[Shores9]

Originally Posted by TINKERBELL

We've had our house on the market since March, dropped the price considerably, its under market value right now, we live on a lake, nice big yard, decent size house, nice neighborhood, but still can't sell.

Nobody wants to make a mistake especially when it comes to a major investment like a house and most homebuyer have little investment experience. That being said there’s a lot of paranoia about anything getting so much attention like real estate. Bubble theories and doom and gloomers abound in this environment. They’ve been saying for years that the market couldn’t possibly go any higher and now they are finally right. Now they are trying to say the market will crash… we will see but I don’t think so. Fundamentals do not support a crash. However this is little comfort if you need to sell now.

Don’t let “sound byte news” get the best of you! Unfortunately, most people get their news and information from sources that filter it down to a manageable size with a tilt for the highest impact and as such you wind-up with an incomplete representation (bits and bytes) of the whole picture. The problem only gets worse when ill informed people make it the topic of everyday conversation or flame forums like this.

Two things are keeping people away; 1 – affordability and 2- paranoia.

Affordability has most defiantly been stretched to the max but if you do the math housing prices are still affordable (barley) A correction (downward) in prices of about 3-5% some of which has already happened in most areas of the country will help better align the affordability issue and increase in wages will (over time) make correct any remaining disparity.

Insofar as the paranoia thing… Typically the knee jerk reaction to any uncertainty is to pull back and wait. It’s been almost a year that we have entered the correction phase and the sky has not fallen. Barring a major catastrophe buyers will return and when builders and investors move their inventory the re-sale market will pick-up in a strong fashion however appreciation will probably be relatively flat for some time.. I don’t think we are too far away from this as there are many other positive things happing around us. Gas prices are dropping - unemployment is stable at extremely low levels. The stock market is hold its ground/making gains. Interest rates are still at historical lows.

[josephhawkinson]

after all the rosy talk, is it really too hard to comprehend this is in fact a housing bubble (about to burst) thanks to Greenspan and his crazy money printing machine (FED) to bail out the government from the recession caused by the stock bubble burst. All he did was diverting the cheap money from one crazy bubble to another. In historic terms affordable house meant Income x 3. Now I think income x 7-8 is affordable to some , thanks to ARMs and interest only junk mortgage options. I dont think it is affordable and you know what so do those "real" buyers who dont buy at the moment. However one wants to spin it housing is not affordable at all at the moment and the current RE sales data proves just that ,since all the investor/speculators are gone. Sept sales numbers are coming out from local markets and hey do I have to tell you?

They dont look that rosy.

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by josephhawkinson

However one wants to spin it housing is not affordable at all at the moment and the current RE sales data proves just that ,since all the investor/speculators are gone. Sept sales numbers are coming out from local markets and hey do I have to tell you?

They dont look that rosy.

Lisa, How can you say that? houses are not selling?,

And hey - Yes maybe you do! [have to tell me] where you come up with this stuff.

In Pinellas, Hillsborough, and Pasco Counties for the first 3 quarters of 05 there were 48,328 closed residential transactions, for the same period this year there were 34,350. That a 29% decrease in activity year over year. Considering that the last 2 years were super hot a decline is expected. Further, I hear you consistently say houses are not selling. 34,350 are a lot of SOLD homes and Just to further put this in perspective during the same period and in the same market place in 2002 there were 29,644 homes sold. That makes the number of homes sold in 2006 14% higher than 2002. Tampa MLS stats

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by josephhawkinson

thanks to Greenspan and his crazy money printing machine (FED)
They dont look that rosy.

Ps Treasury prints money not the Fed

[shannon94]

Originally Posted by Shores9

Nobody wants to make a mistake especially when it comes to a major investment like a house and most homebuyer have little investment experience. That being said there’s a lot of paranoia about anything getting so much attention like real estate. Bubble theories and doom and gloomers abound in this environment. They’ve been saying for years that the market couldn’t possibly go any higher and now they are finally right. Now they are trying to say the market will crash… we will see but I don’t think so. Fundamentals do not support a crash. However this is little comfort if you need to sell now.

Don’t let “sound byte news” get the best of you! Unfortunately, most people get their news and information from sources that filter it down to a manageable size with a tilt for the highest impact and as such you wind-up with an incomplete representation (bits and bytes) of the whole picture. The problem only gets worse when ill informed people make it the topic of everyday conversation or flame forums like this.

Two things are keeping people away; 1 – affordability and 2- paranoia.

Affordability has most defiantly been stretched to the max but if you do the math housing prices are still affordable (barley) A correction (downward) in prices of about 3-5% some of which has already happened in most areas of the country will help better align the affordability issue and increase in wages will (over time) make correct any remaining disparity.

