[TBMorgan]

Originally Posted by Corrie22

Michael was an incredibly well behaved hurricane....from the time it left Mexico on Oct 6...until land fall on Oct 10
...Michael stayed almost exactly on the black line in the center of the cone of death
and where it was projected to go from the very first...is exactly where it went

..and that really messes with people's heads....when the NHC calls one this accurately..that far out...people think they can do it every time
so the next time..when they call one across the state..into the gulf...and into Alabama....the same number of days out
...people think they are right again and know what they are talking about..and that black line counts and means something

Michael start to finish > https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/201...cone_with_line

Dorian total opposite, all over the place, up to now > https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/201...cone_with_line

I'm afraid with all the hype from the media and this one (Dorian) has been less than expected as far as hitting the USA (of course The Bahamas got hit badly), most people will take the warnings lightly.

[aax]

Dorian: We will never forget

[Charlie Allnut]

Originally Posted by TBMorgan

I'm afraid with all the hype from the media and this one (Dorian) has been less than expected as far as hitting the USA (of course The Bahamas got hit badly), most people will take the warnings lightly.

Over the years, people have always questioned the media hype and forecasts in post-Hurricane discussion. The media is a business that relies on viewership. Forecasts are just a judgement of a possibility.

In my opinion, long term Floridians in general understand those facts, and do take the storms seriously with preparations ready before Hurricane season.

However, with over 900 people moving to the Sunshine State daily, these new residents are more likely to get caught up in the Hysteria due to lack of Hurricane experience. It is like moving 100 thousand Miami residents to Buffalo right before the blizzard dumps 27 inches of snow. The media will have everyone of them scurrying due to the impending Snowmageddon!

[boy3365]

Originally Posted by Corrie22

Michael was an incredibly well behaved hurricane....from the time it left Mexico on Oct 6...until land fall on Oct 10
...Michael stayed almost exactly on the black line in the center of the cone of death
and where it was projected to go from the very first...is exactly where it went

..and that really messes with people's heads....when the NHC calls one this accurately..that far out...people think they can do it every time
so the next time..when they call one across the state..into the gulf...and into Alabama....the same number of days out
...people think they are right again and know what they are talking about..and that black line counts and means something

Michael start to finish > https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/201...cone_with_line

Dorian total opposite, all over the place, up to now > https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/201...cone_with_line

Thanks for sharing those links. I didn't know they had photos/videos of the initial tracks to what actually ends up happening with storms.

[CrowGirl]

Originally Posted by TBMorgan

I'm afraid with all the hype from the media and this one (Dorian) has been less than expected as far as hitting the USA (of course The Bahamas got hit badly), most people will take the warnings lightly.

It seems like the media cannot get the balance right. I remember the 2004 season in FLorida, which was really active. We were seking out information - it was not stuffed down our throats 24x7. In some ways I am glad to see storms being given more "respect" than they did then. I think Katrina the next year was an inflection point. Storms were not given the attention they should before then. Katrina was not taken seriously enough and was such a devastating storm, that since then it seems like when there is a storm it is over-hyped. There is a balance somewhere in the middle that I think some governors and other officials have managed to make but the media has not. We don't know everything yet, and forecasts are not perfect. But they get better every year. Storms should be taken seriously because they all retain an element of unpredictability. But the 24x7 over-sensationalizing doesn't help us get there. I fear that it will have the effect of numbing people to the point where they fail to take storms for the risks they are.