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Yep shortly after my last post Biden's Florida lead dropped from 1.7 down to 1.4, momentum looking good for Trump.
And I guess when Biden got a "debate bump" it was merely because people saw Biden had the ability to finish a sentence, not enough reason to stick with him long-term.
I don't know if you should be prognosticating. Remember this golden oldie:
That was July 4th. 105 days ago. Trump would be trending down still since Biden is up 0.2 points over those 3.5 months. Possibly the most steady race we've ever seen.
Obviously, Florida is much closer than the national polls are. With Biden up by a 1.3 points in Florida, Trump has got a shot in Florida. But, the bigger picture is that in 2016, Trump was UP in states like Florida and North Carolina. And polls had him up in Nevada and he lost that state.
Pick one state that Trump is UP in 2020 and give that to Biden. Now tell me how he can win in 2020? Remember, polling errors can work both ways. And it turns out that the polling errors in Trump's favor were all in states he needed and by just enough to win them. Whereas most of the polling errors in Clinton's favor were not in states she needed. Polls underestimated her California support. Does her gaining a few points in CA actually help her win the election? No. But she did win Nevada because of a polling error.
Trump will lose Florida this year by more than McCain did in 2008
Do you live in Florida? If you do, how long have you been here. A few weeks ago there was a boat parade that was 25 miles long. Last week there was a car parade for Trump that was Latinos that was 30,000 cars strong.....every weekend there is another boat parade, another car parade. Trump has the Latino vote. There is no way Biden will win. He came here once and talked to 4 reporters, took no questions and left.
Unless we have been infiltrated by too many Liberals bringing their politics with them and they cheat a lot...Trump will carry Florida.
The other issue is Ron DeSantis' proximity to Trump. At the beginning people in Florida were starting to cozy up to DeSantis, he had pretty decent approval ratings compared to Trump, even among Dems. But after the June early opening debacle and his overt political moves close to the election, it has turned many people off. That could end up costing Trump.
I voted for DeSantis and his close association with Trump is annoying me especially in regards to the virus. However, I won't vote against Trump just because I don't like DeSantis at this moment.
The whole business with the laptop doesn't bother me as well. American politicians being venal is nothing new. When I walk up to the voting booth, that is when I will decide.
Do you live in Florida? If you do, how long have you been here. A few weeks ago there was a boat parade that was 25 miles long. Last week there was a car parade for Trump that was Latinos that was 30,000 cars strong.....every weekend there is another boat parade, another car parade. Trump has the Latino vote. There is no way Biden will win. He came here once and talked to 4 reporters, took no questions and left.
Unless we have been infiltrated by too many Liberals bringing their politics with them and they cheat a lot...Trump will carry Florida.
Ive lived in Florida for 23 years and I live here now. Nobody cares about maga boat and car parades. Its beyond ridiculous that you would use that as reasoning for why Trump would win.
We'll know a bit more when EV totals for yesterday come out tomorrow morning. If the GOP is higher in EV, we can look at their percentage lead and see if it will make up for the 450K Democratic lead in the mail-in voting. If the GOP isn't higher, then that might very well be the race.
Keep in mind ~ 15 GOP counties haven't started early vote yet.
If the above 1.3% edge from now on holds for the Republicans, they will not make up the 16.1% advantage by the Democrats. And 16.1% may be on the low side since a net percentage of R's are voting Biden (R's are 10% for Biden, D's are maybe 2% Trump).
They needed 650,000. They are merely 176,000 short. From here on, I look for Rs to steadily outvote Ds--if not every single day, over the regular course up to election day. Trump should win FL by over 200,000.
LOL
First off, independents (which skew younger and non-white) will go heavily for Biden & some Republicans will cross over. Also Trump needs a 15% lead with early voting to make up for getting crushed with mail in voting.
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