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I watched a documentary about the August 1991 coup attempt in the USSR and how Finland reacted to it.
Our government was almost certain that a new civil war would be inevitable, and 20-40 million people might flee the USSR. Finland was preparing to recieve at least 1 million refugees, some experts even claimed that half of the Estonian SSR's population may flee to Finland. When you reflect this on the last year's European refugee crisis 20-40 million seem to be a ludicrous number.
Then the government started to think that who and what will come in place of Gorbachev. Some said that there are three things who never will fall: the Communist party, the military and the KGB. Others said that anything may happen. The Finnish ambassador to Moscow Heikki Talvitie wrote a cable back home: "as repulsive as the thought is, I've decided to invite (Vladimir) Zhirinovsky for lunch. This snake has to be catched as soon as possible". Even he was considered as one who might ascend to power.
Esko Aho who was our prime minister back then told that "I think we knew the military and political capabilities of the USSR quite well, but we had no idea how bad the Soviet economy really was". We had some kind of idea that the USSR is forever and undestructible, and this partly caused our terrible recession a year later.
Furthermore there was the idiological factor. Finland wanted to be the first to recognise the independence of the Baltic States due to the ancient Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, but damn, Denmark and Iceland beat us to it. Talvitie cabled that we are in a hurry and sent Gorba's private phone number in a encrypted cable.
The coup failed? What do you mean, the coup failed? It was the drunk guy on the tank who was leading the coup!
Did Finland really think there would be a civil war? There were rumors like that circulating among some people interested in Russia, in the US, but they never made sense. A civil war of whom against whom? Really overly-dramatic. And remember: Russia's a big place. The last time it had a civil war (or a revolution--whatever you want to call it), it took 5 years to reach all the way across the country, from Europe to the Far Eastern region.
So, Finland, or somebody, came to the conclusion the collapse/coup/whatever was due to the weak economy? I'm not so sure. This is a topic deserving of its own thread. But I think the economy could have kept chugging along, as it always had. I don't think it was about the economy.
The coup failed? What do you mean, the coup failed? It was the drunk guy on the tank who was leading the coup!
Did Finland really think there would be a civil war? There were rumors like that circulating among some people interested in Russia, in the US, but they never made sense. A civil war of whom against whom? Really overly-dramatic. And remember: Russia's a big place. The last time it had a civil war (or a revolution--whatever you want to call it), it took 5 years to reach all the way across the country, from Europe to the Far Eastern region.
So, Finland, or somebody, came to the conclusion the collapse/coup/whatever was due to the weak economy? I'm not so sure. This is a topic deserving of its own thread. But I think the economy could have kept chugging along, as it always had. I don't think it was about the economy.
No no, the Stalinist coup. The Yanayev one.
Yes, the Finnish government really thought that the USSR might fall into a civil war as brutal as the last one. Then Interior Minister Mauri Pekkarinen said that "I was prepared for the worst-case scenario", and still claims that his intelligence was good. I probably believe him though he's a crook. The cables which came from everywhere gave quite contradicting news. Some said that the USSR is finished for good, others said that the USSR will remain but loses all SSR's. Hey, if Russia suffered a devastating civil war once, what reason is there to dismiss this possibility?
Finland was so sure that an undemocratic coup may happen in the USSR, that there was a real discussion if we should recieve the possible refugees or shoot them. The next President and a Nobel Peace Price reciever Martti Ahtisaari is claimed to have said "in theory I don't oppose the shooting of them"-
I have to agree with Ariete on the possibility of civil war in the 1990's. Looking back there was strong and dark forces moving about the country. The problem was no respected and powerful leader came forward to motivate one side or the other. It was definitely possible.
And Ari, Finnish forces were pushed back with little resistance, an agreement was reached which spared Finland from all out war. The Soviet Army all but walked up the Karalian isthmus and had Finland fought then the result would not have been a pretty one. The Soviet Army of 1944 was far and away better than what it was in 1939.
Study Mediterranean/Black Sea history from around 800 to 1800, or you could narrow it down to 1000-1500. But 1850-1853 was important too.
It may be more important for Europe and the US to focus on their own shrinking middle class.
Look, I wouldn't live in Russia if Mr. Putin gave me free land, it's too cold for my blood and the economy/financial system is not nearly deep enough for what I do to make a living.
However, I maintain that a strong and sometimes nasty Russia is also necessary for the robustness of the west, we need a clear mirror to see ourselves in.
Many here don't understand this concept at all.
They think that the collective *West* is some perfection, that doesn't need control or corrections - US in particular.
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Since the 1990s that mirror has been a bit distorted, even upside down on some aspects, like in a fun house, but not so funny: it hasn't been all dividend, ask the shrinking middle class.
