Welcome to City-Data.com Forum!
U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies > Elections
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 06-22-2020, 09:16 AM
 
10,788 posts, read 4,356,071 times
Reputation: 5840

Advertisements

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6761.html
And the polls before that, had him leading by 13 and 16!
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 06-22-2020, 11:45 AM
 
16,345 posts, read 18,077,463 times
Reputation: 7884
So wait, haven't you argued that polls are meaningless many times? That 2016 proves that polls are worthless?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-22-2020, 12:24 PM
 
Location: Atlanta, GA
14,834 posts, read 7,420,277 times
Reputation: 8966
False chronology.

The +13 and the +2 polls cover the same time period.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-22-2020, 12:27 PM
 
Location: Stillwater, Oklahoma
30,976 posts, read 21,655,075 times
Reputation: 9676
Quote:
Originally Posted by jbcmh81 View Post
So wait, haven't you argued that polls are meaningless many times? That 2016 proves that polls are worthless?
No, polls only change like people do. If you're Trump, you would be glad the election isn't today. There is still plenty of time for the polls to change for Trump.

No doubt, Trump supporters would quite greatly praise the polls and trust them if Trump was ahead in them.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-22-2020, 02:08 PM
 
10,788 posts, read 4,356,071 times
Reputation: 5840
Quote:
Originally Posted by jbcmh81 View Post
So wait, haven't you argued that polls are meaningless many times? That 2016 proves that polls are worthless?
I've argued that polls underrate Trump, and that is why Biden leading by 1 point is HUGE, because it means Trump is winning.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-22-2020, 02:15 PM
 
10,788 posts, read 4,356,071 times
Reputation: 5840
Quote:
Originally Posted by atltechdude View Post
False chronology.

The +13 and the +2 polls cover the same time period.
The chronology is correct, because the 3rd poll is 6/9, and that is earlier than the first 2 polls....
6/16-6/18 = Trafalgar Group = Biden +1
6/10-6/12 = CNBC/Change Research = Biden +2
6/9-6/12 = TIPP = Biden +13
5/31-6/4 = EPIC-MRA = Biden +16
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-22-2020, 02:22 PM
 
5,581 posts, read 2,311,555 times
Reputation: 4809
You know Trump is in trouble when his supporters are excited about him being 2 points down in a poll.

Notice how Trump didn't mention the polls at the Tulsa CovidFest.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-22-2020, 02:46 PM
 
10,788 posts, read 4,356,071 times
Reputation: 5840
Quote:
Originally Posted by Variable View Post
You know Trump is in trouble when his supporters are excited about him being 2 points down in a poll.

Notice how Trump didn't mention the polls at the Tulsa CovidFest.
November 7th 2016, Wisconsin = Hillary Clinton +6.5
See, we don't need Trump to lead the polls, we just need him close.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-22-2020, 02:51 PM
 
26,580 posts, read 14,461,486 times
Reputation: 7444
Quote:
Originally Posted by MAGAalot View Post
And the polls before that, had him leading by 13 and 16!

which is the whole reason why you look at an aggregate over a period of time instead of individual polls.


michigan


current RCP: +8.0 biden
june 19 RCP: +8.6 biden

a 0.6 swing in the aggregate.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-22-2020, 02:57 PM
 
10,788 posts, read 4,356,071 times
Reputation: 5840
Quote:
Originally Posted by wrecking ball View Post
which is the whole reason why you look at an aggregate over a period of time instead of individual polls.


michigan current RCP: +8.0 biden
Exactly, look how far that aggregate dropped.
It had been 12 a few weeks ago.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:


Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies > Elections

All times are GMT -6. The time now is 10:57 AM.

© 2005-2024, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top