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I firmly believe the polls will always under-represent Trump's actual support. Given the reality of Trump Derangement Syndrome, which afflicts even a couple of my best friends, I wouldn't think of wearing a MAGA hat, putting a Trump sign in my yard or pasting a Trump bumper sticker on my car - although I will certainly vote for The Donald once again.
Given the state of the country these days, I think I'd be slightly paranoid even about answering an anonymous poll. I'd be thinking "Who is REALLY asking this question, who is REALLY monitoring these responses, what are going to be the consequences if I answer honestly?" Slightly paranoid, yes - but only slightly.
I firmly believe the polls will always under-represent Trump's actual support. Given the reality of Trump Derangement Syndrome, which afflicts even a couple of my best friends, I wouldn't think of wearing a MAGA hat, putting a Trump sign in my yard or pasting a Trump bumper sticker on my car - although I will certainly vote for The Donald once again.
Given the state of the country these days, I think I'd be slightly paranoid even about answering an anonymous poll. I'd be thinking "Who is REALLY asking this question, who is REALLY monitoring these responses, what are going to be the consequences if I answer honestly?" Slightly paranoid, yes - but only slightly.
I would be embarrassed supporting Trump too if I were you. However, I'd put forward the theory that the reluctance to be open about that support has less to do with the disapproval of those you know, but rather your own conscience writhing in agony over supporting such a monster.
See, you can't help yourself. Your entire argument against 2020 polling has been that 2016 was incorrect, but you literally started this thread bragging about 2020 polling simply because it showed you what you wanted (and ironically, still showed Trump behind).
You don't seem to know what you're arguing other than that you have very selective views on polling.
I've been saying forever that polls underestimate Trump, so whenever the Democrat candidate leads by 1 or 2 it means Trump is winning.
That's always been my position, literally since 2016.
And as Wisconsin showed in 2016, sometimes Trump is winning when the Democrat candidate leads by 6.5 too.
Are you taking in to account any improvements in polling methods as changes have been since the last elections. Is the thought that since it was way off in 2016 it will be off again?
I do know that sophistication in predictive analysis in other fields is light years different than it was in 2016.
This is a subject that folks here know a lot about. I want to believe that the modeling functions and scrubbing is better since the data science is more advanced.
Are you taking in to account any improvements in polling methods as changes have been since the last elections. Is the thought that since it was way off in 2016 it will be off again?
I do know that sophistication in predictive analysis in other fields is light years different than it was in 2016.
This is a subject that folks here know a lot about. I want to believe that the modeling functions and scrubbing is better since the data science is more advanced.
We'll find out in November if the polling methods have improved.
But the polling methods didn't work in Florida 2018 midterms....
Riots , arson, looting, Major Corp exodus from cities, mayoral orders to not resist arson and looting, defunding police & Biden
The dems are the best thing that ever happened to this country
Signed gop
No, I'll never assume that polling methods have improved.
But I'm saying if you want to assess pollsters, you have to wait for November.
As I said, there is no indication that they've improved, as most pollsters got Florida wrong in 2018, except for this guy-
"Cahaly’s success continued in 2018, most conspicuously in Florida. He was one of the few pollsters whose data showed Ron DeSantis beating Andrew Gillum in the Florida gubernatorial race and Rick Scott besting incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson in the Senate race. Cahaly’s firm, the Trafalgar Group, has emerged from the last two political cycles as one of the most accurate polling operations in America." https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar...t__143512.html
And if they can't get Florida right in the midterms, I seriously doubt they'll get it right in 2020 with Trump on the ballot.....because nobody is harder to track than Trump supporters.
I firmly believe the polls will always under-represent Trump's actual support. Given the reality of Trump Derangement Syndrome, which afflicts even a couple of my best friends, I wouldn't think of wearing a MAGA hat, putting a Trump sign in my yard or pasting a Trump bumper sticker on my car - although I will certainly vote for The Donald once again.
Given the state of the country these days, I think I'd be slightly paranoid even about answering an anonymous poll. I'd be thinking "Who is REALLY asking this question, who is REALLY monitoring these responses, what are going to be the consequences if I answer honestly?" Slightly paranoid, yes - but only slightly.
Yes, Trump was so under represented in the Tulsa rally right?
I firmly believe the polls will always under-represent Trump's actual support.
the national RCP average was only 1.1points off the final vote in 2016. currently the RCP has biden ahead of trump by 9.8
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