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I definitely agree it will be a turnout game. I expect that the Democrats will make the mistake of re-nominating Biden or possibly nominating Harris his "natural" (in political party standard thinking) successor, and that will make the Republicans' path easier.
It will be an interesting cycle - I'm not sure what to really expect. However, if Trump fails to get the nomination and decides to run as an independent I think the Democrats win. I also wouldn't be surprised if Trump threatens exactly this to help him get the nomination.
An interesting cycle for sure.
I remain very skeptical that either Trump or Biden will run again; both are aging significantly, and both have lost a lot of the voter favorability they once enjoyed.
Neither party is eager to replay 2016. Nominating both Clinton and Trump assured the voters would split right down the middle at a time when the middle had no room left in it. Both parties were completely out of touch with their constituents in 2016.
None of the above tells me Trump will get a 3rd shot, nor will Biden get another shot. Both parties now need new blood and fresh faces too much. The geezers who called the shots won't have another opportunity like 2016 presented to them again.
If he is not a convict by then, and he is denied the nomination by the GOP, I think he would try a 3rd party run just to inflict damage on the party. He would not be able to embrace a platform of any 3rd party not committed to his own personal whim so if they have any ideological standing or position, they will not accept him. So that boils down to a MAGA 3rd party of some sort, splitting the GOP.
He probably would win the nomination if the primary were to be held right now, but I don't think it would be a lay-up. Or maybe that's my wishful thinking. Primary voters have to think about the chance s the candidates have in the general election. And as bad as Biden is, if it's a rematch of Biden v. Trump in 2024, a Trump win is far from definite. I think what would end up happening is an unprecedented number of voters voting third party/write-in/leave the presidential ballot blank. And we'll have a president with a very shaky mandate, whoever it is.
A long time between now and the primary. A lot can happen, including Trump's health not being good enough to run (or he dies) - the same thing could happen to Biden.
The best case scenario for the Democrats is for Trump to be able to run in 2024, but like the last two elections the outcome would probably be close.
If Trump's puppets gain control of the House and Senate in 2022, there is always the possibility that they could repeat the coup attempt of 2020, so even if Trump loses in reality, there may be enough power in the Congress and in the SCOTUS to claim "fraud" and illegally overturn the election. It will be harder in 2024 since there is a Democrat VP, but make no mistake the planning for that is underway.
If he is not a convict by then, and he is denied the nomination by the GOP, I think he would try a 3rd party run just to inflict damage on the party. He would not be able to embrace a platform of any 3rd party not committed to his own personal whim so if they have any ideological standing or position, they will not accept him. So that boils down to a MAGA 3rd party of some sort, splitting the GOP.
That's a reasonable possibility to me. Trump likes to be a spoiler almost as much as a winner.
... Both parties now need new blood and fresh faces too much. The geezers who called the shots won't have another opportunity like 2016 presented to them again.
I agree.
It is time for new blood.
I think that both the president and Trump know this too, whether they want to admit it or not. My guess is ultimately neither will attempt a run again, they just can't say it right now.
If he is not a convict by then, and he is denied the nomination by the GOP, I think he would try a 3rd party run just to inflict damage on the party. He would not be able to embrace a platform of any 3rd party not committed to his own personal whim so if they have any ideological standing or position, they will not accept him. So that boils down to a MAGA 3rd party of some sort, splitting the GOP.
Nah, he is not Ted Kennedy. He was Ronald Reagan's wingman in 1980. Democrats put Trump below Satan. Beware what you wish for, he might get elected and drop 3 more in the S.C.
and the GOP can't deny him the nomination if he wins it outright. I want to see a broker convention if they dare.
That's a reasonable possibility to me. Trump likes to be a spoiler almost as much as a winner.
Would he win, though? Nope. I don't think so.
You put him against Joe, Kamala, Pete or Elizabeth and he wins. You are in Idaho, what's the matter with you? You make it sound that the Democrat bench is an All Star Team.
If Republicans will oust Biden then they must start in the primary. If they can't beat Trump in the primary don't expect anybody in the party to win the general.
You think if the GOP establishment lets the Democrats indict Trump and jail him and cheers , that's going to sit well with millions of voters and expect they will forget and vote for whoever the party throws at them? LOL
If the only hope to beat Trump is to arrest him or wish his death that says more about his weak opposition.
A long time between now and the primary. A lot can happen, including Trump's health not being good enough to run (or he dies) - the same thing could happen to Biden.
The best case scenario for the Democrats is for Trump to be able to run in 2024, but like the last two elections the outcome would probably be close.
If Trump's puppets gain control of the House and Senate in 2022, there is always the possibility that they could repeat the coup attempt of 2020, so even if Trump loses in reality, there may be enough power in the Congress and in the SCOTUS to claim "fraud" and illegally overturn the election. It will be harder in 2024 since there is a Democrat VP, but make no mistake the planning for that is underway.
Next year SCOTUS will rule on Harper v Moore which will give state legislature absolute control over elections. State legislators will determine the election and certify their slate of electors long before January 6th. Btw, absolute control control means that governors and state courts cannot interfere with the legislature. The VP won't matter it will be fait accompli.
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You make it sound that the Democrat bench is an All Star Team.
