Best/Worst/Most Likely Electoral Maps (Republican, liberal, bias, governor)

[Eeko156]

Originally Posted by looker009

Biden will not win PA

You might be right, he is leading there, but it is not a strong lead. That could sink him, if that is the case.

[Eeko156]

Originally Posted by atltechdude

While I think he will, I also agree that PA is the most likely to go for Trump of the 3 midwestern swing states.

I agree with this statement. It is possible Biden could take FL, though. He needs FL or PA, he cannot lose both of them.

[atltechdude]

Here is a plausible scenario where PA is the tipping point state.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/zjRB0

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

Originally Posted by paracord

Remember when the RCP agg in Iowa in 2016 was 3.0 and Trump won by 9.5?

And which pollsters was the 2016 aggregate based on? And which pollsters are working in Iowa/Michigan/Wisconsin this time around?

You seem to think that all RCP averages are of equal value. They are only as good as the quality of the underlying polls.

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

Originally Posted by Eeko156

Biden will win without OH (where DT has been leading by a hair), assuming polls are accurate and after 2016, I don't put much faith in them.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/N1gBd

Biden has a ton of ways of winning the election without winning Ohio.

[Eeko156]

Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost

Biden has a ton of ways of winning the election without winning Ohio.

That is correct. He must take FL or PA, though. He cannot lose OH, FL and PA.

Trump has held a consistent, although very small lead in OH and is gaining traction with the FL latinos. Biden really needs PA.

[atltechdude]

Originally Posted by Eeko156

That is correct. He must take FL or PA, though. He cannot lose OH, FL and PA.

Actually he can. Here is a plausible scenario where Biden loses all those but still wins.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/Dd8nk

[paracord]

Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost

And which pollsters was the 2016 aggregate based on? And which pollsters are working in Iowa/Michigan/Wisconsin this time around?

You seem to think that all RCP averages are of equal value. They are only as good as the quality of the underlying polls.

Define a "quality" poll.

[paracord]

Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost

Biden has a ton of ways of winning the election without winning Ohio.

Sure but like I mentioned, Ohio is an uncanny bellwether.

It is 29 for the past 31 in picking the overall winner since 1896, the best of any state.

I think the winner of Ohio wins the election this year, too.

[atltechdude]

Originally Posted by paracord

Sure but like I mentioned, Ohio is an uncanny bellwether.

It is 29 for the past 31 in picking the overall winner since 1896, the best of any state.

I think the winner of Ohio wins the election this year, too.

I agree with this entire post.

To further add though, Ohio is right next to PA, MI, and WI, and the blue wave that is sweeping them back into the blue column this year will be just enough to put Ohio over the top for Biden.