[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by MOforthewin

The ensembles are the ones to watch long range. 18z gfs trending east, some even just east of FL. IMO big bend on south gets it but whatever it is will be huge. Note, if it moves slow enough over Cuba like Irma did I expect it to be much weaker than this. Remember the GFS and Europeam models kept pumping out 890mb storms with Irma hitting FL.

That would be perfect if you moved it 45 miles closer to me for a CAT5. Give me some gust to 80mph and some real rain for once.

[Corrie22]

right now.....the GFS has it hitting Tampa....dead center...on the 29th

[beachmouse]

Originally Posted by Corrie22

right now.....the GFS has it hitting Tampa....dead center...on the 29th

So the doomsday model that didn’t play out when Charley wobbled south a little before landfall.

[FL_Expert]

Originally Posted by beachmouse

So the doomsday model that didn’t play out when Charley wobbled south a little before landfall.

Yep, I’ve come to learn these models are good but not great. They showed Irma making a direct hit on Tampa in 24hrs, then it turned and hit Marco Island. I would have thought just a day out it would have a solid track but there’s just a large margin for error even close to landfall.

Im not concerned about this storm yet, but I’ll keep a close eye on it.

[Corrie22]

.....they all have the intensity up there though

[FL_Expert]

Originally Posted by Corrie22

.....they all have the intensity up there though

My understanding is the models aren’t very good at forecasting intensity. Unfortunately, they seem to routinely underestimate it. I’d hate to think that’s the case here, but tropical systems are going to love the 90f water out in the gulf.

[MOforthewin]

12z european model has a major large major landfall Tampa area. SWFL on up to tampa would have cat2 gusts with that.

Imagine the insurance industry if a large in size cat4 hits tampa next week!!

[Corrie22]

Originally Posted by FL_Expert

My understanding is the models aren’t very good at forecasting intensity. Unfortunately, they seem to routinely underestimate it. I’d hate to think that’s the case here, but tropical systems are going to love the 90f water out in the gulf.

HMON is the hands down winner on intensity.....

[Corrie22]

Originally Posted by MOforthewin

12z european model has a major large major landfall Tampa area. SWFL on up to tampa would have cat2 gusts with that.

Imagine the insurance industry if a large in size cat4 hits tampa next week!!

check the intensity on that.....not a major....barely a Cat 1

....but it is sitting right on top of someone's house that's been begging for one.....LOL

[LKJ1988]

I'm ready for some action after all these years of nothing. If if is a CAT5 with gust to 230mph and it takes out my house like a silly mouse you guys won't see me posting here anymore. I will end it once the roof blows away ray. Since these storms know i want one they always go to TX or LA to tick me off. Way too early to know anything at this time slime. I gotta run some figs and see what the upper levels will offer up 6 days from now. Plus i am no where near Tampa and living in another flip house on the gulf.