[Shores9]

josephhawkinson - look for my other posts where I provided links to data, I wont repeat myself here.

I reserved further comment until I had a chance to read some of your previous posts . Obviously you’re stellar selection of news sources - The Herald Tribune, The St Petersburg Times, The Palm Beach Post, retired Analyst Thomas Lawler, The Sun Sentinel, The Miami Herald - are at the root of your understanding or lack thereof. These are local papers struggling to make a buck and will print practically anything said by anyone if it will sell a paper.

Maybe you should at least try reading the WSJ, MSNBC, CNN, Reuters or similar for a more balanced view - you might have found this statement from former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan quoted as saying this past Friday:

“The U.S. housing market appears to be emerging from its recent travails and the “worst may well be over,”

Somehow I don’t this Mr. Greenspan has suddenly turned Real Estate agent and is now trying to talk-up the market to sell all you ill informed folk a home

I’ll repeat some of my previous advise for your benefit.
Don’t get in [any] market you don’t understand or can’t afford to be in.
Good instinct and research is the key.

[josephhawkinson]

Shores9,

you seem like a decent person so I will not bash you for quoting Greenspan. I will not say what I think of him because I dont want to get banned. but you get the idea. His remarks are the last and ( I mean last) to look at for any value or direction. I believe you will be around for a little more, let's hold our breath and wait few more months and see who is right or wrong. Appareantly you dont see what I see and I dont see what you think I should see.

The worst, in my opinion, is not over yet and in fact housing is just starting to collapse. I can hear the cracks. I firmly hold my view that housing is a falling knife at the moment and "soft landing" like some advertise is only wishful thinking. Please explain your rationals to realtors who are not getting phone calls , they will be glad to hear the phone ring. There is quite a bit of denial going among the sellers who thought 20% appreciation per year is just normal. NAR people were saying just last year that housing is now on a higher plateau and people should get used to the higher housing prices. Well they say totally different things now and you know that.

I restate my belief that housing has alot of room to go down and buyers got nothing to lose if they choose to wait. Especially FL being one of the most overpriced markets will go down sharper and faster. Sales data for the last 6 months is evident and it is going to get worse, in my opinion, as we march towards winter.
I will update this thread time to time.

[mich2fla]

Keep in mind Alan Greenspan retired back in January 2006. Dr. Ben Bernanke replaced him.

Mr Bernanke's goal is to reduce the number of 125% home loans out there and get people to reduce their overall debt by raising the interest rates. Is it working? It's too early to tell right now.

Interest rates even at 6.5% is still a bargain!

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by josephhawkinson

Shores9,

you seem like a decent person so I will not bash you for quoting Greenspan. I will not say what I think of him because I dont want to get banned. but you get the idea. His remarks are the last and ( I mean last) to look at for any value or direction. I believe you will be around for a little more, let's hold our breath and wait few more months and see who is right or wrong. Appareantly you dont see what I see and I dont see what you think I should see.

The worst, in my opinion, is not over yet and in fact housing is just starting to collapse. I can hear the cracks. I firmly hold my view that housing is a falling knife at the moment and "soft landing" like some advertise is only wishful thinking. Please explain your rationals to realtors who are not getting phone calls , they will be glad to hear the phone ring. There is quite a bit of denial going among the sellers who thought 20% appreciation per year is just normal. NAR people were saying just last year that housing is now on a higher plateau and people should get used to the higher housing prices. Well they say totally different things now and you know that.

I restate my belief that housing has alot of room to go down and buyers got nothing to lose if they choose to wait. Especially FL being one of the most overpriced markets will go down sharper and faster. Sales data for the last 6 months is evident and it is going to get worse, in my opinion, as we march towards winter.
I will update this thread time to time.

I agree, we will get a much clearer picture in the coming months (especially after the holidays) and you may be right but I don’t think so. This is exactly what makes a market.

[MrTudo]

Meanhile that house I mentioned, which is by far the nicest one anywhere near 300K in the area is still for sale. It's now 9+ months.

Worst is over? LOL.

As I told the realtor, prices will have to come down significantly to motivate me to part with cash. And frankly, they ARE going to continue raising interest rates so as to finance their socialist programs and war. When CD's start paying 8-9% where do you think monies going to go? Real estate?

Not hardly

[josephhawkinson]

Well here is some news from a bigger news source to satisfy some readers:

Moderator cut: copy write issues. You can post link, but not the article

cant be clearer than this I guess. If anybody these builders are the first to jump on good news or at least hope for good news in order to save their stocks however like a choir they all sing the same song.

[josephhawkinson]

let's post some more links about the subject , and more from big! news sources.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/10/09/real...mare/index.htm

http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/061009/18080_id.html (broken link)

http://www.examiner.com/a-333899~Price_reductions_key_in_competitive_housing _market.html (broken link)

http://money.cnn.com/2006/10/05/news/economy/bc.economy.fed.plosser.reut/index.htm (broken link)

http://lifestyle.msn.com/MindBodyand...94839&GT1=8681

now all the above links give you an idea about mortagage issues, risk of int retaes going up thus increasing the pressure on housing prices. Now more links to local observations:

http://www.lasvegassun.com/sunbin/stories/nevada/2006/oct/07/100710550.html (broken link)
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/business...tate-headlines

http://www.sptimes.com/2006/10/09/Co...n_the_wa.shtml

http://www.boston.com/news/local/art...ns_in_southie/

just copy and paste these links to your browser to read the news.

[Stargazing Lisa]

community of 356 houses - very very reasonable...were selling for $235 for 2 BR/2B villas...surrounded by 4 and 500,000 houses 5 miles from the beach. Guess what? 30 houses for sale AND NOT SELLING in months and months even with price drops.

I agree with those who say the prices are not thru falling, and the foreclosures and bankruptcies have not even gotten serious yet, but they will.

BUT, to say they're going to go back to 2001 levels is dreaming. the houses in Palm Beach County that were 150,000 in 2001 are now 300 to 500,000. They'll drop some but you're never going to see 2001 prices again here...

Oh, and you'll pardon me for sayig, but some of the realtors on here sound like they're still selling and hyping. I wish they wouldn't.

Meanwhile, I'd like to sell and move to North Central Fl.

Anybody know anything about Citrus County?

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by josephhawkinson

Well here is some news from a bigger news source to satisfy some readers

II thought we were going to take a deep breath and wait... but since you insist!!! I will address your comments and links (at least the more reputable of them) one at a time

First as for your initial post. Most corporations offer guidance as to the conditions that affect their business and profits… no surprise the home builders have to re-adjust their guidance and reporting. What you may not realize is that home builders (at least the larger ones) can easily slow production to meet demand. If you really look at this the fire-sale deals that make headline news are only in select markets and only on select products. The national builders Lennar, KB, D.R. Horton etc. and medium to large size regional builders are cash rich!!! They will weather this market without significant price reductions. Small builders are another story.

Comment on Links to follow

[TINKERBELL]

We've had our house on the market since March, dropped the price considerably, its under market value right now, we live on a lake, nice big yard, decent size house, nice neighborhood, but still can't sell.