.5 just before the 2016 election.
Whereas you were referring to a singular poll when you say "one of the last last polls in Wisconsin was Clinton +1".
And I never said Trump will win every every state that he trails by 6.5 in.....I said Wisconsin proves its possible for Trump to win a state after trailing by 6.5 in the polls.
I'm just stating the obvious.....clearly a lead of 6.5 does not guarantee you'll win the state, whether its Wisconsin, Michigan or any other state.
And I never said Trump will win every every state that he trails by 6.5 in.....I said Wisconsin proves its possible for Trump to win a state after trailing by 6.5 in the polls.
I'm just stating the obvious.....clearly a lead of 6.5 does not guarantee you'll win the state, whether its Wisconsin, Michigan or any other state.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MAGAalot
meaning he only needs to be within 6.5 to win any state.
Exactly.
Anyway, I suppose if you'd rather need to successfully execute 6 Hail Mary passes to win as opposed to just run out the clock - I suppose, believe what you want.
I'm not declaring Biden the winner based on polls in June. What I'm saying is that the notion that because one instance of polls were wrong doesn't mean all polls are wrong. Maybe Trump was down by 6.5 and won by 0.1. Or maybe he loses by 13 points.
Even if Biden was up by 20 points nationally and 8 points in every battleground state, the election isn't over until the votes are counted. There is always a shot.
In 2016, Robert Cahaly was the only pollster to show Donald Trump winning the state of Michigan. His final survey in the Wolverine State projected the Republican nominee beating Hillary Clinton by two percentage points. The final margin was just 0.3% -- an outcome that almost no one except Cahaly saw coming.
Cahaly’s polls in 2016 also showed Donald Trump winning Pennsylvania – again, he was nearly alone in projecting Trump’s narrow victory there – and thus taking the White House. Cahaly’s success continued in 2018, most conspicuously in Florida. He was one of the few pollsters whose data showed Ron DeSantis beating Andrew Gillum in the Florida gubernatorial race and Rick Scott besting incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson in the Senate race. Cahaly’s firm, the Trafalgar Group, has emerged from the last two political cycles as one of the most accurate polling operations in America.
So it’s notable that Cahaly has just released his first poll of the 2020 cycle, a survey of likely voters in Michigan showing Trump trailing Joe Biden by a single point, 46%-45%.
Last week Michigan-based pollster EPIC-MRA garnered national attention for its survey showing Biden leading by a whopping 16 points, while another survey by the firm TIPP (which has never polled the state before) showed Biden with a 13-point lead. Finally, a poll by the Democratic firm Change Research, published in conjunction with CNBC, showed Biden with just a two-point lead, 47%-45%.
I've argued that polls underrate Trump, and that is why Biden leading by 1 point is HUGE, because it means Trump is winning.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MAGAalot
November 7th 2016, Wisconsin = Hillary Clinton +6.5
See, we don't need Trump to lead the polls, we just need him close.
See, you can't help yourself. Your entire argument against 2020 polling has been that 2016 was incorrect, but you literally started this thread bragging about 2020 polling simply because it showed you what you wanted (and ironically, still showed Trump behind).
You don't seem to know what you're arguing other than that you have very selective views on polling.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
