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Lawson got nearly 40% in the year of Obama. For a state that's solid, and considering the anti-incumbent atmosphere this year, we'll just have to see. There's no Obama to vote for this year, so it'll be hard to get the minorities in Durham out to vote if there isn't a motivating factor. Like I said, Price is quintessential old rich white man. Minorities won't identify with that.
Price lost before (in 1994) and he may just lose again out of his own arrogance.
The 08 race was 63.3-36.7, it wasn't even remotely close. If this was even somewhat vulnerable it would at least be on one of the radars of those who predict the races, its not even on one of them.
While he did lose in 94, its not the same district as it was 16 years ago. The district did become slightly more Democratic after the last round of redistricting (Gore won the old lines by 3.3, the current lines by 7.5), but the bigger issue is the district has become quite a bit more liberal since then as well. Lawson will probably do better than his 26.6 point defeat in 2008, but he isn't going to get anywhere close.
David Price looks a lot like what progressives claim they hate: rich, white, old and no new ideas. Price is just a shadow in the congress, a bobblehead doll. We'll see what the anti-incumbent message brings in the 4th. David Price is so arrogant that he hasn't even started a campaign website yet and has no message or issue summary, a very bad sign considering the anti-establishment and anti-Democrat wave, even in his very liberal gerrymandered district.
The 08 race was 63.3-36.7, it wasn't even remotely close. If this was even somewhat vulnerable it would at least be on one of the radars of those who predict the races, its not even on one of them.
While he did lose in 94, its not the same district as it was 16 years ago. The district did become slightly more Democratic after the last round of redistricting (Gore won the old lines by 3.3, the current lines by 7.5), but the bigger issue is the district has become quite a bit more liberal since then as well. Lawson will probably do better than his 26.6 point defeat in 2008, but he isn't going to get anywhere close.
Lawson appeals to crunchy granola liberals and progressives, and this is evidenced by his showing at the uber-progressive Eno River Festival, where MANY Democrats came up to him and apologized they were not able to vote for him in the primaries and that they will make up for it in the general. Of course there'll be hard core Democrats who'll play the party first, party always mantra, but I'm confident these people do not make up a large % of the district. Lawson homesteads and has headed up the Pittsboro Plenty, plus supports sustainable development. This is an off-election year and minorities will be hard to find this time around since there is no Obama, and Lawson has a literal army of registered Reps AND Dems helping him out going door to door. This district may, just may, be represent the biggest bushwhacking in the nation.
Lawson appeals to crunchy granola liberals and progressives, and this is evidenced by his showing at the uber-progressive Eno River Festival, where MANY Democrats came up to him and apologized they were not able to vote for him in the primaries and that they will make up for it in the general. Of course there'll be hard core Democrats who'll play the party first, party always mantra, but I'm confident these people do not make up a large % of the district. Lawson homesteads and has headed up the Pittsboro Plenty, plus supports sustainable development. This is an off-election year and minorities will be hard to find this time around since there is no Obama, and Lawson has a literal army of registered Reps AND Dems helping him out going door to door. This district may, just may, be represent the biggest bushwhacking in the nation.
Nice reply, you summed up your point succinctly with plenty of cited evidence to the contrary, filled with polling data and the general pulse of the 4th district of NC. And of course, you've recently been to the Carrboro Farmer's market and the Eno River Festival (?)
Nice reply, you summed up your point succinctly with plenty of cited evidence to the contrary, filled with polling data and the general pulse of the 4th district of NC. And of course, you've recently been to the Carrboro Farmer's market and the Eno River Festival (?)
Its based off the fact the district is liberal and strongly Democratic. Having some supporters going to a festival in a very liberal areas such as the Carrboro Farmer's market or the Eno River Festival, does not change the make up of this district. You don't lose by over 26 points one election and come back and win the net, even under a very different political climate, you don't get absolutely demolished and then come back and win. The fact not a single one of those who are rating the House races, even those who are predicting the GOP to take over the House, have this race listed as anything other than Safe Dem.
Its based off the fact the district is liberal and strongly Democratic.
Liberals actually like Lawson. Price is pro-unpatriot act and pro-bank bailout. That may be part of the reason.
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Having some supporters going to a festival in a very liberal areas such as the Carrboro Farmer's market or the Eno River Festival, does not change the make up of this district. You don't lose by over 26 points one election and come back and win the net
Apples/oranges considering that '08 was about Obama.
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even under a very different political climate, you don't get absolutely demolished and then come back and win.
You do when '08 Price campaigners come to help out with stumping in '10. Yep, it's happened in at least a handful of cases. Mostly because they are disenchanted with his stance on war and the patriot act.
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The fact not a single one of those who are rating the House races, even those who are predicting the GOP to take over the House, have this race listed as anything other than Safe Dem.
Of course, you have polls to support this "evidence".
Liberals actually like Lawson. Price is pro-unpatriot act and pro-bank bailout. That may be part of the reason.
Not nearly enough for him to win, Lawson is also pro-life, against the health care bill. Those positions may help in some districts, not in this one.
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Originally Posted by summers73
Apples/oranges considering that '08 was about Obama.
Still doesn't change the fact he got absolutely demolished. If Lawson was a viable candidate for this district, he would have gotten closer than 26 points, even with Obama at the top of the ticket in 08
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Originally Posted by summers73
You do when '08 Price campaigners come to help out with stumping in '10. Yep, it's happened in at least a handful of cases. Mostly because they are disenchanted with his stance on war and the patriot act.
Some people perhaps, but its simply not going to be anywhere close to enough.
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Originally Posted by summers73
Of course, you have polls to support this "evidence".
Not every district is polled, districts that aren't competitive generally are not polled. Check out Rothenberg, the Cook Political Report, Congressional Quarterly, Larry Sabato, etc, not a SINGLE One has the race even remotely competitive.
Not nearly enough for him to win, Lawson is also pro-life, against the health care bill. Those positions may help in some districts, not in this one.
One of his campaign managers from '08 is a California hippie who's pro-choice. Doesn't seem to be affecting his most ardent supporters.
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Still doesn't change the fact he got absolutely demolished.
Still doesn't change the fact that it means nothing when comparing it to a non-presidential election against an incumbent who's been beaten before and when the presidential candidate's votes were made up of minorities, who'll be absent from this election cycle.
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Some people perhaps, but its simply not going to be anywhere close to enough.
Like I said, we'll just have to see. I'm quite glad that many Price supporters are arrogant enough to believe these "experts". Keeps them from campaigning for him.
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Not every district is polled, districts that aren't competitive generally are not polled. Check out Rothenberg, the Cook Political Report, Congressional Quarterly, Larry Sabato, etc, not a SINGLE One has the race even remotely competitive.
Until it's polled, these "expert"'s opinions are about as useful as "expert" opinions back in 2005 on the future of the housing market. That is, not worth the toilet paper it could be transformed into.
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David Price is so arrogant that he hasn't even started a campaign website yet and has no message or issue summary, a very bad sign considering the anti-establishment and anti-Democrat wave, even in his very liberal gerrymandered district.
