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Right. As you know, the problem with remaining in the country to organize a mass protest is, that no one wants to be hauled off to jail for 15 years. At the beginning of the war, a Russian journalist published a letter in the NY Times, which I posted here, that said he and all his colleagues and other like-minded citizens had failed. He said, none of the protests they'd organized, even nation-wide ones held in cities across the country, had achieved anything. Perhaps they hadn't protested enough, or gathered enough protestors, or tried all strategies available. But it was clear their efforts had failed. He said, the protests began with P's 2nd administration after Medvedev, I think.
That person and others left for Georgia. Now a new wave of potential protestors are voting with their feet, and are flooding border crossings. People don't have faith that protest will do anything but get them in trouble
What would you do, if you were in their shoes, grega? Stay and try to organize something, or run?
Yes, political action is virtually impossible in Russia. The Kremlin doesn't tolerate protests and they don't tolerate anyone else (besides Putin) having any political power. Of course most governments don't like protests or dealing with opposition, but the difference is that in Russia, at a practical level at least, there is really nothing constraining Vladimir Putin - so he can do literally anything he wants to you, either via the legal system, or simply through thugs and assassins. He couldn't be President forever, so he changed the constitution so now he can. The Kremlin fabricates criminal charges as desired so as to nullify individuals, or, they just have them killed. Technically, none of that is legal, but then, the cost of pointing that out is being jailed or killed yourself, and that goes for private individuals and members of the government. You could try to stand in an election against Putin, but anyone who does that, and might even conceivably, possibly win, is jailed or shot.
People who live in free societies, who think oh, I'd just do this or I'd just do that, don't understand what life is really like there. Look at all the rich and powerful oligarchs who have been murdered by Putin in the past year, and with little notice, let alone any consequences - and no one has done anything and no one can do anything. Anyone who thinks that they might organize mass protests or even a revolution is dreaming - the people are watched and such ideas are simply nipped in the bud and the leaders of would-be actions are neutralized, one way or another.
It's not impossible that Putin will be killed by some plotters near him... there were also attempts on Hitler's life by people in his circle as well. But Putin knows that there are people who would like to get rid of him, and again, he will work to just nip things in the bud. If he suspects *anything*, he doesn't need any proof... the next thing you know, these people will fall out of a window, fall down the stairs, be run over by a car by accident, suffer a mysterious illness, commit suicide, or be murdered under unsolved circumstances, very easy.
Last edited by OutdoorLover; 09-23-2022 at 01:16 PM..
It's not impossible that Putin will be killed by some plotters near him... there were also attempts on Hitler's life by people in his circle as well. But Putin knows that there are people who would like to get rid of him, and again, he will work to just nip things in the bud. If he suspects *anything*, he doesn't need any proof... the next thing you know, these people will fall out of a window, fall down the stairs, be run over by a car by accident, suffer a mysterious illness, commit suicide, or be murdered under unsolved circumstances, very easy.
I agree w/everything, just edited for brevity.
As i've said before on the war threads, plenty of people close to Stalin had hoped, planned, to off him. None succeeded. IOW, we have seen this type of scenario before in Russia, so we should know what's doable and what isn't. P has had tasters for his food for close to 2 decades (since he took over from Medvedev, roughly). Undoubtedly he's taken other precautions as well.
And you're right; people used to living in free societies can't relate, so they propose simplistic and unrealistic solutions.
Still, I was surprised to learn from that self-exiled journalist publishing in the NY TImes, that there had been repeated occasions of protests, some--nationwide. I knew there had been protests; I didn't know how big they'd been. And grega had a point in saying, that the jails wouldn't be able to house 300,000 people. But mobilizing that many would be quite a feat. Especially now, after the first wave of refugees from a new criminal code making use of the word "war" in the Ukrainian context illegal. As we saw, even people standing alone on the sidewalk holding a blank sign got hauled away. Even little old ladies, pensioners.
So in order to mobilize 300,000 protesters at this point, you'd have to convince them to NOT leave the country, and stay behind for this unprecedented event. And you'd have to be able to rely on their keeping their word.
And then what? Would the regime be able to mobilize 300,000 police and (loyal!) army "reservists" to haul away the protesters? Would the regime re-open a gulag or two for them?
