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Not really. You basically have 2 (R)'s in there splitting the vote, which gives a decided advantage to the democrat.
Be that as it may, 2 recent polls show Hoffman in the lead, with Scazza fading. What is interesting is the party-line establishment GOP nominating and supporting Scazza, while the grassroots "conservatives" support Hoffman.
Scazza supports Card Check, the failed stimulus, abortion - she is hardly the ideal conservative. She won the Margaret Sanger "abortion" award in 2008.
Another thing; this is a special election, so there wasn't a normal primary process.
The two polls that showed Hoffman in the lead were from partisan pollsters. One from the Club for Growth, the other from the Minutemen Project,
As far as Scazza being fairly liberal, its the type of Republicans that won when Republicans use to get elected around here. The old school Rockefeller type Republicans. Think Sherwood Bohelert who for many years was the rep of one of the bordering districts (Ny-24) for many years.
The two polls that showed Hoffman in the lead were from partisan pollsters. One from the Club for Growth, the other from the Minutemen Project,
As far as Scazza being fairly liberal, its the type of Republicans that won when Republicans use to get elected around here. The old school Rockefeller type Republicans. Think Sherwood Bohelert who for many years was the rep of one of the bordering districts (Ny-24) for many years.
She is dem-lite. We have seen what happened to dem-lite republicans, ala 2006 and 2008.
We saw what happened to the quintessential moderate, across the aisle republican the liberals say we need to embrace, ala McCain.
She is dem-lite. We have seen what happened to dem-lite republicans, ala 2006 and 2008.
We saw what happened to the quintessential moderate, across the aisle republican the liberals say we need to embrace, ala McCain.
Some of them lost because they had R's next to the name in Democratic districts because of how far to the right Republicans have become. Others who lost were very conservative. McCain ran to the right in 2008. The McCain circa 2000 would have still lost, but would have done better.
On November 3 there will be a special election for New York's 23th which has been vacated by Republican congressman John McHugh following his appointment as secretary of the Army. The district is pretty much a tossup and there is a three way race between a Democrat, a Republican and a Conservative party candidate who has been endorsed by the club for growth, Sarah Palin, influential members of the Tea Party movement.
Both the Democrat and Tea Party candidates seem to be in a position to be competitive. What I am wondering is what people think a win by either the Conservative (Tea Party) candidate or a win for the democrat will mean.
Personally, I think that if the Democrat wins it will be a major setback for the right wing tea party group from which they probably will not be able to recover. If the Tea Party candidate wins I think I will seriously shake up the Republican party and perhaps push it further right into the camp of the Sarah Palin & Grover Norquist types.
Edit: sorry about the extra "the" in the title.
I really wouldn't read much into it. I have no problem with 3rd parties (and, in fact, supported Barr/Root for President), but do agree that the 3-way race is going to hurt Hoffman as rank-and-file (R)s may support Scozzafavva who is a leftist although she has (R) after her name.
If Hoffman wins, it would be a good sign that voters in that district are opposed to Big Government policies (which Obama supports). If the (D) wins (Scozzafavva appears to be fading), it wouldn't be a big signal as Scozzafavva would be taking many more votes away from Hoffman than the (D, whose name I think is Owens).
I think this may come into play in the NJ Governor's race as well. This is unfortunate, as Corzine is a completely incompetent leftist who needs to be defeated. The independent (Daggett) is drawing 2 votes away from Christie (R) vs Corzine, according to Luntz. He said this morning that, if Daggett breaks 10%, it is going to be very tough for Christie to win. That would be bad for NJ residents though, if they vote Corzine in again, they deserve to deal with a continuation of his detrimental policies.
I really wouldn't read much into it. I have no problem with 3rd parties (and, in fact, supported Barr/Root for President), but do agree that the 3-way race is going to hurt Hoffman as rank-and-file (R)s may support Scozzafavva who is a leftist although she has (R) after her name.
If Hoffman wins, it would be a good sign that voters in that district are opposed to Big Government policies (which Obama supports). If the (D) wins (Scozzafavva appears to be fading), it wouldn't be a big signal as Scozzafavva would be taking many more votes away from Hoffman than the (D, whose name I think is Owens).
I think this may come into play in the NJ Governor's race as well. This is unfortunate, as Corzine is a completely incompetent leftist who needs to be defeated. The independent (Daggett) is drawing 2 votes away from Christie (R) vs Corzine, according to Luntz. He said this morning that, if Daggett breaks 10%, it is going to be very tough for Christie to win. That would be bad for NJ residents though, if they vote Corzine in again, they deserve to deal with a continuation of his detrimental policies.
Few points. For starters I'm really not sure if Scozzafavva is fading, the polls which have showed that are purely partisan (Minutemen project & Club for Growth) secondly its really hard to say Scozzafavva will take more votes away from Hoffman than Owens. Scozzafavva is the type of Republican that can get the support of Independents and even get Dems to crossover. The district tends to also have a decent amount of the old school Rockefeller Republicans, those who are still Republican, but won't vote for conservative Republicans as noted by the fact that the last several Presidential elections have been competitive in the district despite the GOP having a double digit registration advantage.
looks to me like they already have shown that they are a force to be reckoned with in the poll numbers alone. I am shocked that they have grown this much in such a short time.
Some of them lost because they had R's next to the name in Democratic districts because of how far to the right Republicans have become. Others who lost were very conservative. McCain ran to the right in 2008. The McCain circa 2000 would have still lost, but would have done better.
Was Lincoln Chaffey far right (R)? No.
If not for Palin on the ticket, conservatives would have stayed home even more and McCain would have really been shellacked.
Well, I suppose that sends Mr Steele and Newt a message. I see ACORN has run up there <snort>. That ought to really help the Democrat.
"At this moment, the Democratic Party, the Working Families Party, ACORN, Big Labor and pro-abortion groups are flooding the district with troops and they are flooding the airwaves with a million dollars worth of negative ads."
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