Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Reuters
2012: Obama +3% as polled, final result Obama +3.9%
2016: Clinton +5% as polled, final result Clinton +2.1%
Margin of error is a function of the sample size and the population size. A survey with a larger sample will have a smaller margin of error. As you aggregate polls, you are effectively taking a larger sample.
Are you trying to claim that aggregates DON'T have a margin of error?
1. You are cherry-picking polls because the polling averages don't show the results you want. You seriously think that's good methodology?
2. FiveThirtyEight has had Trump winning Ohio for a long time. Look at the chart I posted a few pages ago. Ohio isn't even a real swing state right now.
Obviously you haven't done your homework.
538 has had Trump LOSING Ohio until just the past couple of days.
Are you trying to claim that aggregates DON'T have a margin of error?
No, of course not. I clearly did not say that. I am saying that the margin of error for an aggregation of polls is smaller than the margin of error of the underlying polls.
1. You are cherry-picking polls because the polling averages don't show the results you want. You seriously think that's good methodology?
2. FiveThirtyEight has had Trump winning Ohio for a long time. Look at the chart I posted a few pages ago. Ohio isn't even a real swing state right now.
As someone from Ohio, I would question that conclusion. Why did Trump's 2016 win there change its status?
I will say that I have no idea who is going to win Ohio. Would I give the edge to Trump? Yes, as Ohio has a LOT of the rural, low-information, non-educated white population that is Trump's core base. But it also has a lot of suburban and urban blue collar workers who are traditionally Democratic. Enough of them gave Trump a chance in 2016 based on ridiculous promises about the economy/manufacturing that have not panned out whatsoever. Furthermore, the parts of the state that are growing- Columbus and Cincinnati- are steadily turning evermore blue, including many of their suburbs, and represent an increasing part of the overall electorate.
I made a thread about how there are signs Ohio's been moving back toward the left in this election, from demographic data to voter registration to polling being far less consistent for Trump this time to political signs, etc. If Trump wins it, it will be by a margin MUCH closer than the 8-point win in 2016.
538 has had Trump LOSING Ohio until just the past couple of days.
Were you unaware of this?
I was. But I haven't suggested in this thread that I thought Biden would win Ohio. I don't. It appears that RCP has Trump up just .5%, which is closer than I would have thought.
No, of course not. I clearly did not say that. I am saying that the margin of error for an aggregation of polls is smaller than the margin of error of the underlying polls.
Okay well, you said it doesn't make sense to talk about MOE's when talking about aggregates.
As someone from Ohio, I would question that conclusion. Why did Trump's 2016 win there change its status?
I will say that I have no idea who is going to win Ohio. Would I give the edge to Trump? Yes, as Ohio has a LOT of the rural, low-information, non-educated white population that is Trump's core base. But it also has a lot of suburban and urban blue collar workers who are traditionally Democratic. Enough of them gave Trump a chance in 2016 based on ridiculous promises about the economy/manufacturing that have not panned out whatsoever. Furthermore, the parts of the state that are growing- Columbus and Cincinnati- are steadily turning evermore blue, including many of their suburbs, and represent an increasing part of the overall electorate.
I made a thread about how there are signs Ohio's been moving back toward the left in this election, from demographic data to voter registration to polling being far less consistent for Trump this time to political signs, etc. If Trump wins it, it will be by a margin MUCH closer than the 8-point win in 2016.
As the other poster pointed out, though, it appears I was wrong about how close Ohio is. I thought Trump would have had a 3%+ advantage there, but it's more like .5%. That is definitely a swing state. In fact, the only pollster to have Trump up in Ohio is Trafalgar....which is a controversial pollster.....to say the least.
Okay well, you said it doesn't make sense to talk about MOE's when talking about aggregates.
So now you're amending that erroneous statement?
I was saying it doesn't make sense to talk about the margins of errors for the underlying polls when discussing polling averages, which is what you were doing.
As the other poster pointed out, though, it appears I was wrong about how close Ohio is. I thought Trump would have had a 3%+ advantage there, but it's more like .5%. That is definitely a swing state. In fact, the only pollster to have Trump up in Ohio is Trafalgar....which is a controversial pollster.....to say the least.
Remember when the RCP agg was 2.2 in 2016 and Trump won it by 8.1?
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