I think you don't understand a very simple thing. The overwhelming majority of Russians support Putin. They may disagree on the details, but they are generally supportive.
As i've said before on the war threads, plenty of people close to Stalin had hoped, planned, to off him. None succeeded. IOW, we have seen this type of scenario before in Russia, so we should know what's doable and what isn't. P has had tasters for his food for close to 2 decades (since he took over from Medvedev, roughly). Undoubtedly he's taken other precautions as well.
And you're right; people used to living in free societies can't relate, so they propose simplistic and unrealistic solutions.
Still, I was surprised to learn from that self-exiled journalist publishing in the NY TImes, that there had been repeated occasions of protests, some--nationwide. I knew there had been protests; I didn't know how big they'd been. And grega had a point in saying, that the jails wouldn't be able to house 300,000 people. But mobilizing that many would be quite a feat. Especially now, after the first wave of refugees from a new criminal code making use of the word "war" in the Ukrainian context illegal. As we saw, even people standing alone on the sidewalk holding a blank sign got hauled away. Even little old ladies, pensioners.
So in order to mobilize 300,000 protesters at this point, you'd have to convince them to NOT leave the country, and stay behind for this unprecedented event. And you'd have to be able to rely on their keeping their word.
And then what? Would the regime be able to mobilize 300,000 police and (loyal!) army "reservists" to haul away the protesters? Would the regime re-open a gulag or two for them?
There have been some protests that were not brutally put down. After Boris Nemtsov, the opposition politician was shot to death outside the Kremlin (while all the security cameras were coincidentally "down for maintenance"), there were some peaceful protest marches held in his memory, with only small numbers of people arrested and beaten. Nemtsov was killed after calling for a protest march.
Also there were some large protests by pensioners a few years ago, and I think even Putin didn't want to be inflicting beatings and mass arrests on large numbers of elderly people, so they were tolerated, and there were even some concessions in the legislature. But that was a very rare thing.
With respect to the subject of the state of freedom in contemporary Russia that has come up , I may as well jot down some points of reasoning that will hopefully add to the discussion , especially in regards to possibly providing some insight to those among my fellow Americans who have never left the " matrix " of Anglo society so to speak :
1 . Mainstream media bias casting countries " the West " is in geopolitical conflict with as being unfree is extremely widespread , with your typical Anglo ( if not Western ) country resident being at a distinct disadvantage with regard to detecting said bias , due to ( among other things ) poor to non existent foreign language skills .
While I do not wish to argue from a position of authority , this point really cannot be understated , as I've learned since gaining the ability to speak/read Hungarian , since the contrast between the on the ground reality of residing ( even part time as I do ) in the country and the English language media's coverage of it is truly like night and day in terms of the actual truth .
Therefore I can only argue in favor of the position of Western people in general maintaining extreme skepticism in relation to whatever they read about the state of freedom in contemporary Russia , since if the state of freedom in a country that isn't nearly in as much geopolitical conflict with the West as Hungary can be so viciously misrepresented in the Western press , it only stands to reason that said form of bias will be all the more stronger in the case of the Russian Federation .
2 . Cultural bias against all non " Anglo-Protestant " countries is very deeply embedded within both the Western press and the general psyche of Western people in general , including when it comes to the issue of how free said non " Anglo-Prostestant " societies are .
This is also a point that quite likely can only be truly grasped if one removes themselves from the " matrix " of Anglo/Anglo dominated Western society , but failing that I can highly recommend the works of Erik von Kuehnelt-Leddihn as a sort of " start off " pack that fully explores this dimension of the issue .
His writings on Catholic/Orthodox based versus Protestant based culture are very instructive in terms of gaining insight as to how the societies derived from aforementioned cultures approach the question of freedom in general .
3 . To speak of there being " free " and " unfree " societies that exist outside of the most remote corners in the world in the post 9/11 and ( arguably soon to be at least ) post COVID world is a rather false dichotomy in my humble view , as evidenced by the simple fact that no society that can be called in any way advanced truly respects freedom in the classical liberal sense , which is still the term most implicitly reference when speaking of " free " societies .
