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538 has had Trump LOSING Ohio until just the past couple of days.
Were you unaware of this?
Based almost entirely on D- Survey Monkey polls. It's the worst-rated pollster on 538 and is responsible for 20 of the 30 polls from Ohio this month so far. Only 3 polls have been taken in Ohio from pollsters ranked an A or B. The results for those were Biden +2, Biden +1 and Even.
As the other poster pointed out, though, it appears I was wrong about how close Ohio is. I thought Trump would have had a 3%+ advantage there, but it's more like .5%. That is definitely a swing state. In fact, the only pollster to have Trump up in Ohio is Trafalgar....which is a controversial pollster.....to say the least.
Other polls have Trump up, but all of them are ranked C or lower. There have been relatively few high-quality polls in Ohio this year.
Remember when the RCP agg was 2.2 in 2016 and Trump won it by 8.1?
The RCP average was Trump +3.5, not 2.2. The 4.6 point difference is not significantly outside the margin of error on most polling, and within it on some.
Also, assuming that the polling was off by a similar amount now- that would put Trump at about 5 points in the state. As Ohio wouldn't exist outside of a vacuum in the national picture overall, that 3-point movement away from Trump would have implications on other swing states that were far closer in 2016- such as Pennsylvania and Florida.
Based almost entirely on D- Survey Monkey polls. It's the worst-rated pollster on 538 and is responsible for 20 of the 30 polls from Ohio this month so far. Only 3 polls have been taken in Ohio from pollsters ranked an A or B. The results for those were Biden +2, Biden +1 and Even.
Then why does Nate Bronze have Ohio to Trump right now?
The RCP average was Trump +3.5, not 2.2. The 4.6 point difference is not significantly outside the margin of error on most polling, and within it on some.
Also, assuming that the polling was off by a similar amount now- that would put Trump at about 5 points in the state. As Ohio wouldn't exist outside of a vacuum in the national picture overall, that 3-point movement away from Trump would have implications on other swing states that were far closer in 2016- such as Pennsylvania and Florida.
While I think he will, I also agree that PA is the most likely to go for Trump of the 3 midwestern swing states.
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