[josephhawkinson]

Originally Posted by scamutz

I may have said this before....but many local builders (Tampa) are giving a six month guarantee that prices will not go down any further or the homebuyers will be reimbursed the difference.

In a case like that, where's the harm in buying now? I can tell you from personal experience that in new home communities where the inventory is sold out, prices have already gone back up a bit.

That's another game HBs are playing now, but hopeless. Everybody knows instead of lowering the true price and pissing off other customers who bought the same model few months ago at higher cost builders now give away cars, free upgrades and even cash back to the buyers thus artificially sustaining the outrages prices on paper. That's old now.

and it is pathetic to even claim prices went up a bit. Thats wishful thinking at best. Every month we see prices coming down faster and every month someone says "it has hit the bottom" well I dont buy that anymore , it has worn out.

[scamutz]

Originally Posted by josephhawkinson

and it is pathetic to even claim prices went up a bit. Thats wishful thinking at best. Every month we see prices coming down faster and every month someone says "it has hit the bottom".

Maybe pathetic...but actually spend some time shopping communities around the Tampa Bay area. You'll find that in the most desirable areas, new home builders have no more inventory, and for many, October brought modest base price increases. I'll grant you that they're no where near Pre-Correction pricing...but up nonetheless.

Originally Posted by josephhawkinson

well I dont buy that anymore , it has worn out.

I'd be willing to bet that you weren't buying before either...

[Muggy]

If housing is a "non-issue," then why are there so many "economists" saying it's a "non-issue?"

I don't see anybody writing articles about elephants stealing Escalades and joyriding them into the Erie Canal. That's mostly because this phenomenon is truly a "non-issue."

[RAINBOWWAVES]

Well, PSL is big....I am what is considered east of rt one...so we are very close to the beach without paying waterfront prices...It is still very Florida like here...Oldtimer is not too far from the beach but i am closer...there is alot of gorgeous houses for sale here...it is a great neighborhood too...we are snuggled in a wildlife reserve...there's a lake to boat and fish and there are hiking trails and horse trails and a picnic area...we can walk to it..Hosp is 5 mins away.

[josephhawkinson]

Originally Posted by scamutz

I'd be willing to bet that you weren't buying before either...

Hey you got that right good one there, I should have said people dont buy that anymore.

[lulu]

Thanks...I'll tell them. Is it a friendly safe place?? HOA junk??

Goodness...hmmm, sounds lovely. I'd love to live there, too. Rural & w/beaches, too...I'd think I'd died. Well, that would defeat the purpose of moving wouldn't it??

Speaking for me I've knocked out that area due to insurance issues, if you know what I mean...

Thanks...

[Shores9]

josephhawkinson It is not a good time to buy now despite the recent declines in prices that may mislead you to think you are getting a bargain. 2005 was way over-priced to start with so a tiny drop in pricing is not going to cut it. And I know you will hear the "it has already hit the bottom" "They are not making more land" "it is the time buy there is lots to choose from" BS from a lot of realtor however the truth is I have been hearing the same things every month and prices are STILL going down and looks like it is actually picking up momentum now. and dont bash the media you RE guys you loved it when they were all for your favor. They are simply reporting what is happening.

Comparing FL market to CA or anywehere else in that regard is silly because each region has their own fundementals that shape the RE market. and do I have to say those underlying causes for RE price changes are quite different between CA and FL.

Job market is not strong, especially in FL where now a big chunk of employement is RE related one way or another. Builders, realtors, insurance and mortgage industry all struggling at the moment and they make a big portion of the work force. If houses dont sell (like now) they dont make money.

Bottom line it is NOT the time to buy now, you are looking at at least another 6 months of sharp declines and overall depreciation may be for another two years. Expect 3%+ average declines monthly, which will translate to 18-20% drop in prices from today's prices. Some areas already experienced 10% + declines so it is not a long shot. Prices has to go back to 2001-2002 levels to make sense. Sellers may not like to hear it but this is the way it is going.

Wait for a little while and you wont regret it.

You could be right but I wonder where you get your info!! Example - Have you seen the latest employment report?

I usually like to draw my own conclusions about markets based on the most recent available data. This works fine for me having done so for over than 25years but is not easy to get up and running overnight. As I said in an earlier post good instinct and research is the key

I also read and or subscribe to certain reports that provide trend analysis and opinion, typically these reports are independent of, and are not tied to, the performance of other instruments or investments. One such report (great advise with no agenda) is PMI’s Economic and Real Estate Trends report (free) http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_..._FALL_2006.pdf Another from Moody’s economy.com was just published (not free/very expensive and to date provides the starkest view of the real estate market moving forward). Reports like this can give great insight. Individual economists/experts and newspapers especially the local ones tend to have their own agenda like promoting their companies or selling papers.

There are many factors that contributed to the recent 5 year run-up in housing prices and many that will be the cause of a correction. Most notable in the move up were – low interest rates - buyers coming back to the market after a protracted lull during the late 1980’s in the 1990’s (catch-up effect – a healthy economic expansion and job market. Most notable in the move down will be interest rates- housing affordability – economic conditions/jobs.

