[Corrie22]

other models have it going further west.....


https://www.ventusky.com/?p=24.3;-55...=20220930/2100

[beach43ofus]

Originally Posted by Corrie22

other models have it going further west.....


https://www.ventusky.com/?p=24.3;-55...=20220930/2100

What is the probability of this scenario?

[Corrie22]

right now.....like throwing darts blindfolded...it doesn't even exist yet....only in the computers

When I posted this morning...the models had it going right up the Keys....Miami....Palm Beach....as a 3 or 4

...the lastest runs have it way out in the gulf....and stalling in the north gulf

but I at least got the generator out...serviced it....and it's ready

[beach43ofus]

I read the GFS model, used by NOAA, is 89% accurate upto 5 days out, but after that, it didn't say. I'm guessing it falls way off after the 5th day.

[Corrie22]

The American (GFS) barely did better than the European (ECMWF) last year....they are both weather models...not hurricane models

GFS did real poor on the weather last year.....but a tad better on hurricanes

ECMWF did great on the weather.....and just a tad worse on hurricanes

....that tells you it's all still a WAG

remember they both had Irma jumping all over the state....

here's the graphics on Irma > https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/201..._line_and_wind

[LKJ1988]

Not a chance lance for my area. I pray every year and never anything. Nothing ever comes close to my part of the state nate. 59 years living here and never even a twig blown off a tree lee. I am 42" short on rainfall the last 3 years. As the state gets hotter and hotter we will see less and less rain jess year round. Plus that bum link the OP posted is nothing to put any stock in. If ya guys wanna know just ask me.

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by Corrie22

The American (GFS) barely did better than the European (ECMWF) last year....they are both weather models...not hurricane models

GFS did real poor on the weather last year.....but a tad better on hurricanes

ECMWF did great on the weather.....and just a tad worse on hurricanes

....that tells you it's all still a WAG

remember they both had Irma jumping all over the state....

here's the graphics on Irma > https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/201..._line_and_wind

The ensembles are the ones to watch long range. 18z gfs trending east, some even just east of FL. IMO big bend on south gets it but whatever it is will be huge. Note, if it moves slow enough over Cuba like Irma did I expect it to be much weaker than this. Remember the GFS and Europeam models kept pumping out 890mb storms with Irma hitting FL.

[beachmouse]

I had a look at the 10 day local forecast for the western panhandle. A week from now, we’re getting dew points back into the high 60s and unless they’re moving really fast, hurricanes seem to start to struggle in the GoMex when the dew points are dipping below 70F.

I remember Charley hooking towards Punta Gorda coincided with a freak August relatively dry spell in the Panhandle when we were getting lovely overnight lows around 65F.

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by beachmouse

I had a look at the 10 day local forecast for the western panhandle. A week from now, we’re getting dew points back into the high 60s and unless they’re moving really fast, hurricanes seem to start to struggle in the GoMex when the dew points are dipping below 70F.

I remember Charley hooking towards Punta Gorda coincided with a freak August relatively dry spell in the Panhandle when we were getting lovely overnight lows around 65F.

I remember that summer. I lived back in St. Louis then and we had a lot of days with highs only in the low 80s. Not uncommon in STL to get a few spells where the high hits only 80-82 but not many days like that.

Anyway, it was more of an October path than August with October like weather pattern.

Also, larger in size storms like Katrina seem to struggle too up there. Why? They suck in continental air many hours before landfall versus a smaller storm like Camille that isn't. Michael for example was not a huge storm size wise.

Water was warm for Katrina but it was sucking in drier air.

It also seems that storms cat 1 and cat2 seem to not be affected as much up there for some reason near shore. Cat4 and cat5 storms need great conditions.

Oh and I think Katrina was still 140 at first landfall. Stacy Stewart back in 2005 a few months after gave me a very VERY long and detailed email reply with his opinion on why Katrina should not be downgraded (they were still writing the report.) he is one of them who still thinks it was cat4 at landfall.

At this MS landfall it was still cat4 too I think. The wind damage in MS looked like low end cat4. Most of the major hurricane force winds stayed offshore in LA, hence less wind damage. But no surge damage in MS looked like a bomb.

[FL_Expert]

Originally Posted by MOforthewin

The ensembles are the ones to watch long range. 18z gfs trending east, some even just east of FL. IMO big bend on south gets it but whatever it is will be huge. Note, if it moves slow enough over Cuba like Irma did I expect it to be much weaker than this. Remember the GFS and Europeam models kept pumping out 890mb storms with Irma hitting FL.

Geez, pressure looks like a Cat 4 at that stage. Hopefully this model turns out to be wrong!