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The district split isn't anywhere even remotely close to 45-28, its far more Democratic than that.
Cite? Do you have (all the way from your LI location) a breakdown of the registration status of likely voters? Even if it's slightly more than 45-28, the majority of the young libs won't show up because either
1) They don't know Price/don't care
2) They think the Dem victory is in the bag anyway so why bother showing up?
3) They have a lot more fun things to do than to go out of their way to vote in a midterm election?
It also covers the suburban areas of Cary (soccer mom repubs) and Hillsborough, Mebane, etc (redneck repubs).
Cite? Do you have (all the way from your LI location) a breakdown of the registration status of likely voters? Even if it's slightly more than 45-28, the majority of the young libs won't show up because either
1) They don't know Price/don't care
2) They think the Dem victory is in the bag anyway so why bother showing up?
3) They have a lot more fun things to do than to go out of their way to vote in a midterm election?
It also covers the suburban areas of Cary (soccer mom repubs) and Hillsborough, Mebane, etc (redneck repubs).
In 2006, another midterm, Price got 65% of the vote in winning his 6th consecutive election. Sure looks like someone came out for him then.
In 2008, Price won his 7th straight, by embarrassing old BJ 63%-37%. Which is no doubt one of the reasons why all of the regular polling organizations consider this a safe Democratic seat.
Lawson might have a chance this year, but only if the voting machines are rigged or something. I mean, why should we go against history and the REAL polling outfits and believe you and the BJ Lawson campaign instead?
In 2006, another midterm, Price got 65% of the vote in winning his 6th consecutive election. Sure looks like someone came out for him then.
The economy was rather good back then. People were salivating over 20% yearly increases on their home equity. Now it's not and they are blaming Dems. Simple as that.
Quote:
In 2008, Price won his 7th straight, by embarrassing old BJ 63%-37%. Which is no doubt one of the reasons why all of the regular polling organizations consider this a safe Democratic seat.
Year of Obama, meaning lots of intercity minorities in Durham voted on race. They will be absent this year since this is a boring midterm election and Price isn't even well known among many in his district. Also, Lawson received far more votes than McCain in the district. Meaning, independents and Dems voted for him, even if they voted for Obama. Sorry those people were mind numbed straight party ticket voters like you wanted them to be. Also, many in the 4th are blaming Dems for a poor economy hitting the triangle area. Sorry they're not blaming Bush like you wanted them to.
Quote:
Lawson might have a chance this year, but only if the voting machines are rigged or something. I mean, why should we go against history and the REAL polling outfits and believe you and the BJ Lawson campaign instead?
Price lost before, and this revolution looks to be shaping far worse than 1994 when he did lose. That's history for you.
Oh, and when you find a "real" poll, you be sure to let me know, mmmm-kay? Until then, I'll go by the information available to me for 2010, not 2006, and not 2008. Quit living in the past.
“This isn’t your standard polling outfit,†said David Wasserman, house editor for The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan elections analysis group. “This is an outfit that most in Washington would not consider reputable. All the indicators are that David Price is in a strong position to win re-election.â€
Cite? Do you have (all the way from your LI location) a breakdown of the registration status of likely voters? Even if it's slightly more than 45-28, the majority of the young libs won't show up because either
1) They don't know Price/don't care
2) They think the Dem victory is in the bag anyway so why bother showing up?
3) They have a lot more fun things to do than to go out of their way to vote in a midterm election?
It also covers the suburban areas of Cary (soccer mom repubs) and Hillsborough, Mebane, etc (redneck repubs).
NC has a breakdown by voter registration by county not by district, so you can't get something exact. The district covers Orange, Durham, and portions of Wake and Chattam. The Orange and Durham numbers make it virtually impossible to have only a 17 point gap, even if the Wake breakout is a GOP advantage (which it probably isn't). On top of that the poll is NOT likely voters. Its registered voters. It specifically states its a list of registered voters provided by the Lawson campaign in the Press Release.
NC has a breakdown by voter registration by county not by district, so you can't get something exact. The district covers Orange, Durham, and portions of Wake and Chattam. The Orange and Durham numbers make it virtually impossible to have only a 17 point gap, even if the Wake breakout is a GOP advantage (which it probably isn't). On top of that the poll is NOT likely voters. Its registered voters. It specifically states its a list of registered voters provided by the Lawson campaign in the Press Release.
Cite? Do you have (all the way from your LI location) a breakdown of the registration status of likely voters? Even if it's slightly more than 45-28, the majority of the young libs won't show up because either
1) They don't know Price/don't care
2) They think the Dem victory is in the bag anyway so why bother showing up?
3) They have a lot more fun things to do than to go out of their way to vote in a midterm election?
It also covers the suburban areas of Cary (soccer mom repubs) and Hillsborough, Mebane, etc (redneck repubs).
Have you ever been to Hillsborough?!?! It is neither Republican nor Redneck. It is a rather quaint, artsy town that has consistently voted democratic. I believe even John Kerry won it by just under a 2-1 margin.
Last edited by Randomstudent; 09-08-2010 at 01:20 PM..
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Also, many in the 4th are blaming Dems for a poor economy hitting the triangle area. Sorry they're not blaming Bush like you wanted them to.