Insofar as the paranoia thing… Typically the knee jerk reaction to any uncertainty is to pull back and wait. It’s been almost a year that we have entered the correction phase and the sky has not fallen. Barring a major catastrophe buyers will return and when builders and investors move their inventory the re-sale market will pick-up in a strong fashion however appreciation will probably be relatively flat for some time.. I don’t think we are too far away from this as there are many other positive things happing around us. Gas prices are dropping - unemployment is stable at extremely low levels. The stock market is hold its ground/making gains. Interest rates are still at historical lows.

lol...and how long do you think gas prices will stay down? I'm sure until the election is over...........

[Muggy]

I'm done debating with people. Me and my cash are sitting this one out. Whether or not sales are up or down is irrelevant to me. I can afford a house and I am not going to buy one. Renting is a way better deal in Pinellas County right now.

So I need to re-state my position to the original question: no, I am not looking to buy. I'm protecting my assets at the current time by avoiding real estate.

There is no insurance crisis for me. There is no tax crisis for me. I don't have to worry about hurricanes.

[NSHL10]

Originally Posted by Shores9

And hey - Yes maybe you do! [have to tell me] where you come up with this stuff.

In Pinellas, Hillsborough, and Pasco Counties for the first 3 quarters of 05 there were 48,328 closed residential transactions, for the same period this year there were 34,350. That a 29% decrease in activity year over year. Considering that the last 2 years were super hot a decline is expected. Further, I hear you consistently say houses are not selling. 34,350 are a lot of SOLD homes and Just to further put this in perspective during the same period and in the same market place in 2002 there were 29,644 homes sold. That makes the number of homes sold in 2006 14% higher than 2002. Tampa MLS stats

But isn't all real estate local in nature? Pasco maybe hot, but South Florida is not, and comparing the 2 is like comparing apples and oranges. The real comparison should be to NY. Traditionally, this is where most of the FL implants have come from, but now NC is all anyone is talking about up here. I can tell you that the LI market is dead! The new idea from Citizen's to penalize snowbirds with higher insurance rates will surely further dampen interest in Florida real estate.

[Muggy]

Look, there is a lot of emotion flying around regarding this subject. The truth is that the bubble is bad for everyone except those that timed it right. Good for them, but houses shouldn't be played like stocks. I don't loose money on futures because I am not an active particpant in the futures market. Unfortunately, since we all need shelter, housing hits you regardless.

I know I am right sitting this one out. I have removed the emotion and I am using pure numbers: I live in a 1/2 million dollar property by the beach that I rent for less than or about (what I estimate) taxes and insurance. I don't pay the mortgage and I live here. So, I can rent and throw rent money away. Or, I can own and throw taxes and insurance away (and pay the mortgage). By renting I keep a substantial portion of my income. Much more than if I owned.

I really wish the housing mania had never started; many are about to pay for the actions of a greedy few.

Not enough proof? I will be moving in a few weeks into a friend's house... a friend that lost his job and had to move and can't sell his house. I am renting at way-below market value so my homie can avoid foreclosure. I may hove to move if he sells, but so be it.

I would like to pretend that everything is o.k., but anecdotally, it couldn't be any worse. This could just be the tip...

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by Muggy

I don't loose money on futures because I am not an active particpant in the futures market.

I take it you weren’t playing natural gas futures

[josephhawkinson]

Originally Posted by Shores9

Ps Treasury prints money not the Fed

hey you exactly knew what I meant, pull a dollar from your pocket read it "Federal Reserve Note" it reads. FED sets the interest rates, FED is a private banking system, it is not part of the government and yes it does print our money (through treasury). Wake up and smell the coffee. your desperate attacks to debunk the ALL EVIDENT HOUSING BUBBLE BURST is not funny anymore.

it is a long read but , this may open your eyes:

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/19785/...fall-next.html

anybody who is not aware of the dire housing situation please READ the ABOVE article, it summarizes nicely.

Secondly, I say housing is NOT affordable at the moment and Shores9 starts comparing 2006 to 2002. Last time I checked RE cheerleaders were comparing previous year to current year. Does YOY (year over year) mean anything to you? I am sure housing is better than 1930 at the moment but the way it is heading is obvious. Sept numbers are coming out and and most places it is worse than August, sharper YOY declines. Well I heard many say it has hit the bottom but really, every month I hear the same thing. (ironic?)

Shores9 I am not going to assume anything but are you a REALTOR? or are you trying to sell your home? or do you work in a RE related job (insurance, mortgage, construction etc)