Of course I'll refrain from fully expounding upon this issue for want of both space and scope , but suffice to say that I cannot fathom how any society that went along with the most recent assaults on personal freedom as exemplified by 90 plus percent of COVID restrictions can be truly called " free " , thus making Western societies no more truly dedicated to the concept of freedom than Russian society is .
At best one can talk of certain societies being more or less free than others , especially in certain aspects of the term , but on that note I must digress .
4 . None of these points are meant to suggest that the contemporary Russian Federation is a Third Rome like beacon of freedom in comparison to the West or what have you , only that positing either side as being ( even if implicitly ) inherently " free " or " unfree " is a quite mistaken stance IMO .
Freedom as such has long been under increasing assault since modernity began , with the intensity of this assault arguably increasing by the day as ( f.ex ) technological wizardry marches on , and to speak of it as being limited to one or the other of the two great spheres of geopolitical influence is rather limited in it's actual veracity I'm afraid .
So maybe you should report back to your guvnors, tell em they gotta do something different. People in the West aren't as easy to brainwash as Russians because unlike Russians people in the West have lived in free societies with a free press for generations.
You have to agree it's very suspicious they rush to referendums when they lost a momentum, sure they can still win it's not beyond the realm of possibilities but the moment Ukraine had the biggest spark of hope since February and they're so quick to make "fair" referendum lol gimme a break.
+ I was just watching some American General on Fox News who said exactly what I was saying yet some people here accuse me of switching sides so to speak: Russia cannot loose if the war is about their own survival, but they will loose in Ukraine. Plain and simple.
I think you don't understand a very simple thing. The overwhelming majority of Russians support Putin. They may disagree on the details, but they are generally supportive.
Yes It’s clear that Putin still holds a lot of support, if the people were truly against him I think there would’ve been way more protesters. Khabarovsk in 2020 proved that when Russian people are truly ticked off they will go out in mass.
That being said, I think the majority of Putin’s support is more of apathy than anything else. Russia doesn’t have any other choice, and for them Putin is good enough. But as this war wages on, more men get conscripted and more body bags get sent back, his support will start to wane, and Russians will start to question his authority, like they did with the tsar during WWI.
But then again, who knows, winter is coming, and it’s still unclear who general winter will side with, Ukraine or Russia.
:
Of course I'll refrain from fully expounding upon this issue for want of both space and scope , but suffice to say that I cannot fathom how any society that went along with the most recent assaults on personal freedom as exemplified by 90 plus percent of COVID restrictions can be truly called " free " , thus making Western societies no more truly dedicated to the concept of freedom than Russian society is .
:
Assuming that you're not corresponding from "the worker's paradise" already, you really should move to your beloved Russia. Spend 3 years there, and then come back and expound on the great and glorious freedoms of Russia. I encourage you to:
- Start a business in Moscow in a conspicuous place, that will attract the attention of local authorities and residents alike
- Conduct some earnest political activism and campaign for an opposition candidate to Putin
- Protest the Ukraine war outside the Kremlin
I am sure it will be a fun-filled time, full of surprises! And you won't suffer the horrible tyranny of being urged to get vaccinated, just because there's a pandemic - what could possibly be worse, right?
Last edited by OutdoorLover; 09-23-2022 at 05:01 PM..
Assuming that you're not corresponding from "the worker's paradise" already, you really should move to your beloved Russia. Spend 3 years there, and then come back and expound on the great and glorious freedoms of Russia. I encourage you to:
- Start a business in Moscow in a conspicuous place, that will attract the attention of local authorities and residents alike
- Conduct some earnest political activism and campaign for an opposition candidate to Putin
- Protest the Ukraine war outside the Kremlin
I am sure it will be a fun-filled time, full of surprises! And you won't suffer the horrible tyranny of being urged to get vaccinated, just because there's a pandemic - what could possibly be worse, right?
May I ask why do you claim that I view Russia as a beloved place , when I specifically wrote that " None of these points are meant to suggest that the contemporary Russian Federation is a Third Rome like beacon of freedom in comparison to the West or what have you " ?
Also I must ( with all due respect of course ) remark that I find it very much regrettable that you don't seem to think it's possible for one to take a " Third Way " approach to critiquing the West and Russian Federation , as my posts regarding this general subject should clearly demonstrate .
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