[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by beachmouse

So the doomsday model that didn’t play out when Charley wobbled south a little before landfall.

That was another miss for Tampa since we got nothing from it. It was such a small core system that winds were only strong 30 miles from the center. Always a miss the 59 years i have lived in the Tampa area.

[beachmouse]

Originally Posted by LKJ1988

I'm ready for some action after all these years of nothing.

I was about 60 miles west of cat 5 at landfall Michael and I’ll say you really really don’t want to be any closer that that when it comes to action.

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by beachmouse

I was about 60 miles west of cat 5 at landfall Michael and I’ll say you really really don’t want to be any closer that that when it comes to action.

Just depends on the storm norm. Some are very small core systems with the strongest winds only 30 miles from the center and some are much bigger.

It will all come down to the high pressure system to the east and a dig down from the northwest to tell us where the storm will go bro. AND IT'S NOT EVEN ANYTHING RIGHT NOW.

Down stream i see a upper level low that could screw it all up and send it to the west gulf. So it is all in the timing and what the high to the east will do. If it builds in and the dig down from the north west moves faster it could mean some action for the west coast of FL.
But if the house goes i am done as i am not going months without A/C in the super hot months of Oct thru Dec as we no longer get cold weather in my area.

[Rabflmom]

Originally Posted by Corrie22

right now.....like throwing darts blindfolded...it doesn't even exist yet....only in the computers

When I posted this morning...the models had it going right up the Keys....Miami....Palm Beach....as a 3 or 4

...the lastest runs have it way out in the gulf....and stalling in the north gulf

but I at least got the generator out...serviced it....and it's ready

Ok, I am lost . I clicked on the first link but only saw Fiona on the satellite map. I use the Ventusky site but for local weather. Hpw do you see paths of hurricanes on it?

Sites I watch aren't forecasting much except a red x which just means it can develop to a TS wind level eventually.

[FL_Expert]

Originally Posted by LKJ1988

Just depends on the storm norm. Some are very small core systems with the strongest winds only 30 miles from the center and some are much bigger.

It will all come down to the high pressure system to the east and a dig down from the northwest to tell us where the storm will go bro. AND IT'S NOT EVEN ANYTHING RIGHT NOW.

Down stream i see a upper level low that could screw it all up and send it to the west gulf. So it is all in the timing and what the high to the east will do. If it builds in and the dig down from the north west moves faster it could mean some action for the west coast of FL.
But if the house goes i am done as i am not going months without A/C in the super hot months of Oct thru Dec as we no longer get cold weather in my area.

That’s actually a really good point. I was looking at the latest model ensembles and they’re either going into the eastern gulf or tracking west into the Yucatan. Interestingly, the officially model tracks seem to split the difference and say the storm is headed more towards the central gulf (ie Alabama) which seems misleading since the individual ensembles aren’t favoring that.

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by FL_Expert

That’s actually a really good point. I was looking at the latest model ensembles and they’re either going into the eastern gulf or tracking west into the Yucatan. Interestingly, the officially model tracks seem to split the difference and say the storm is headed more towards the central gulf (ie Alabama) which seems misleading since the individual ensembles aren’t favoring that.

OP thinks it was gonna hit Tampa and that is not gonna happen. You can't go by these sites dwight and put any stock in them 8+ days out let alone 2 days. I just use my head fred since i know way more than any of these silly models. 59 years of eating and sleeping weather and see miss after miss gives me the edge on knowing it's not. gonna happen.

What we gotta watch out for is in Oct with a boil up south of Cuba coming up the pipe vs what this so called system is gonna do.

These silly models flip flop hour by hour and no one is gonna say it's gonna hit this city or that city kitty and be right.

[beach43ofus]

The way I'm interpreting this model shows it would be a Cat 1 or 2, & would hit the Alabama-Florida line 9 days from now on the 30th.

I just kept changing the date into the future to see it develop & move West and then North.

This many days out, models like this are low probability guesstimates. 5 days out, they are much more accurate, (I read ~89%), so we have to wait 4 more days to have a good chance of knowing what will happen.

[Corrie22]

Originally Posted by Rabflmom

Ok, I am lost . I clicked on the first link but only saw Fiona on the satellite map. I use the Ventusky site but for local weather. Hpw do you see paths of hurricanes on it?

Sites I watch aren't forecasting much except a red x which just means it can develop to a TS wind level eventually.

down at the bottom.....is the calendar....open it up...and advance the days...where it says change date

far left bar.....click on wind speed

bottom left corner.....model....look at GFS and ECMWF

They are both weather models they're trying to adapt to predicting hurricanes....GFS (American) got a major tweak last year....and barely beat out the ECMWF (European) but not by much...and the ECMWF is the best weather model by a long shot

Keep in mind....it doesn't even exist right now....only in the computer models

[Corrie22]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

The way I'm interpreting this model shows it would be a Cat 1 or 2, & would hit the Alabama-Florida line 9 days from now on the 30th.

I just kept changing the date into the future to see it develop & move West and then North.

This many days out, models like this are low probability guesstimates. 5 days out, they are much more accurate, (I read ~89%), so we have to wait 4 more days to have a good chance of knowing what will happen.

GFS has been consistent with it hitting Panama City.....

ECMWF has been swinging left to right.....right now has it hitting Naples on the 29th

again keep in mind....people are feeding this into the models....and it doesn't even really exist in real life right now.....and where they initiate development makes a huge difference days out

[beachmouse]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

The way I'm interpreting this model shows it would be a Cat 1 or 2, & would hit the Alabama-Florida line 9 days from now on the 30th.

I just have problems with a northern Gulf solution when I look at the forecast and see an overnight low of 62F on 9/29 even if the forecast is also showing rain. That kind of cooling is usually the sign that fall is settling in here and that the window for storms is closing.