Oh but it's shrinking only because "middle class" is moving up the ladder and becomes the "upper class" (according to some.)
How could you have missed it?
Yes, the Finnish government really thought that the USSR might fall into a civil war as brutal as the last one. Then Interior Minister Mauri Pekkarinen said that "I was prepared for the worst-case scenario", and still claims that his intelligence was good. I probably believe him though he's a crook. The cables which came from everywhere gave quite contradicting news. Some said that the USSR is finished for good, others said that the USSR will remain but loses all SSR's. Hey, if Russia suffered a devastating civil war once, what reason is there to dismiss this possibility?
Finland was so sure that an undemocratic coup may happen in the USSR, that there was a real discussion if we should recieve the possible refugees or shoot them. The next President and a Nobel Peace Price reciever Martti Ahtisaari is claimed to have said "in theory I don't oppose the shooting of them"-
Because there was no mobilization among the citizenry. There were no factions. It was something that was going on at the top levels of government. A civil war requires there to be a divided citizenry, like pro-revolutionary forces and anti-, or like the north against the south in US history.
I actually tend to like Russians, and think that I understand enough of Russia's history to see some justification in the distrust of the West, and of the claim to be the 'Third Rome". That said, Russians as a group can be pretty crazy, and none more so than when discussing Russia's nationalistic / imperialist ambitions. You yourself in another thread have just justified the mass Baltic deportations during and after WWII as being done to thieves and murderers exclusively. And I can certainly take criticism of America (I'd better be able to, being married into a Lithuanian family), but that doesn't mean that I am going to accept weird conspiracy theories at face value.
So whatever "crazy" Russians say here are conspiracy theories, but what you know about mass deportations is undisputed truth in-scripted in stone? This again does sound like "Third Rome" thing.
If you married to Lithuanian family than you will obviously have a biased view on those events. I lived in Lithuania myself, they do hate Russians (so most other small pro western nations), but they like what they built for them for free during Soviet Era.
It is undisputed fact that Baltic governments and most regular folks greeted Soviet expansion to those countries, there was no attempt to fight the "occupation" at that time.
It is also undisputed fact that there were substantial gang/rebel activity against new Soviet regime, which resulted in increased violence and death among peaceful population. Soviet power had to take action against those rebels, many of them were killed or deported together with their families.
Saying that Soviets would just deport people out of the blue, and move Russians into their place is just pure lie and plainly stupid. Same type of widely accepted in the west lie like the US won WWII. It's just part of the same old plan on demonizing Russia, I lived in the US for over decade now, it's all same thing - either no information about Russia whatsoever, or a negative one.
So whatever "crazy" Russians say here are conspiracy theories, but what you know about mass deportations is undisputed truth in-scripted in stone? This again does sound like "Third Rome" thing.
If you married to Lithuanian family than you will obviously have a biased view on those events. I lived in Lithuania myself, they do hate Russians (so most other small pro western nations), but they like what they built for them for free during Soviet Era.
It is undisputed fact that Baltic governments and most regular folks greeted Soviet expansion to those countries, there was no attempt to fight the "occupation" at that time.
It is also undisputed fact that there were substantial gang/rebel activity against new Soviet regime, which resulted in increased violence and death among peaceful population. Soviet power had to take action against those rebels, many of them were killed or deported together with their families.
Saying that Soviets would just deport people out of the blue, and move Russians into their place is just pure lie and plainly stupid. Same type of widely accepted in the west lie like the US won WWII.
These 'undisputed facts' are only that in the mind of mindless Kreml controlled bots, the likes of you who keep repeating them over and over. The choices were either let the Russians build military bases in their countries (occupation) or face utter destruction. The Baltic governments opted for the first choice. Debatable if this was the right decision but the odds were heavily against them.
And yes, the Soviets deported people out of the blue, that's the reason why every family back then knew many persons (people still do) who was sent to Siberia. If you were wealthy back then and owned land, Siberia was the place you would most likely end up, also because the poorer people were envious of the ones who were better off and so they snitched them out to the Soviets, saying they were plotting revolts etc. The Soviets were no better than the Nazis, with the exception that they were amateurish, the majority of them not professional soldiers.
It is undisputed fact that Baltic governments and most regular folks greeted Soviet expansion to those countries, there was no attempt to fight the "occupation" at that time.
No. Lithuanians, Latvians and Estonians didn't greet Soviet expansion, and it would have been very strange for them to do so.
Their leaders just thought that Stalin would give them personal security (their hopes were false) and they also understood that Western countries wouldn't help them.
In Estonia for example since 1938 police (before it all began) fixed such speeches in the population: "Nobody will fight for us. Brits are shop-keepers, who will betray us, white people, they think only about their Eastern colonies".
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