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On November 3 there will be a special election for New York's 23th which has been vacated by Republican congressman John McHugh following his appointment as secretary of the Army. The district is pretty much a tossup and there is a three way race between a Democrat, a Republican and a Conservative party candidate who has been endorsed by the club for growth, Sarah Palin, influential members of the Tea Party movement.
Both the Democrat and Tea Party candidates seem to be in a position to be competitive. What I am wondering is what people think a win by either the Conservative (Tea Party) candidate or a win for the democrat will mean.
Personally, I think that if the Democrat wins it will be a major setback for the right wing tea party group from which they probably will not be able to recover. If the Tea Party candidate wins I think I will seriously shake up the Republican party and perhaps push it further right into the camp of the Sarah Palin & Grover Norquist types.
Last edited by Reads2MUCH; 10-31-2009 at 09:29 AM..
Not especially, it voted for Obama by 5% in 2008 and it is not nearly as conservative as western tier districts NY 26, and NY 29.
Interesting, I have family that live in that district. Pretty much everyone I know up there is hard core right wing. Maybe that's changing. I would have never guessed they'd have voted for Obama by any percent!
Interesting, I have family that live in that district. Pretty much everyone I know up there is hard core right wing. Maybe that's changing. I would have never guessed they'd have voted for Obama by any percent!
Depends on the portions of the district. It is a rather expansive district both geographically and politically. Hamilton, Lewis, Fulton, Jefferson & the portions of Onedia are all fairly Republican and conservative. Oswego is more of a mixed bag (though GOP has a strong registration advantage), but the northern tier counties of Clinton, St Lawrence, Franklin and the portions of Essex are fairly Democratic St Lawrence & Franklin have voted for the Dem candidate in the last 5 Presidential races, Clinton in the last 4 (Bush won by 1% in 92). The GOP does have a registration advantage in the district 42.67-30.83 (as of April 1st), though that doesn't always mean everything, for example Oswego county , the GOP has a 21 point registration advantage yet Obama won by 2.5%.
The Republican in the race Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava is quite liberal and basically your throwback to the old-school Rockefeller type Republican. She has been endorsed by the WFP in the past, she is pro-choice, and pro gay-marriage (voted for it in the Assembly in 07 & earlier this year)
I don't think this one win alone would put them on the road to a credible third party status, but several more might. They could certainly garner a lot of votes here in Texas. However, I don't see the independant voters nor the moderate republicans backing them nationwide. And I doubt they would get a single Democratic Swing voter.
On November 3 there will be a special election for New York's 23th which has been vacated by Republican congressman John McHugh following his appointment as secretary of the Army. The district is pretty much a tossup and there is a three way race between a Democrat, a Republican and a Conservative party candidate who has been endorsed by the club for growth, Sarah Palin, influential members of the Tea Party movement.
Both the Democrat and Tea Party candidates seem to be in a position to be competitive. What I am wondering is what people think a win by either the Conservative (Tea Party) candidate or a win for the democrat will mean.
Personally, I think that if the Democrat wins it will be a major setback for the right wing tea party group from which they probably will not be able to recover. If the Tea Party candidate wins I think I will seriously shake up the Republican party and perhaps push it further right into the camp of the Sarah Palin & Grover Norquist types.
Edit: sorry about the extra "the" in the title.
I am not sure why people and the media associated the "conservative" candidate with being a "tea party" candidate... I mean the guy is a SOCIAL conservative which is almost against the ideals of "tea party" candidate as the candidate would push their "social identity" onto Americans... "tea party" basically is less government and more "people power"... the other two candidates (dems and repubs) are basically "corporate power"... just because the conservative is not for "corporations" doesn't mean they are inclusive of the "tea party"... is that confusing enough for everyone?
Personally, I think that if the Democrat wins it will be a major setback for the right wing tea party group from which they probably will not be able to recover. If the Tea Party candidate wins I think I will seriously shake up the Republican party and perhaps push it further right into the camp of the Sarah Palin & Grover Norquist types.
Not really. You basically have 2 (R)'s in there splitting the vote, which gives a decided advantage to the democrat.
Be that as it may, 2 recent polls show Hoffman in the lead, with Scazza fading. What is interesting is the party-line establishment GOP nominating and supporting Scazza, while the grassroots "conservatives" support Hoffman.
Scazza supports Card Check, the failed stimulus, abortion - she is hardly the ideal conservative. She won the Margaret Sanger "abortion" award in 2008.
Another thing; this is a special election, so there wasn't a normal primary process.
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