As I see it rates continue to be at historical lows and the job market in general is strong. However, affordability is a serious issue. No doubt the market is correcting but how far and for how long is the question. The Moody’s report ''Housing at the Tipping Point,'' (see WSJ article below) indicates price corrections starting under 1% up to 18.7% most of which have already started back in the 1st and 2nd quarter of last year are underway and are projected to continue into 06, 07, or 08 depending on the area.
http://online.wsj.com/public/article...mod=mktw#CHART

If I needed to buy a house “to live in”… unless I knew I was going to save 10% or better and not have to wait 3 years to save it, I would be (and in my case have been) in the market looking. Reason – great availability – more realistic prices and terms. Is 3-5% over the next year enough to make me wait to get what I need – no! I’d rather have my choice of best house and best location availability than try to bottom fish for best price – that’s me!

PS - I don’t see nor do independent experts see 3% monthly 18-20% yearly.

[josephhawkinson]

I watch the housing market daily (including reseaches and local RE association numbers) and 20% decline in FL RE is actually very conservative. Just look at what is happening now, look for my other posts where I provided links to data, I wont repeat myself here. However lets give one example. PSL had 95K median housing prices in 2000, in 2005 it was 250K+ now do you see what I see here?. It has more than doubled in price.

On the other hand wages has lost about 3% value when adjusted against inflation since then. I am not going to even mention what the median wage is in FL , most of you already know. Therefore median sales prices in PSL should be around 130K now by historical appreciation. Add another 20K for location factor because central florida is getting population from other parts of FL and other states, while FL is gaining and losing population due to many factors such as nice weather & high insurance-taxes respectively. Before the median price hits 150 or 160K buying is not a great idea. As far as living in a house and buying now, If I see a deal where I pay 60 cents on a dollar I may consider it. Then it is a deal, I recently saw DrHorton listing their brand new houses discounted from 400K to 300K and from 320 to 230 in West Palm Beach. so that shows you the trend.

Everybody was saying people are moving to FL in great numbers (census report also proves that this is partially true) and housing is going up because of that however now we know that there was a great portion of (and I mean great) house flippers and investors who drove up prices insanely. Now that they are gone or stuck with their homes, and many with interest only ARMs that are adjusting, they have no option but sell. Sell at loss or lose everything and they go for the smaller loss. That's why you see tons of houses listing and people trying to unload their houses with little success. Cancellations on pre-conststruction deals are rampant , somewhere around 30% or more in many cases. Condo market is suffering in a greater degree and for someone to ask where I get my news must be living in Mars. Wherever you turn there is news about housing bubble and NAR just made an announcement after a long denial period that housing is tanking and prices has to go down and it is actually good that prices are going down Faceless crooks, after knowinly lying to people and painting rosy pictures even during months where RE people for crying for a sales call they still reassured the masses that this only temp. now what they say is 180 degrees different.

Anyways dont ask me where I get my news , ask yourself how you dont hear about this stuff.

[Shores9]

Joseph – anyone can use a specific market or segment to illustrate their case. Fact is Florida un-employment is below the national average and yes wages are lower also but so is the median cost of a home.

Insofar as the doubling of value I agree that it has gone too far but consider that taken over a longer time frame (and remember real estate is a long term investment) you might see a different picture. Considering inflation in your expectations for performance over the long term a house purchased in 1970 for 100K is worth 500k today using the government BLS statistics (data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl you do the math). For the past 25 years we barley, if any have seen housing appreciation in inflation adjusted terms. What we have seen in the last 5 years is a long overdue upward adjustment that went a little too far.

As to your point about people moving to Florida… Census data is a snapshot of history. We all know that the boomers are taking over. A boomer turns 50 every 7 seconds – In 1955 alone 4,097,000 boomers were born Today they are 51 years old and that’s just from the year 1955. From 1945 to 1965 (the boomer years) we had on average 4 million births per YEAR. We are just starting now to see the tip of the iceberg and even if we [Florida] see a small number of them, and we will by virtue of Florida’s natural beauty alone, it has the potential for significant impact.

House flippers/opportunists rode the wave and added to the madness but when the excess inventory starts to get taken-up and it is (slowly) we will be back to an otherwise normal market.

Pre-construction sales cancellations did move higher and new home sales dipped in June and July but [builders] came back in August per the government’s New Home Sales stat.

Again I ask “Where do you get your info”? What Tread? Either way it’s good to hear other views and opinions

[shannon94]

Originally Posted by Shores9

Muggy,

True – herd mentality in both directions. Also True I am a Realtor. And again true there is a slowdown underway [back to normal thank god}.
With more than just a few years Wall Street trading experience (15 yrs money markets) as well as 10 in real estate I’ve learned a thing or two about markets, trends, and the economy.

A few comments to consider:
Don’t get in [any] market you don’t understand or can’t afford to be in.
Good instinct and research is the key.
Perception can be reality - perceptions can change quickly
Realtors provide a market forum, facilitate transactions, and help normalize the market. Without their work and the information they share via MLS boards the general public would be flying blind.

I think alot of people have being flying blind where real estate is concerned!!